TherapeuticsMD Inc (TXMD)

NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-10-23

$1.80-2.70%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge TherapeuticsMD Inc’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	22.11M
EPS	—	-5.5
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	9.3M
EPS	—	0.17
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	9.5M
EPS	—	0.19

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Net income improves to positive $95,000 by 2026-Q1	Net income improved from a loss of $653K to a gain of $95K.	Intact	net income falls below -$653,000 next year	Net income: $155,000 FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $95,000. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 11, 2026155,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 31e0e810-eb58-4177-abce-84e1be66bb71. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Net income improved from a loss of $653,000 in 2025-Q1 to a positive $95,000 in 2026-Q1, showing progress toward profitability. The trajectory is delivering improvement in net income. Delivery assessment Aug 10, 2026
Operating loss improves to no worse than -$723,000 by 2026-Q1	A primary condition in TherapeuticsMD Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >= -$723,000.	Intact	operating loss worsens beyond -$1.28M next year	Operating income: $-816,000 FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= -$723,000. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 11, 2026-816,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 31e0e810-eb58-4177-abce-84e1be66bb71. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Revenue grew from $393,000 in 2025-Q1 to $724,000 in 2026-Q1, while operating losses improved from $1,281,000 to $723,000 over the same period. The trajectory shows delivering progress on revenue growth and reducing operating losses. Delivery assessment Aug 10, 2026
Maintain positive cash flow from operations near $944,000 in 2026-Q1	The company keeps positive cash flow from operations near $944K.	Intact	operating cash flow falls below $375,000 next year	Cash from operations: $770,000 FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $375,000. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 11, 2026770,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Cash from operating activities remained positive each quarter, ranging from $375,000 in 2025-Q4 to $999,000 in 2025-Q3, and was $944,000 in 2026-Q1. The company is delivering consistent positive cash flow from operations. Delivery assessment Aug 10, 2026
Revenue grows to at least $724,000 by 2026-Q1	A primary condition in TherapeuticsMD Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >=$724,000.	Intact	revenue falls below $393,000 next year	Revenue: $869,000 FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=$724,000. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 11, 2026869,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 31e0e810-eb58-4177-abce-84e1be66bb71. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Revenue grew from $393,000 in 2025-Q1 to $724,000 in 2026-Q1, while operating losses improved from $1,281,000 to $723,000 over the same period. The trajectory shows delivering progress on revenue growth and reducing operating losses. Delivery assessment Aug 10, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
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2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Monthly analyst history is unavailable.

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Net income improves to positive $95,000 by 2026-Q1Net income: $155,000
Operating loss improves to no worse than -$723,000 by 2026-Q1Operating income: $-816,000
Maintain positive cash flow from operations near $944,000 in 2026-Q1Cash from operations: $770,000
Revenue grows to at least $724,000 by 2026-Q1Revenue: $869,000

Next proof point

Nov 11, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-35.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

TherapeuticsMD Inc outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a small, higher-risk improvement story, not an established durable compounder. The long-term thesis is intact, with management showing progress on revenue growth, operating losses, and net income.

What's priced into TherapeuticsMD Inc

The valuation model indicates a 2.59 premium versus peers, but confidence in that estimate is low. The evidence points to weak execution quality as the main concern already reflected, rather than a full combination of expensive valuation, weak execution, and turbulent conditions.

What the fundamentals likely do

Over the past year, revenue increased and operating losses narrowed, while net income moved from a loss to a small profit; operating cash flow remained positive. Near term, the earnings-miss risk is elevated, and the evidence also flags weakening jobs data as a possible drag on cyclical names.

What TherapeuticsMD Inc hinges on

The multi-year case depends on continued revenue growth, lower operating losses, positive operating cash flow, and further progress toward profitability. Near-term sector conditions also matter: stronger results from Healthcare bellwethers could support the sector backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it.