U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. (USPH)

NYSEHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$88.53-0.23%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	220.97M
EPS	—	0.929
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	847.9M
EPS	—	2.898
EBITDA	$102M–$106Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	912.01M
EPS	—	3.424

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain disciplined capital allocation including dividends	A supporting condition in U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Maintain or increase dividend at >= $0.46 per share quarterly.	Intact	Dividend per share falls below $0.44 per share quarterly	Dividend per share: $0.46 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Maintain or increase dividend at >= $0.46 per share quarterly. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 20260.46 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: ac98f290-1992-4fe2-82dd-63872dadce86. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. The company declared consistent quarterly dividends of $0.46 per share in 2026-Q1 and 2026-Q2. The credit facility was upsized to $450 million with improved pricing in 2025-Q4, supporting disciplined capital allocation. Management is maintaining dividend payments and capital structure consistent with stated priorities. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Hospital partnerships contribute EBITDA	Strategic hospital partnerships aim to add $14 million EBITDA in 2027.	Intact	Hospital partnership EBITDA contribution falls below $10 million in 2027	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Hospital affiliations began phasing in during 2026-Q2 with 31 clinics integrated and 39 more expected in 2026-Q3. These affiliations are expected to contribute at least $14 million EBITDA in 2027. Management is delivering progress with phased clinic transitions and revenue contributions consistent with prior guidance. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Grow revenue through organic expansion and acquisitions	A primary condition in U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=8% YoY revenue growth.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 6% next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $198.3M in 2026-Q1 to $214.1M in 2026-Q2 (+8.0%), with visits per clinic per day rising to 33.5 in 2026-Q2. The company completed multiple acquisitions including a 12-clinic practice generating $12M annual revenue, totaling $38M in purchase price for 2026. Management's statements and financials show delivering on growth through organic expansion and acquisitions. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Implement technology to improve efficiency and revenue capture	A supporting condition in U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Successful rollout of semi-virtual front desk and AI documentation by end 2026.	Intact	Technology initiatives fail to launch or show no efficiency gains by end 2026	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. The company is progressing on technology initiatives including Workday ERP implementation targeting go-live in early 2027, semi-virtual front desk, and AI documentation tools. These initiatives are expected to improve efficiency and productivity, with management reporting ongoing ramp-up consistent with prior statements. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

Unavailable → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.91B

$0.90B → $0.91B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$895,707,523	4 / 6
2026-07-25	$3.41	$895,739,510	6 / 7
2026-07-26	$3.41	$895,739,510	6 / 7
2026-07-27	$3.41	$895,739,510	6 / 7
2026-07-28	$3.41	$895,739,510	6 / 7
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$895,707,523	4 / 6
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$895,707,523	4 / 6
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$895,707,523	4 / 6
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$895,707,523	4 / 6
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$897,431,237	4 / 6
2026-08-03	$3.42	$897,459,800	6 / 7
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$897,431,237	4 / 6
2026-08-05	$3.42	$897,459,800	6 / 7
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$897,431,237	4 / 6
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$898,888,455	4 / 6
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$898,888,455	4 / 6
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$898,888,455	4 / 6
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$898,888,455	4 / 6
2026-08-13	$3.42	$906,484,010	7 / 7
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$898,888,455	4 / 6
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$898,888,455	4 / 6
2026-08-16	$3.40	$898,888,455	5 / 6
2026-08-17	$3.40	$898,888,455	5 / 6
2026-08-18	$3.40	$898,888,455	5 / 6
2026-08-19	$3.40	$898,888,455	5 / 6
2026-08-20	$3.44	$908,455,884	5 / 6
2026-08-21	$3.38	$909,865,198	5 / 6
2026-08-22	$3.38	$909,865,198	5 / 6
2026-08-23	$3.38	$909,865,198	5 / 6
2026-08-24	$3.38	$909,865,198	5 / 6
2026-08-25	$3.38	$909,865,198	5 / 6
2026-08-26	$3.38	$909,865,198	5 / 6
2026-08-27	$3.38	$909,865,198	5 / 6
2026-08-28	$3.38	$909,865,198	5 / 6
2026-08-29	$3.38	$909,865,198	5 / 6
2026-08-30	$3.38	$909,865,198	5 / 6
2026-08-31	$3.38	$909,865,198	5 / 6
2026-09-01	$3.38	$909,865,198	5 / 6
2026-09-02	$3.38	$909,865,198	5 / 6
2026-09-03	$3.38	$909,865,198	5 / 6
2026-09-04	$3.38	$909,865,198	5 / 6
2026-09-05	$3.38	$909,865,198	5 / 6
2026-09-06	$3.38	$909,865,198	5 / 6
2026-09-07	$3.38	$909,865,198	5 / 6
2026-09-08	$3.38	$909,865,198	5 / 6
2026-09-09	$3.38	$909,865,198	5 / 6
2026-09-10	$3.38	$909,865,198	5 / 6
2026-09-11	$3.38	$909,865,198	5 / 6
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$910,598,741	4 / 6
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$910,598,741	4 / 6
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$910,598,741	4 / 6
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$912,005,672	4 / 6
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$912,005,672	4 / 6
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$912,005,672	4 / 6
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$912,005,672	4 / 6
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$912,005,672	4 / 6
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$912,005,672	4 / 6
2026-09-21	Unavailable	$912,005,672	4 / 6
2026-09-22	Unavailable	$912,005,672	4 / 6
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$912,005,672	4 / 6
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$912,005,672	4 / 6
2026-09-25	Unavailable	$912,005,672	4 / 6
2026-09-26	Unavailable	$912,005,672	4 / 6
2026-09-27	Unavailable	$912,005,672	4 / 6
2026-09-28	Unavailable	$912,005,672	4 / 6
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$912,005,672	4 / 6
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$912,005,672	4 / 6
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$912,005,672	4 / 6
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$912,005,672	4 / 6
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$912,005,672	4 / 6
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$912,005,672	4 / 6
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$912,005,672	4 / 6
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$912,005,672	4 / 6
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$912,005,672	4 / 6
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$912,005,672	4 / 6
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$912,005,672	4 / 6
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$912,005,672	4 / 6
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$912,005,672	4 / 6
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$912,005,672	4 / 6
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$912,005,672	4 / 6
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$912,005,672	4 / 6
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$912,005,672	4 / 6
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$912,005,672	4 / 6
2026-10-17	Unavailable	$912,005,672	4 / 6
2026-10-18	Unavailable	$912,005,672	4 / 6
2026-10-19	Unavailable	$912,005,672	4 / 6
2026-10-20	Unavailable	$912,005,672	4 / 6
2026-10-21	Unavailable	$912,005,672	4 / 6
2026-10-22	Unavailable	$912,005,672	4 / 6
2026-10-23	Unavailable	$912,005,672	4 / 6
2026-10-24	Unavailable	$912,005,672	4 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	6	1
2026-06-01	6	1
2026-07-01	6	1
2026-08-01	6	1
2026-09-01	6	1
2026-10-01	6	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain disciplined capital allocation including dividendsDividend per share: $0.46 per share
Hospital partnerships contribute EBITDADirect metric needs a verified mapping
Grow revenue through organic expansion and acquisitionsDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Implement technology to improve efficiency and revenue captureQualitative condition

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-35.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

USPH is a growth-oriented healthcare business, with expansion coming from existing clinics, acquisitions, and hospital partnerships. The long-term thesis is intact, but earnings quality is neutral, management execution has been volatile, and near-term risk is elevated.

What's priced into U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc.

USPH is valued at a substantial premium to peers, and the valuation evidence points to a re-rating as the main driver of that premium. The expectations gap is meaningful, while the evidence does not show a broader stack of weak fundamentals and turbulence being priced in.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term results have been strong: second-quarter revenue rose 8% from the first quarter, and visits per clinic per day increased. Acquisitions and clinic growth are progressing, while hospital partnerships are still phasing in and are expected to contribute at least $14 million of EBITDA in 2027. The main near-term concern is a run of earnings misses, alongside a 46% estimated miss probability and the risk of a guidance cut.

What U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. hinges on

The next call matters: guidance remains reaffirmed as of August 10, but a cut would be a meaningful setback. A weakening jobs trend could also pressure healthcare businesses, while continued strong results and higher guidance from sector bellwethers HCA, THC, and EHC would support the sector backdrop. Over the multi-year view, the thesis depends on clinic growth and acquisitions continuing, and hospital affiliations delivering their expected contribution.