US Foods (USFD)
NYSEConsumer StaplesFood DistributionSnapshot 2026-09-09
$97.45-5.47%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesFood DistributionSnapshot 2026-09-09
Warn: Primary pillar under pressure — Achieve 18% to 24% EPS growth in 2026: FY26 EPS guidance $1.80-$2.40 vs $1.50-$2.00 prior year implies 20.0%-20.0% growth.
US Foods aims for 4% to 6% sales growth in 2026. Profit growth target is 18% to 24% EPS increase. The company has a strong contract win supporting sales. Margins and earnings growth could improve with stable management.
Sales growth is slow and EPS declined in recent quarters. Operating income dropped sharply in Q1 2026. Competition and legal risks may pressure pricing and margins. The company missed recent earnings estimates.
The stock price is about 37% above our valuation level. Analysts expect roughly 6% revenue growth, which is close to management's target. Our view is cautious given recent earnings misses and margin pressure.
Breaks if: EBITDA growth falls below 9% in FY26
Breaks if: EPS growth falls below 18% in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a stable management team. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance and consistent management priorities.
The market appears to have high expectations for USFD, as it is currently valued at a premium compared to peers. The expectations gap indicates that some growth is already factored into the stock's valuation.
Fundamentals are likely to remain strong, as management is on track to achieve its growth targets for net sales, adjusted EPS, and adjusted EBITDA. However, there is a moderate risk of missing expectations due to the company's history in a high-miss-rate industry.
The long-term thesis hinges on maintaining guidance in upcoming calls, inflation trends, and performance from sector peers. Any cuts to guidance could negatively impact sentiment, while favorable inflation or strong results from competitors could support growth.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports this improved outlook. There are no new threats impacting the thesis at this time.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
US Foods targets an 18% to 24% growth in adjusted diluted EPS for fiscal year 2026.
Breaks if: net sales growth falls below 4% in FY26
Continue to grow net sales by 4% to 6% in fiscal year 2026, driven by case volume growth and food cost inflation.
Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Net sales grew from $9.6 billion in 2026-Q1 to $10.5 billion in 2026-Q2 (+9.3% sequentially), with fiscal year 2025 net sales at $39.4 billion, up 4.1% year-over-year. Management has consistently reaffirmed the 4% to 6% net sales growth target for 2026, and the trajectory is delivering.
“The Company is reaffirming its Fiscal Year 2026 guidance provided on February 12, 2026 of: Net Sales growth of 4% to 6%”
“The Company is reaffirming its Fiscal Year 2026 guidance provided on February 12, 2026 of: Net Sales growth of 4% to 6%”
“The Company is providing Fiscal Year 2026 guidance of: Net sales growth of 4% to 6%”
“The Company is reaffirming its Fiscal Year 2026 guidance provided on February 12, 2026 of: Net Sales growth of 4% to 6%”
Overall, USFD's strong fundamentals and management execution are promising, but the high valuation and sector challenges warrant caution. Not investment advice.