US Foods (USFD)

NYSEConsumer StaplesFood DistributionSnapshot 2026-10-23

$100.91-3.02%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge US Foods’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

5.56 → 5.56 EPS · FY ending Dec 27, 2027 · 8 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	10.76B
EPS	—	1.312
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	41.48B
EPS	—	4.776
Revenue growth	4%–6%	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	43.2B
EPS	—	5.556

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Achieve 9% to 13% EBITDA growth in 2026	A supporting condition in US Foods's published investment case. The stated target is 9% to 13% EBITDA growth.	Under Pressure	EBITDA growth falls below 9% in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA increased from $413 million in 2026-Q1 to $604 million in 2026-Q2 (+46%), with a 10.2% year-over-year increase in 2026-Q2. Management has consistently reaffirmed the 9% to 13% adjusted EBITDA growth target for 2026, and the trajectory is delivering. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Achieve 18% to 24% EPS growth in 2026	A primary condition in US Foods's published investment case. The stated target is 18% to 24% EPS growth.	Under Pressure	EPS growth falls below 18% in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve 4% to 6% net sales growth in 2026	A primary condition in US Foods's published investment case. The stated target is 4% to 6% net sales growth.	Under Pressure	net sales growth falls below 4% in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Net sales grew from $9.6 billion in 2026-Q1 to $10.5 billion in 2026-Q2 (+9.3% sequentially), with fiscal year 2025 net sales at $39.4 billion, up 4.1% year-over-year. Management has consistently reaffirmed the 4% to 6% net sales growth target for 2026, and the trajectory is delivering. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-27 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$5.56

$5.52 → $5.56 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$43.20B

$43.10B → $43.20B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$5.52	$43,103,527,043	9 / 11
2026-07-25	$5.52	$43,103,527,043	9 / 11
2026-07-26	$5.51	$43,104,260,454	9 / 11
2026-07-27	$5.51	$43,104,260,454	9 / 11
2026-07-28	$5.51	$43,104,260,454	9 / 11
2026-07-29	$5.51	$43,104,260,454	9 / 11
2026-07-30	$5.51	$43,104,260,454	9 / 11
2026-07-31	$5.51	$43,104,258,857	9 / 11
2026-08-01	$5.51	$43,104,258,857	9 / 11
2026-08-02	$5.51	$43,104,258,857	9 / 11
2026-08-03	$5.51	$43,104,258,857	9 / 11
2026-08-04	$5.51	$43,104,258,857	9 / 11
2026-08-05	$5.51	$43,104,258,857	9 / 11
2026-08-06	$5.51	$43,104,258,857	9 / 11
2026-08-08	$5.51	$43,104,258,857	9 / 11
2026-08-09	$5.51	$43,104,258,857	9 / 11
2026-08-10	$5.51	$43,104,258,857	9 / 11
2026-08-12	$5.51	$43,104,258,857	9 / 11
2026-08-13	$5.51	$43,104,258,857	9 / 11
2026-08-14	$5.51	$43,104,258,857	9 / 11
2026-08-15	$5.51	$43,104,258,857	9 / 11
2026-08-16	$5.51	$43,104,258,857	9 / 11
2026-08-17	$5.51	$43,104,258,857	9 / 11
2026-08-18	$5.51	$43,104,258,857	9 / 12
2026-08-19	$5.51	$43,104,258,857	9 / 12
2026-08-20	$5.56	$43,224,699,344	9 / 12
2026-08-21	$5.56	$43,224,699,344	10 / 12
2026-08-22	$5.56	$43,224,699,344	10 / 12
2026-08-23	$5.56	$43,224,699,344	10 / 12
2026-08-24	$5.56	$43,224,699,344	10 / 12
2026-08-25	$5.56	$43,224,699,344	10 / 12
2026-08-26	$5.56	$43,224,699,344	10 / 12
2026-08-27	$5.56	$43,224,699,344	10 / 12
2026-08-28	$5.56	$43,224,699,344	10 / 12
2026-08-29	$5.56	$43,224,699,344	10 / 12
2026-08-30	$5.56	$43,224,699,344	10 / 12
2026-08-31	$5.56	$43,224,699,344	10 / 12
2026-09-01	$5.56	$43,224,699,344	10 / 12
2026-09-02	$5.56	$43,224,699,344	10 / 12
2026-09-03	$5.56	$43,224,699,344	10 / 12
2026-09-04	$5.56	$43,224,699,344	10 / 12
2026-09-05	$5.56	$43,224,699,344	10 / 12
2026-09-06	$5.56	$43,224,699,344	10 / 12
2026-09-07	$5.56	$43,224,699,344	10 / 12
2026-09-08	$5.56	$43,224,699,344	10 / 12
2026-09-09	$5.56	$43,224,699,344	10 / 12
2026-09-10	$5.56	$43,224,699,344	10 / 12
2026-09-11	$5.56	$43,224,699,344	10 / 12
2026-09-12	$5.56	$43,223,839,884	10 / 12
2026-09-13	$5.56	$43,223,839,884	10 / 12
2026-09-14	$5.56	$43,223,839,884	10 / 12
2026-09-15	$5.56	$43,223,839,884	10 / 12
2026-09-16	$5.56	$43,223,839,884	10 / 12
2026-09-17	$5.56	$43,223,839,884	10 / 12
2026-09-18	$5.56	$43,223,839,884	10 / 12
2026-09-19	$5.56	$43,223,839,884	10 / 12
2026-09-20	$5.56	$43,223,839,884	10 / 12
2026-09-21	$5.56	$43,223,839,884	10 / 12
2026-09-22	$5.56	$43,223,839,884	10 / 12
2026-09-23	$5.56	$43,223,839,884	10 / 12
2026-09-24	$5.56	$43,223,839,884	10 / 12
2026-09-25	$5.56	$43,223,839,884	10 / 12
2026-09-26	$5.56	$43,223,839,884	10 / 12
2026-09-27	$5.57	$43,250,257,018	9 / 11
2026-09-28	$5.57	$43,250,257,018	9 / 11
2026-09-29	$5.57	$43,250,257,018	9 / 11
2026-09-30	$5.57	$43,250,257,018	9 / 11
2026-10-01	$5.57	$43,250,257,018	9 / 11
2026-10-02	$5.57	$43,250,257,018	9 / 11
2026-10-03	$5.57	$43,250,257,018	9 / 11
2026-10-04	$5.57	$43,250,257,018	9 / 11
2026-10-05	$5.57	$43,250,257,018	9 / 11
2026-10-06	$5.57	$43,250,257,018	9 / 11
2026-10-07	$5.57	$43,250,257,018	9 / 11
2026-10-08	$5.57	$43,250,257,018	9 / 11
2026-10-09	$5.57	$43,250,257,018	9 / 11
2026-10-10	$5.57	$43,250,257,018	9 / 11
2026-10-11	$5.57	$43,250,257,018	9 / 11
2026-10-12	$5.57	$43,250,257,018	9 / 11
2026-10-13	$5.57	$43,250,257,018	9 / 11
2026-10-14	$5.57	$43,250,257,018	9 / 11
2026-10-15	$5.57	$43,250,257,018	9 / 11
2026-10-16	$5.57	$43,229,548,514	9 / 11
2026-10-17	$5.57	$43,229,548,514	9 / 11
2026-10-18	$5.57	$43,229,548,514	9 / 11
2026-10-19	$5.57	$43,229,548,514	9 / 11
2026-10-20	$5.57	$43,229,548,514	9 / 11
2026-10-21	$5.57	$43,227,905,657	9 / 11
2026-10-22	$5.56	$43,207,455,253	9 / 11
2026-10-23	$5.56	$43,202,669,539	8 / 10
2026-10-24	$5.56	$43,202,669,539	8 / 10

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	12	3	0
2026-06-01	12	3	1
2026-07-01	13	3	1
2026-08-01	12	3	1
2026-09-01	12	3	1
2026-10-01	12	2	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 12 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Morgan StanleyOct 15 · prior Aug 7

$107.00 → $111.00+3.7%

$0$61.05$122.10

1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Achieve 9% to 13% EBITDA growth in 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Achieve 18% to 24% EPS growth in 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Achieve 4% to 6% net sales growth in 2026Published status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-21.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

US Foods outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a steady-growth food distributor with a cyclical risk: economic weakness could pressure demand. The long-term thesis is intact, and the recent signal has shifted from mixed to mildly favorable, though management evidence is neutral and confidence is medium.

What's priced into US Foods

The valuation is expensive versus peers, at a 1.47 premium, and the expectations gap is modest at 0.04. The evidence labels the current pricing as justified with low fragility, but that still leaves the thesis reliant on continued execution rather than a large gap between expectations and results.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, recent financial performance is strong: second-quarter adjusted diluted EPS growth was 21%, and adjusted EBITDA rose 10.2% year over year. Management has reaffirmed its 2026 sales, adjusted EPS, and adjusted EBITDA growth goals, and each is described as on track; however, the snapshot also notes a high-miss-rate industry and recent misses.

What US Foods hinges on

The key near-term risk is a guidance cut after management reaffirmed its outlook on August 6. A weakening jobs trend could also raise recession concerns and weigh on cyclical businesses. Continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers would support the favorable case, while the recent buyback announcement and new financial obligation are additional capital-allocation developments to monitor.