NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-08-31
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Create your account →Warn: Primary pillar under pressure — SaaS revenue grows 12% or more: rev +8.2% vs 12%.
Tyler grows SaaS revenue over 20% a year. It repurchases 2.5% of shares in 2026. Recurring revenue rises at least 10% yearly. Free cash flow stays strong near 27%.
SaaS revenue growth may slow due to weak investor sentiment. Profit growth could stall if recurring revenue falls. Share buybacks might slow if cash flow weakens.
The price is about 19% below our fair value near $397. Analysts expect about 12% revenue growth. Our fair value is slightly below the Street median of $420.
Breaks if: Free cash flow margin falls below 23% in FY26
Breaks if: Recurring revenue growth falls below 7% YoY next year
Breaks if: SaaS revenue growth falls below 12% YoY next year
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on SaaS and recurring revenue growth. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial results and a disciplined share repurchase program.
The market seems to have priced in a low level of fragility, reflecting weak execution quality but not fully accounting for potential turbulence. The valuation is aligned with peers, showing a slight premium.
Management has consistently prioritized SaaS and recurring revenue growth, which have shown strong performance. However, there is an elevated risk due to recent earnings misses in the industry, although TYL's miss probability is relatively low.
The thesis hinges on TYL's ability to maintain its growth trajectory and the performance of sector bellwethers like SAP, CRM, and NOW. Any guidance cuts or misses from these companies could negatively impact TYL's momentum.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports the view on SaaS revenue growth. Additionally, the company maintains a strong long-term growth outlook despite market concerns.
as of 2026-08-31
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Share repurchases fall below 1.5% of shares in 2026
Overall, TYL's fundamentals are strong, but the investment outlook depends on broader sector performance and management execution. Not investment advice.
