Universal Health Services (UHS)

NYSEHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-10-15

$185.10-1.21%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Universal Health Services’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

23.96 → 23.93 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 12 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 12 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Keep capital spending between $950M and $1.1B in 2026	The company manages capital spending near $1 billion.	Under Pressure	capex exceeds $1.1B in FY26	Capital expenditures: $227.633M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $950M-$1.1B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 2026227,633,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain EPS near $23.4 per share in fiscal 2026	EPS stays strong near $23.4 per share.	Under Pressure	EPS falls below $21.5 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $5.98 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $23.4. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 20265.98 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: f37f5b38-ac66-4dc6-a8b0-83cbee0f8e29. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain stable management amid legal and leadership risks	A supporting condition in Universal Health Services's published investment case. The stated target is no major legal or leadership disruptions.	Intact	major legal rulings or executive departures hurt management	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Grow revenue to about $18.6 billion in fiscal 2026	UHS grows revenue about 6% a year to $18.6 billion in 2026.	Under Pressure	revenue falls below $17.3B in FY26	Revenue: $4.638B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$18.6B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 20264,638,012,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: f37f5b38-ac66-4dc6-a8b0-83cbee0f8e29. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$23.93

$25.28 → $23.93 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$19.48B

$19.39B → $19.48B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$25.28	$19,391,814,965	11 / 14
2026-07-25	$25.16	$19,398,038,920	13 / 17
2026-07-26	$25.16	$19,398,038,920	13 / 17
2026-07-27	$25.16	$19,398,038,920	13 / 17
2026-07-28	$25.16	$19,398,038,920	13 / 17
2026-07-29	$24.74	$19,483,080,262	11 / 14
2026-07-30	$25.14	$19,436,882,340	13 / 17
2026-07-31	$24.44	$19,515,502,942	11 / 14
2026-08-01	$24.44	$19,515,502,942	11 / 14
2026-08-02	$24.19	$19,501,877,420	14 / 17
2026-08-03	$24.19	$19,521,659,609	11 / 14
2026-08-04	$24.19	$19,521,659,609	11 / 14
2026-08-05	$24.13	$19,506,603,890	14 / 17
2026-08-06	$24.13	$19,506,603,890	14 / 17
2026-08-08	$24.13	$19,506,603,890	14 / 17
2026-08-09	$24.13	$19,506,603,890	14 / 17
2026-08-10	$24.19	$19,521,659,609	11 / 14
2026-08-12	$24.19	$19,521,659,609	11 / 14
2026-08-13	$24.13	$19,506,603,890	14 / 17
2026-08-14	$24.19	$19,521,659,609	11 / 14
2026-08-15	$24.19	$19,521,659,609	11 / 14
2026-08-16	$24.19	$19,521,659,609	11 / 14
2026-08-17	$24.19	$19,521,659,609	11 / 14
2026-08-18	$24.19	$19,521,659,609	11 / 14
2026-08-19	$24.19	$19,521,659,609	11 / 14
2026-08-20	$24.17	$19,524,129,029	11 / 14
2026-08-21	$24.09	$19,524,129,029	11 / 14
2026-08-22	$24.09	$19,524,129,029	11 / 14
2026-08-23	$24.09	$19,524,129,029	12 / 14
2026-08-24	$24.09	$19,524,129,029	12 / 14
2026-08-25	$24.09	$19,524,129,029	12 / 14
2026-08-26	$24.09	$19,524,129,029	12 / 14
2026-08-27	$24.09	$19,524,129,029	12 / 14
2026-08-28	$24.09	$19,524,129,029	12 / 14
2026-08-29	$24.06	$19,508,209,674	12 / 14
2026-08-30	$24.06	$19,486,579,001	12 / 14
2026-08-31	$24.06	$19,486,579,001	12 / 14
2026-09-01	$24.06	$19,486,579,001	12 / 14
2026-09-02	$24.06	$19,486,579,001	12 / 14
2026-09-03	$24.06	$19,486,579,001	12 / 14
2026-09-04	$24.04	$19,486,355,313	12 / 14
2026-09-05	$24.04	$19,486,355,313	12 / 14
2026-09-06	$24.04	$19,486,355,313	12 / 14
2026-09-07	$24.04	$19,486,355,313	12 / 14
2026-09-08	$24.04	$19,486,355,313	12 / 14
2026-09-09	$24.04	$19,486,355,313	12 / 14
2026-09-10	$24.04	$19,486,355,313	12 / 14
2026-09-11	$24.04	$19,486,355,313	12 / 14
2026-09-12	$24.04	$19,486,355,313	12 / 14
2026-09-13	$24.04	$19,486,355,313	12 / 14
2026-09-14	$24.04	$19,486,355,313	12 / 14
2026-09-15	$23.96	$19,486,355,313	12 / 14
2026-09-16	$23.96	$19,486,355,313	12 / 14
2026-09-17	$23.96	$19,486,355,313	12 / 14
2026-09-18	$23.96	$19,486,355,313	12 / 14
2026-09-19	$23.96	$19,486,355,313	12 / 14
2026-09-20	$24.02	$19,484,824,063	12 / 14
2026-09-21	$24.02	$19,484,824,063	12 / 14
2026-09-22	$24.02	$19,484,824,063	12 / 14
2026-09-23	$24.02	$19,484,824,063	12 / 14
2026-09-24	$24.02	$19,484,824,063	12 / 14
2026-09-25	$24.02	$19,484,824,063	12 / 14
2026-09-26	$24.02	$19,484,824,063	12 / 14
2026-09-27	$24.02	$19,484,824,063	12 / 14
2026-09-28	$24.02	$19,484,824,063	12 / 14
2026-09-29	$24.02	$19,484,824,063	12 / 14
2026-09-30	$24.02	$19,484,824,063	12 / 14
2026-10-01	$24.02	$19,484,824,063	12 / 14
2026-10-02	$24.02	$19,484,824,063	12 / 14
2026-10-03	$24.02	$19,484,824,063	12 / 14
2026-10-04	$24.02	$19,484,824,063	12 / 14
2026-10-05	$24.02	$19,484,824,063	12 / 14
2026-10-06	$24.02	$19,484,824,063	12 / 14
2026-10-07	$23.99	$19,482,817,313	12 / 14
2026-10-08	$23.99	$19,482,817,313	12 / 14
2026-10-09	$23.99	$19,482,817,313	12 / 14
2026-10-10	$23.99	$19,482,817,313	12 / 14
2026-10-11	$23.99	$19,482,817,313	12 / 14
2026-10-12	$23.99	$19,482,817,313	12 / 14
2026-10-13	$23.93	$19,482,824,882	12 / 14
2026-10-14	$23.93	$19,482,824,882	12 / 14
2026-10-15	$23.93	$19,482,824,882	12 / 14

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	8	11	1
2026-06-01	8	11	1
2026-07-01	8	12	1
2026-08-01	7	12	1
2026-09-01	7	12	1
2026-10-01	7	12	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 12 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Keep capital spending between $950M and $1.1B in 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Maintain EPS near $23.4 per share in fiscal 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Maintain stable management amid legal and leadership risksQualitative condition
Grow revenue to about $18.6 billion in fiscal 2026Published status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Oct 26, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-42.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Universal Health Services outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on consistent revenue and earnings growth. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance, although management execution has shown volatility.

What's priced into Universal Health Services

The market currently prices UHS as cheap compared to its peers, reflecting a valuation that suggests lower expectations. The expectations gap indicates that the market anticipates some challenges ahead, but not severe fragility.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to continue showing strong revenue and earnings growth, as management has consistently prioritized these areas. However, there is a near-term risk of missing expectations, given the company's recent history of misses.

What Universal Health Services hinges on

The thesis hinges on UHS's ability to raise guidance in the upcoming quarter and the performance of sector peers. Additionally, broader economic indicators, such as job growth, will play a crucial role in shaping the outlook.