Unitil Corporation (UTL)

NYSEUtilitiesDiversified UtilitiesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$55.15+0.16%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Unitil Corporation’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	176.95M
EPS	—	1.19
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	607.37M
EPS	—	3.285
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	621.04M
EPS	—	3.475

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain dividend growth	A primary condition in Unitil Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is Dividend per share >= $0.47 in 2026-Q1.	Intact	Dividend per share falls below $0.47 in 2026-Q1	Dividend per share: $0.47 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Dividend per share >= $0.47 in 2026-Q1. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 3, 20260.475 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: d43041c3-1d10-4cb4-af8f-d05b29b51d58. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Management has stated dividend growth as a priority in at least 3 quarters including 2025-Q3 through 2026-Q2. The dividend per share increased from $0.45 in 2025-Q3 to $0.475 in 2026-Q1 and Q2, reflecting a 5.6% annualized increase to $1.90. The payout ratio target remains 55% to 65%. The trajectory shows consistent dividend growth aligned with management's stated capital allocation priorities. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
EPS near guidance	Earnings per share are expected near $3.28 in 2026.	Intact	EPS falls below $3.2 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $0.26 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS between $3.2 and $3.36 in FY26. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q2. Source published Aug 3, 20260.26 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: d43041c3-1d10-4cb4-af8f-d05b29b51d58. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Increase operating income	A primary condition in Unitil Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is Operating income >= $55.9M next 4 quarters.	Intact	Operating income falls below $46.2M next 4 quarters	Operating income: $15.4M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating income >= $55.9M next 4 quarters. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 3, 202615,400,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: d43041c3-1d10-4cb4-af8f-d05b29b51d58. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Management emphasized increasing operating income in at least 4 quarters from 2025-Q3 to 2026-Q2. Operating income rose from $7.0 million in 2025-Q3 to $15.4 million in 2026-Q2, showing improvement though with some quarterly variability. This indicates progress in operational performance consistent with management's stated priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Expand through strategic acquisitions	Unitil grows by buying strategic assets, shown by recent acquisitions.	Intact	No strategic acquisitions completed within 12 months	1 acquisition completed vs >=1 target News confirms completion of the purchase of two New Hampshire water companies from Aquarion Water Authority on June 30, 2026. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 3 distinct disclosures including 2026-Q1 and 2026-07-07. Unitil completed acquisitions of Bangor Natural Gas and Maine Natural Gas, growing rate base by 17%, and closed the Aquarion Water Companies acquisition with a $47M rate base. These acquisitions are expected to be earnings accretive and support long-term EPS growth of 5% to 7%. The trajectory matches management's stated growth strategy and delivery on expanding regulated utility platform. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
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2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
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2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
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2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
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2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
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2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
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2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
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2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	1	3
2026-06-01	0	3
2026-07-01	0	3
2026-08-01	0	3
2026-09-01	0	3
2026-10-01	0	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain dividend growthDividend per share: $0.47 per share
EPS near guidanceDiluted EPS: $0.26 per share
Increase operating incomeOperating income: $15.4M

Next proof point

Nov 2, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-11.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Unitil Corporation outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

UTL is a regulated utility with a growth profile supported by acquisitions and dividend increases. Its long-term thesis is intact, with recent financial performance in the top half of its industry, but earnings quality is fragile and management execution has been volatile.

What's priced into Unitil Corporation

The evidence describes UTL as expensive overall, despite a valuation measure showing it as cheap versus peers. The expectations gap is close to neutral, and the priced-in assessment is tagged justified, with low fragility rather than a broad stack of concerns already reflected in expectations.

What the fundamentals likely do

Over the multi-year view, recent acquisitions and management’s stated plan to grow the regulated utility platform support expected earnings contribution and long-term EPS growth of 5% to 7%. Operating income has improved, and dividend growth has remained on track; near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful risk, while the sector backdrop is a headwind.

What Unitil Corporation hinges on

The thesis depends on acquisitions adding earnings as expected and management continuing to improve operating income without weakening earnings quality. Near-term signals include guidance on the next call, possible Fed rate cuts, and whether sector peers continue to report strong results and raise guidance.