Upland Software Inc (UPLD)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-09
$3.37-3.71%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Revenue stabilizes near $197M in 2026: FY26 rev guide $193.1M vs $197M target; trip <$192.5M.
Upland Software aims to stabilize revenue near $197 million in 2026. Profit improves with adjusted EBITDA guided around $56 million. The company has a low valuation with a P/E of 5.8 versus peers at 38. Recent earnings beats show some operational progress.
Revenue has declined from $63.7 million in early 2025 to $48.7 million in early 2026. The company faces high risk and fragile quality. Management changes and Nasdaq delisting risks add uncertainty. Analysts expect slight revenue decline next year.
The market prices in about -1% revenue growth and a 30% decline in earnings over 3 years. The stock trades at a large discount to peers, reflecting skepticism on turnaround success. Our fair value is $13.7, near consensus estimates.
Breaks if: adjusted EBITDA falls below $51.7M in FY26
Deliver full-year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA between $49.8M and $56.3M, with margin around 27%, reflecting slight decline from 2025.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a speculative growth opportunity. The current thesis state is weakened, reflecting challenges in execution and recent earnings misses.
The market appears to price in a low level of fragility, suggesting that while UPLD is considered cheap compared to peers, there is an expectation gap indicating that investors may be cautious about its future performance.
Fundamentals are likely to remain mixed in the near term, with management focused on revenue and EBITDA guidance amid ongoing revenue declines. The company has shown limited progress in its financial performance, which could continue to impact investor sentiment.
The thesis hinges on several factors, including potential guidance cuts, macroeconomic conditions like interest rate changes, and the performance of sector leaders that could influence UPLD's momentum.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry. This change indicates that the reason to own UPLD has weakened. The company reaffirmed its quarterly revenue guidance, which is a positive sign. However, the overall standing has deteriorated, impacting the thesis negatively.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Full year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance narrowed from $52.6-$58.6 million at 2025-Q4 to $49.8-$56.3 million at 2026-Q2, with margin steady at 27%. Adjusted EBITDA was $12.7 million in 2026-Q1 and $12.8 million in 2026-Q2, showing limited progress but consistent delivery near guidance.
“Full year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between $49.8 and $52.8 million, a decline of 12% from 2025.”
“Full year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between $51.7 and $56.3 million, a decline of 7% from 2025.”
“Full year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between $52.6 and $58.6 million.”
Breaks if: Additional key executive departures occur within next 4 quarters
Breaks if: annual revenue falls below $192.5M in FY26
Maintain full-year 2026 total revenue guidance between $190.1M and $201.5M, reflecting impact of 2025 divestitures.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Full year 2026 revenue guidance narrowed from $194.2-$206.2 million at 2025-Q4 to $190.1-$196.1 million at 2026-Q2, reflecting divestitures completed in 2025. Revenue declined from $63.7 million in 2025-Q1 to $49.1 million in 2026-Q2. The trajectory shows management maintaining guidance amid ongoing revenue declines primarily due to divestitures.
“For the full year ending December 31, 2026, Upland expects reported total revenue to be between $190.1 and $196.1 million, primarily due to divestitures completed in 2025.”
“For the full year ending December 31, 2026, Upland expects reported total revenue to be between $192.5 and $201.5 million, primarily due to divestitures completed in 2025.”
“For the full year ending December 31, 2026, Upland expects reported total revenue to be between $194.2 and $206.2 million.”
Over the next 1 to 3 years, UPLD faces significant challenges that could impact its recovery and growth. Not investment advice.