United Microelectronics Corp. (UMC)

NYSEInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$18.89+1.94%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge United Microelectronics Corp.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	77.14B
EPS	—	7.104
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	279.79B
EPS	—	37.126
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	352.14B
EPS	—	36.632

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
earnings per share growth	A primary condition in United Microelectronics Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= $0.69 in FY26 and EPS >= $0.82 in FY27.	Intact	EPS falls below $0.60 in FY26	Diluted EPS: TWD 16.85 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $0.69 in FY26 and EPS >= $0.82 in FY27. Target and observation currencies differ. Source published Jul 29, 202616.85 TWD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
strategic partnerships and technology collaboration	The company has new deals and partnerships, including collaboration with Intel on 12-nm process nodes.	Intact	loss or failure of Intel collaboration or major partnership	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
total company revenue growth	A primary condition in United Microelectronics Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $273 billion total revenue in FY26.	Intact	total revenue falls below $250 billion in FY26	Revenue: TWD 68.733B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $273 billion total revenue in FY26. Target and observation currencies differ. Source published Jul 29, 202668,732,662,000 TWD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue$352.14B

$326.93B → $352.14B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$326,927,774,120	3 / 22
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$326,927,774,120	3 / 22
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$335,456,319,968	2 / 11
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$335,456,319,968	2 / 11
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$326,927,774,120	3 / 22
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$331,989,160,080	3 / 22
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$346,461,003,337	2 / 11
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$341,770,799,110	1 / 23
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$343,410,915,305	1 / 12
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$341,381,724,030	2 / 23
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$344,234,460,013	1 / 12
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$341,381,724,030	2 / 23
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$344,234,460,013	1 / 12
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$344,234,460,013	1 / 12
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$343,085,334,219	2 / 12
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$343,253,277,190	2 / 24
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$343,253,277,190	2 / 24
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$343,085,334,219	2 / 12
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$343,085,334,219	2 / 12
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$343,085,334,219	2 / 12
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$343,085,334,219	2 / 12
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$343,085,334,219	2 / 12
2026-08-17	Unavailable	$343,085,334,219	2 / 12
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$343,085,334,219	2 / 12
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$343,085,334,219	2 / 12
2026-08-20	Unavailable	$347,887,586,616	2 / 12
2026-08-21	Unavailable	$347,887,586,616	2 / 12
2026-08-22	Unavailable	$347,887,586,616	2 / 12
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$347,887,586,616	2 / 12
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$347,887,586,616	2 / 12
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$347,887,586,616	2 / 12
2026-08-26	Unavailable	$348,729,802,382	2 / 12
2026-08-27	Unavailable	$348,729,802,382	2 / 12
2026-08-28	Unavailable	$348,729,802,382	2 / 12
2026-08-29	Unavailable	$348,729,802,382	2 / 11
2026-08-30	Unavailable	$348,729,802,382	2 / 11
2026-08-31	Unavailable	$348,729,802,382	2 / 11
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$348,729,802,382	2 / 11
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$348,729,802,382	2 / 11
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$348,729,802,382	2 / 11
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$348,729,802,382	2 / 11
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$349,049,008,497	2 / 11
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$349,049,008,497	2 / 11
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$349,049,008,497	2 / 11
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$349,374,253,201	2 / 11
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$350,492,879,078	2 / 11
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$350,492,879,078	2 / 11
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$350,492,879,078	2 / 11
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$350,492,879,078	2 / 11
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$350,492,879,078	2 / 11
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$350,492,879,078	2 / 11
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$350,492,879,078	2 / 11
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$350,492,879,078	2 / 11
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$350,492,879,078	2 / 11
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$350,492,879,078	2 / 11
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$350,492,879,078	2 / 11
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$350,492,879,078	2 / 11
2026-09-21	Unavailable	$346,700,517,711	2 / 11
2026-09-22	Unavailable	$346,214,177,420	2 / 11
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$346,833,487,154	2 / 11
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$346,833,487,154	2 / 11
2026-09-25	Unavailable	$346,921,283,416	2 / 11
2026-09-26	Unavailable	$346,831,665,655	2 / 11
2026-09-27	Unavailable	$346,758,805,686	2 / 11
2026-09-28	Unavailable	$347,148,606,518	2 / 11
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$347,613,088,818	2 / 11
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$347,613,088,818	2 / 11
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$348,282,489,780	2 / 11
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$348,005,439,749	2 / 11
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$347,959,537,969	2 / 11
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$347,882,670,702	2 / 11
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$347,671,829,182	2 / 10
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$346,315,842,284	2 / 10
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$348,278,812,803	2 / 10
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$348,735,193,834	2 / 11
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$349,522,545,016	2 / 11
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$349,522,545,016	2 / 11
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$351,193,747,213	2 / 11
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$351,288,282,186	2 / 11
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$351,245,244,864	2 / 11
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$351,081,555,902	2 / 11
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$351,992,072,430	2 / 11
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$351,781,610,481	2 / 11
2026-10-17	Unavailable	$351,781,610,481	2 / 11
2026-10-18	Unavailable	$351,781,610,481	2 / 11
2026-10-19	Unavailable	$351,781,610,481	2 / 11
2026-10-20	Unavailable	$352,218,501,603	2 / 11
2026-10-21	Unavailable	$352,138,337,678	2 / 11
2026-10-22	Unavailable	$352,138,337,678	2 / 11
2026-10-23	Unavailable	$352,138,337,678	2 / 11
2026-10-24	Unavailable	$352,138,337,678	2 / 11

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	0	2	4
2026-06-01	0	1	4
2026-07-01	0	1	4
2026-08-01	0	1	3
2026-09-01	0	1	3
2026-10-01	1	1	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 3 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

earnings per share growthDiluted EPS: TWD 16.85 per share
strategic partnerships and technology collaborationQualitative condition
total company revenue growthRevenue: TWD 68.733B

Next proof point

Oct 28, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.5%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-38.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

United Microelectronics Corp. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

The evidence does not support a clear label such as a durable compounder or a turnaround. The current long-term thesis is insufficiently established, and confidence is low.

What's priced into United Microelectronics Corp.

The snapshot provides no valuation or expectations evidence, so whether UMC appears cheap, fair, or expensive versus peers cannot be assessed. The expectations gap is also unclear.

What the fundamentals likely do

There is not enough recent financial-performance history here to judge the multi-year fundamental trajectory. Near term, the stated earnings-miss risk is low, but recent earnings surprises are described as erratic and trending down.

What United Microelectronics Corp. hinges on

A favorable scenario is that the Fed begins cutting rates and sector bellwethers such as NVDA, TSM, and AVGO continue to report strong results and guide higher. A negative scenario is that those companies miss or guide lower, weakening the sector backdrop for UMC.