United Therapeutics (UTHR)

NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-10-23

$587.50+0.46%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge United Therapeutics’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+5.4%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

28.90 → 30.46 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 11 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 11 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	840.4M
EPS	—	7.391
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	3.19B
EPS	—	26.567
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	3.57B
EPS	—	30.456

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Effective capital return via share buybacks	A supporting condition in United Therapeutics's published investment case. The stated target is Buyback program executed as planned.	Intact	Buyback program is suspended or materially reduced	Buyback active vs suspended UTHR authorized $2B buyback (Oct 2026) and executed $477.6M ASR (Sep 2026), confirming active capital return. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain strong operating income	A primary condition in United Therapeutics's published investment case. The stated target is Maintain operating income near $325M.	Broken	Operating income falls below $300M next 4 quarters	Operating income: $330.8M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Maintain operating income near $325M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 2026330,800,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 2c33767d-9a2f-44df-8a7d-da9c756efb78. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Successful new product approvals and launches	The company benefits from new FDA approvals and strong product franchises.	Intact	No major product approvals or launches in FY26	Qualitative: Strong catalyst flow for ralinepag/Tyvaso approvals reported Seeking Alpha notes strong catalyst flow for regulatory approvals; Liquidia litigation settled, reducing legal risk. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Deliver durable double-digit revenue growth	A primary condition in United Therapeutics's published investment case. The stated target is >=11% YoY revenue growth.	Broken	YoY revenue growth falls below 6% in FY26	Revenue growth: -1.92% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=11% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 2026-1.915853 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 2c33767d-9a2f-44df-8a7d-da9c756efb78. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$30.46

$31.49 → $30.46 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$3.57B

$3.68B → $3.57B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$31.49	$3,679,025,400	14 / 14
2026-07-25	$31.51	$3,680,228,530	14 / 14
2026-07-26	$31.51	$3,680,228,530	14 / 14
2026-07-27	$31.51	$3,680,228,530	14 / 14
2026-07-28	$32.84	$3,675,096,610	11 / 11
2026-07-29	$32.84	$3,675,096,610	11 / 11
2026-07-30	$32.84	$3,675,096,610	11 / 11
2026-07-31	$31.51	$3,680,228,530	14 / 14
2026-08-01	$32.84	$3,675,096,610	11 / 11
2026-08-02	$32.84	$3,675,096,610	11 / 11
2026-08-03	$31.51	$3,680,228,530	14 / 14
2026-08-04	$32.84	$3,675,096,610	11 / 11
2026-08-05	$32.84	$3,675,096,610	11 / 11
2026-08-06	$32.84	$3,675,096,610	11 / 11
2026-08-08	$29.43	$3,481,038,640	11 / 11
2026-08-09	$29.28	$3,509,470,880	14 / 14
2026-08-10	$29.43	$3,481,038,640	11 / 11
2026-08-12	$28.94	$3,475,097,850	14 / 14
2026-08-13	$28.94	$3,475,097,850	14 / 14
2026-08-14	$29.43	$3,481,038,640	11 / 11
2026-08-15	$29.43	$3,481,038,640	11 / 11
2026-08-16	$29.43	$3,481,038,640	11 / 11
2026-08-17	$29.43	$3,481,038,640	11 / 11
2026-08-18	$29.43	$3,481,038,640	11 / 11
2026-08-19	$29.43	$3,481,038,640	11 / 11
2026-08-20	$28.90	$3,442,713,835	11 / 10
2026-08-21	$28.90	$3,442,713,835	11 / 10
2026-08-22	$28.90	$3,442,713,835	11 / 10
2026-08-23	$28.90	$3,442,713,835	11 / 10
2026-08-24	$28.90	$3,442,713,835	11 / 10
2026-08-25	$28.90	$3,442,713,835	11 / 10
2026-08-26	$28.90	$3,442,717,004	11 / 10
2026-08-27	$28.90	$3,442,717,004	11 / 10
2026-08-28	$28.90	$3,442,717,004	11 / 10
2026-08-29	$28.90	$3,441,732,388	11 / 10
2026-08-30	$28.90	$3,441,732,388	11 / 10
2026-08-31	$28.90	$3,441,732,388	11 / 10
2026-09-01	$28.90	$3,441,732,388	11 / 10
2026-09-02	$28.90	$3,441,732,388	11 / 10
2026-09-03	$28.90	$3,441,732,388	11 / 10
2026-09-04	$28.90	$3,441,732,388	11 / 10
2026-09-05	$28.90	$3,441,732,388	11 / 10
2026-09-06	$28.90	$3,441,732,388	11 / 10
2026-09-07	$28.90	$3,441,732,388	11 / 10
2026-09-08	$28.90	$3,441,732,388	11 / 10
2026-09-09	$28.90	$3,441,732,388	11 / 10
2026-09-10	$28.90	$3,441,732,388	11 / 10
2026-09-11	$28.90	$3,441,732,388	11 / 10
2026-09-12	$28.90	$3,441,732,388	11 / 10
2026-09-13	$28.90	$3,441,732,388	11 / 10
2026-09-14	$28.90	$3,441,732,388	11 / 10
2026-09-15	$28.90	$3,441,732,388	11 / 10
2026-09-16	$28.90	$3,441,732,388	11 / 10
2026-09-17	$28.90	$3,441,732,388	11 / 10
2026-09-18	$28.90	$3,441,732,388	11 / 10
2026-09-19	$28.90	$3,441,732,388	11 / 10
2026-09-20	$28.90	$3,441,732,388	11 / 10
2026-09-21	$28.90	$3,441,732,388	11 / 10
2026-09-22	$28.90	$3,441,732,388	11 / 10
2026-09-23	$28.90	$3,441,732,388	8 / 10
2026-09-24	$28.90	$3,441,732,388	11 / 10
2026-09-25	$28.78	$3,432,406,146	11 / 10
2026-09-26	$28.78	$3,432,406,146	11 / 10
2026-09-27	$28.78	$3,432,406,146	11 / 11
2026-09-28	$28.78	$3,432,406,146	11 / 11
2026-09-29	$28.78	$3,432,406,146	11 / 11
2026-09-30	$28.78	$3,432,406,146	11 / 11
2026-10-01	$28.78	$3,432,406,146	11 / 11
2026-10-02	$28.98	$3,462,918,632	11 / 10
2026-10-03	$28.98	$3,462,919,718	11 / 11
2026-10-04	$28.98	$3,462,919,718	11 / 11
2026-10-05	$28.98	$3,462,919,718	11 / 11
2026-10-06	$28.98	$3,462,919,718	11 / 11
2026-10-07	$28.98	$3,462,919,718	11 / 11
2026-10-08	$29.28	$3,483,278,372	11 / 11
2026-10-09	$29.28	$3,483,278,372	11 / 11
2026-10-10	$29.28	$3,483,278,372	11 / 11
2026-10-11	$30.29	$3,540,914,086	11 / 11
2026-10-12	$30.29	$3,540,914,086	11 / 11
2026-10-13	$30.29	$3,540,914,086	11 / 11
2026-10-14	$30.29	$3,540,914,086	11 / 11
2026-10-15	$30.48	$3,558,192,658	11 / 10
2026-10-16	$31.11	$3,603,388,301	11 / 10
2026-10-17	$31.11	$3,603,388,301	11 / 10
2026-10-18	$31.11	$3,603,388,301	11 / 10
2026-10-19	$31.11	$3,603,388,301	11 / 10
2026-10-20	$31.69	$3,637,024,015	11 / 10
2026-10-21	$31.71	$3,639,809,729	11 / 11
2026-10-22	$31.71	$3,639,809,729	11 / 11
2026-10-23	$30.46	$3,567,302,586	11 / 11
2026-10-24	$30.46	$3,567,302,586	11 / 11

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	12	4	0
2026-06-01	12	3	0
2026-07-01	12	3	0
2026-08-01	12	3	0
2026-09-01	11	3	1
2026-10-01	11	3	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

1 upgrades0 downgrades4 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 5 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

RBC CapitalOct 22 · prior Oct 8

$708.00 → $697.00-1.6%

Raymond JamesOct 20

$717.00New observation · no comparable prior

UBSOct 19

$725.00New observation · no comparable prior

Goldman SachsOct 15 · prior Sep 24

$321.00 → $368.00+14.6%

JefferiesOct 14

$728.00New observation · no comparable prior

BTIGOct 1

$728.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$400.40$800.80

1 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 4 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain strong operating incomePublished status: Broken
Deliver durable double-digit revenue growthPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

2 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-20.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

United Therapeutics outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a healthcare business with a multi-year thesis that is intact, rather than a turnaround story. Recent financial performance is strong relative to its industry, while management execution and earnings quality are rated neutral and risk is moderate.

What's priced into United Therapeutics

Valuation is rated neutral, with the model showing a small expectations gap and pricing broadly aligned with its evidence-based outlook. The stock carries a modest premium versus peers, while the low fragility assessment suggests the thesis is not especially dependent on unusually favorable assumptions.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, Tyvaso DPI is showing commercial progress: revenue increased from the first quarter to the second quarter of 2026, alongside record starts, referrals, and patient counts. Total revenue remains below the first quarter of 2025, however, and the evidence does not yet show sustained portfolio growth; regulatory submissions for ralinepag and nebulized Tyvaso are progress, but their commercial contribution is not established here.

What United Therapeutics hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on regulatory progress translating into commercial results and on Tyvaso DPI momentum helping restore sustained portfolio growth. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; weakening employment data could also weigh on healthcare names, while continued earnings strength from sector peers would support the sector backdrop.