UDR, Inc. (UDR)

NYSEReal EstateReit - ResidentialSnapshot 2026-10-15

$34.26+0.15%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge UDR, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.7%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

0.58 → 0.58 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain or slightly increase dividend per share	It keeps raising dividends, now about $0.435 per share.	Intact	Dividend per share falls below $0.43 in 2026-Q1	Dividend per share: $0.43 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Dividend per share at least $0.43 in 2026-Q1. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Jul 28, 20260.435 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: e7f21e3e-1507-487b-a081-6cf382f2ea5b. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
EPS near $0.96 in 2026	UDR grows earnings with EPS expected near $0.96 in 2026.	Intact	EPS falls below $0.91 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $0.21 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS between $0.91 and $1.01. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 28, 20260.21 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: e7f21e3e-1507-487b-a081-6cf382f2ea5b. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Repurchase up to 25 million shares	The company is buying back up to 25 million shares, boosting shareholder returns.	Intact	Buyback program is canceled or significantly reduced	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$0.58

$0.53 → $0.58 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$1.75B

$1.76B → $1.75B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$0.53	$1,757,154,218	6 / 9
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$1,750,011,370	1 / 12
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$1,750,011,370	1 / 12
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$1,750,011,370	1 / 12
2026-07-28	$0.53	$1,754,478,142	6 / 9
2026-07-29	$0.53	$1,757,672,260	6 / 10
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$1,750,545,800	1 / 13
2026-07-31	$0.53	$1,757,672,260	6 / 10
2026-08-01	$0.53	$1,757,672,260	6 / 10
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$1,756,559,340	1 / 13
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$1,756,559,340	1 / 13
2026-08-04	$0.53	$1,758,544,467	6 / 10
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$1,756,089,800	1 / 13
2026-08-06	$0.53	$1,758,544,467	6 / 10
2026-08-08	$0.53	$1,758,544,467	6 / 10
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$1,756,089,800	1 / 13
2026-08-10	$0.53	$1,758,544,467	6 / 10
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$1,756,017,370	1 / 12
2026-08-13	$0.53	$1,758,544,467	6 / 10
2026-08-14	$0.53	$1,758,544,467	6 / 10
2026-08-15	$0.53	$1,758,544,467	6 / 10
2026-08-16	$0.53	$1,758,544,467	6 / 10
2026-08-17	$0.53	$1,758,544,467	6 / 10
2026-08-18	$0.53	$1,758,544,467	6 / 10
2026-08-19	$0.53	$1,758,544,467	6 / 10
2026-08-20	$0.59	$1,753,312,070	6 / 10
2026-08-21	$0.59	$1,753,312,070	6 / 10
2026-08-22	$0.59	$1,753,312,070	6 / 10
2026-08-23	$0.59	$1,753,312,070	6 / 10
2026-08-24	$0.59	$1,753,312,070	6 / 10
2026-08-25	$0.59	$1,753,312,070	6 / 10
2026-08-26	$0.59	$1,753,312,070	6 / 9
2026-08-27	$0.59	$1,753,312,070	6 / 9
2026-08-28	$0.59	$1,753,312,070	6 / 9
2026-08-29	$0.59	$1,753,312,070	6 / 9
2026-08-30	$0.59	$1,753,312,070	6 / 9
2026-08-31	$0.59	$1,753,312,070	6 / 9
2026-09-01	$0.59	$1,753,312,070	6 / 9
2026-09-02	$0.59	$1,753,312,070	6 / 9
2026-09-03	$0.58	$1,753,243,010	6 / 9
2026-09-04	$0.58	$1,753,243,010	6 / 9
2026-09-05	$0.58	$1,753,243,010	6 / 9
2026-09-06	$0.58	$1,753,243,010	6 / 9
2026-09-07	$0.58	$1,753,243,010	6 / 9
2026-09-08	$0.58	$1,753,243,010	6 / 9
2026-09-09	$0.58	$1,752,927,892	6 / 8
2026-09-10	$0.58	$1,752,927,892	6 / 8
2026-09-11	$0.58	$1,752,927,892	6 / 8
2026-09-12	$0.58	$1,752,843,602	6 / 8
2026-09-13	$0.58	$1,752,843,602	6 / 8
2026-09-14	$0.58	$1,752,843,602	6 / 8
2026-09-15	$0.58	$1,750,794,889	6 / 8
2026-09-16	$0.58	$1,750,593,495	6 / 8
2026-09-17	$0.58	$1,750,593,495	6 / 8
2026-09-18	$0.58	$1,750,593,495	6 / 8
2026-09-19	$0.58	$1,750,593,495	6 / 8
2026-09-20	$0.58	$1,750,593,496	6 / 8
2026-09-21	$0.58	$1,750,593,496	6 / 8
2026-09-22	$0.58	$1,749,405,996	6 / 8
2026-09-23	$0.58	$1,749,405,996	6 / 8
2026-09-24	$0.58	$1,749,405,996	6 / 8
2026-09-25	$0.58	$1,749,405,996	6 / 8
2026-09-26	$0.58	$1,749,405,996	6 / 8
2026-09-27	$0.58	$1,749,405,996	6 / 8
2026-09-28	$0.58	$1,749,405,996	6 / 8
2026-09-29	$0.58	$1,749,405,996	6 / 8
2026-09-30	$0.58	$1,749,405,996	6 / 8
2026-10-01	$0.58	$1,749,405,996	6 / 8
2026-10-02	$0.58	$1,749,405,996	6 / 8
2026-10-03	$0.58	$1,749,405,996	6 / 8
2026-10-04	$0.58	$1,749,405,996	6 / 8
2026-10-05	$0.58	$1,748,786,404	6 / 8
2026-10-06	$0.58	$1,748,786,404	6 / 8
2026-10-07	$0.58	$1,748,786,404	6 / 8
2026-10-08	$0.58	$1,748,786,404	6 / 8
2026-10-09	$0.58	$1,748,786,404	6 / 8
2026-10-10	$0.58	$1,748,786,404	6 / 8
2026-10-11	$0.58	$1,748,786,404	6 / 8
2026-10-12	$0.58	$1,748,786,404	6 / 8
2026-10-13	$0.58	$1,748,786,404	6 / 9
2026-10-14	$0.58	$1,748,962,875	6 / 9
2026-10-15	$0.58	$1,748,962,875	5 / 9

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	8	12	2
2026-06-01	8	12	2
2026-07-01	9	13	2
2026-08-01	9	11	2
2026-09-01	9	11	2
2026-10-01	9	11	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 11 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades6 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 6 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

UBSOct 14 · prior Sep 15

$41.00 → $39.00-4.9%

Piper SandlerOct 12

$36.00New observation · no comparable prior

Evercore ISISep 21

$41.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$22.55$45.10

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain or slightly increase dividend per shareDividend per share: $0.43 per share
EPS near $0.96 in 2026Diluted EPS: $0.21 per share
Repurchase up to 25 million sharesDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-19.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

UDR, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

UDR represents a stable investment in the real estate sector, focusing on consistent dividend growth and operational performance. The current thesis state is intact, despite recent momentum falling significantly.

What's priced into UDR, Inc.

The market currently prices UDR as relatively cheap compared to its peers, with an expectations gap indicating that investors may not fully appreciate its potential. There is a low confidence in the valuation model, suggesting some uncertainty in future performance.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management has shown strong execution in maintaining and growing dividends, as well as driving same-store revenue and net operating income (NOI) growth. There is a low probability of missing earnings expectations, although the company operates in a high-miss-rate industry.

What UDR, Inc. hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on UDR's ability to raise guidance in the next quarter, potential interest rate cuts by the Fed, and performance from sector leaders that could influence UDR's momentum. These factors could shift market sentiment positively.