Tyler Technologies (TYL)

NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-10-15

$360.87-0.76%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Tyler Technologies’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

15.37 → 15.38 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 14 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 14 to 14; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Free cash flow margin near 27%	Free cash flow stays strong near 27%.	Intact	Free cash flow margin falls below 23% in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Recurring revenue grows double digits	A primary condition in Tyler Technologies's published investment case. The stated target is >=10% YoY growth.	Intact	Recurring revenue growth falls below 7% YoY next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 8 of last 8 quarters. Recurring revenues increased from $463.9 million in 2024-Q4 to $559.5 million in 2026-Q2, comprising a stable and growing portion of total revenues (86.7% in 2026-Q2). Management consistently emphasizes recurring revenue growth, and the financials show steady delivery. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
SaaS revenue grows 12% or more	Tyler grows SaaS revenue over 20% a year.	Under Pressure	SaaS revenue growth falls below 12% YoY next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 8 of last 8 quarters. SaaS revenues grew consistently above 20% each quarter, reaching $230.6 million in 2026-Q2 and ARR grew from $1.86 billion in 2024-Q4 to $2.24 billion in 2026-Q2. Management has consistently emphasized SaaS growth and the trajectory is delivering strong sustained growth. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Repurchase 2.5% of shares in 2026	It repurchases 2.5% of shares in 2026.	Intact	Share repurchases fall below 1.5% of shares in 2026	Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Share repurchases from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 7 of last 7 quarters. Management expanded the share repurchase authorization to $1.5 billion in 2026-Q2 and repurchased approximately 2.1 million shares year-to-date. The program is ongoing with strong execution, reflecting disciplined capital allocation and confidence in the business. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$15.38

$14.83 → $15.38 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$2.81B

$2.81B → $2.81B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$14.83	$2,807,395,270	22 / 21
2026-07-25	$14.83	$2,807,654,570	23 / 22
2026-07-26	$14.90	$2,807,393,237	13 / 17
2026-07-27	$14.83	$2,807,654,570	23 / 22
2026-07-28	$14.83	$2,807,654,570	23 / 22
2026-07-29	$14.90	$2,807,392,000	14 / 18
2026-07-30	$14.83	$2,807,654,570	23 / 22
2026-07-31	$15.15	$2,810,806,830	22 / 20
2026-08-01	$15.23	$2,809,028,608	14 / 17
2026-08-02	$15.35	$2,807,967,650	22 / 21
2026-08-03	$15.35	$2,807,967,650	22 / 21
2026-08-04	$15.37	$2,757,752,713	14 / 17
2026-08-05	$15.35	$2,807,769,120	23 / 22
2026-08-06	$15.37	$2,757,752,713	14 / 17
2026-08-08	$15.37	$2,757,752,713	14 / 17
2026-08-09	$15.37	$2,757,752,713	14 / 17
2026-08-10	$15.37	$2,757,752,713	14 / 17
2026-08-12	$15.37	$2,757,752,713	14 / 17
2026-08-13	$15.37	$2,757,752,713	14 / 17
2026-08-14	$15.37	$2,757,752,713	14 / 17
2026-08-15	$15.37	$2,757,752,713	14 / 17
2026-08-16	$15.37	$2,757,752,713	14 / 17
2026-08-17	$15.37	$2,757,752,713	14 / 17
2026-08-18	$15.37	$2,757,752,713	14 / 17
2026-08-19	$15.37	$2,757,752,713	14 / 17
2026-08-20	$15.37	$2,757,752,713	14 / 18
2026-08-21	$15.37	$2,757,752,713	14 / 18
2026-08-22	$15.37	$2,806,886,292	14 / 18
2026-08-23	$15.37	$2,806,886,292	14 / 18
2026-08-24	$15.37	$2,806,886,292	14 / 18
2026-08-25	$15.37	$2,806,886,292	14 / 18
2026-08-26	$15.37	$2,806,886,292	14 / 18
2026-08-27	$15.37	$2,806,886,292	14 / 18
2026-08-28	$15.37	$2,806,886,292	14 / 18
2026-08-29	$15.37	$2,806,886,292	14 / 18
2026-08-30	$15.37	$2,806,886,292	14 / 18
2026-08-31	$15.37	$2,806,886,292	14 / 18
2026-09-01	$15.37	$2,806,886,292	14 / 18
2026-09-02	$15.37	$2,806,886,292	14 / 18
2026-09-03	$15.37	$2,806,886,292	14 / 18
2026-09-04	$15.37	$2,806,886,292	14 / 18
2026-09-05	$15.37	$2,806,886,292	14 / 18
2026-09-06	$15.37	$2,806,886,292	14 / 18
2026-09-07	$15.37	$2,806,886,292	14 / 18
2026-09-08	$15.37	$2,806,886,292	14 / 18
2026-09-09	$15.37	$2,806,886,292	14 / 18
2026-09-10	$15.37	$2,806,886,292	14 / 18
2026-09-11	$15.37	$2,806,886,292	14 / 18
2026-09-12	$15.37	$2,806,886,292	14 / 18
2026-09-13	$15.37	$2,806,886,292	14 / 18
2026-09-14	$15.37	$2,806,886,292	14 / 18
2026-09-15	$15.37	$2,806,886,292	14 / 18
2026-09-16	$15.37	$2,806,886,292	14 / 18
2026-09-17	$15.37	$2,806,674,420	14 / 18
2026-09-18	$15.37	$2,806,674,420	14 / 18
2026-09-19	$15.37	$2,806,674,420	14 / 18
2026-09-20	$15.37	$2,806,674,420	14 / 18
2026-09-21	$15.37	$2,806,674,420	14 / 18
2026-09-22	$15.37	$2,806,674,420	14 / 18
2026-09-23	$15.37	$2,806,674,420	14 / 18
2026-09-24	$15.37	$2,806,674,420	14 / 18
2026-09-25	$15.37	$2,806,673,864	14 / 18
2026-09-26	$15.37	$2,806,673,864	14 / 18
2026-09-27	$15.37	$2,806,673,864	14 / 18
2026-09-28	$15.37	$2,806,673,864	14 / 18
2026-09-29	$15.37	$2,806,673,864	14 / 18
2026-09-30	$15.37	$2,806,673,864	14 / 18
2026-10-01	$15.37	$2,806,673,864	14 / 17
2026-10-02	$15.37	$2,808,989,420	14 / 18
2026-10-03	$15.37	$2,808,989,420	14 / 18
2026-10-04	$15.37	$2,808,989,420	14 / 18
2026-10-05	$15.37	$2,808,989,420	14 / 18
2026-10-06	$15.37	$2,808,989,420	14 / 18
2026-10-07	$15.37	$2,808,989,420	14 / 18
2026-10-08	$15.37	$2,808,989,420	14 / 18
2026-10-09	$15.34	$2,807,095,864	14 / 18
2026-10-10	$15.34	$2,807,095,864	14 / 18
2026-10-11	$15.34	$2,807,095,864	14 / 18
2026-10-12	$15.34	$2,807,095,864	14 / 18
2026-10-13	$15.38	$2,808,342,925	14 / 18
2026-10-14	$15.38	$2,808,342,925	14 / 18
2026-10-15	$15.38	$2,808,342,927	14 / 18

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	18	4
2026-06-01	19	4
2026-07-01	20	4
2026-08-01	19	4
2026-09-01	19	4
2026-10-01	19	5

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 19 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

1 upgrades1 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 4 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Wells FargoOct 12

$400.00New observation · no comparable prior

Goldman SachsOct 8

$345.00New observation · no comparable prior

Piper SandlerSep 28

$450.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$247.50$495.00

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 3 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Free cash flow margin near 27%Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Recurring revenue grows double digitsDirect metric needs a verified mapping
SaaS revenue grows 12% or morePublished status: Under Pressure
Repurchase 2.5% of shares in 2026Required source inputs unavailable

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-46.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Tyler Technologies outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on SaaS and recurring revenue growth. The current thesis state is stable, supported by consistent execution and strong financial results.

What's priced into Tyler Technologies

The market appears to have priced in a neutral valuation with a slight premium compared to peers. There is a low expectations gap, indicating that the current performance is largely aligned with what investors anticipate.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to continue benefiting from strong SaaS revenue growth and ongoing share repurchase programs. However, there is a near-term risk due to a history of earnings misses, which could impact investor confidence.

What Tyler Technologies hinges on

The thesis hinges on several factors, including the Fed's interest rate decisions and the performance of sector leaders like SAP and CRM. Additionally, any guidance changes from TYL could significantly influence market sentiment.