Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (TSM)

NYSEInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$418.51+1.49%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+4.7%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

696.49 → 729.33 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 11 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 11 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	1,663.4B
EPS	—	160.575
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	5,483.87B
EPS	—	546.044
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	7,538.82B
EPS	—	729.325

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
TSMC's leadership in AI chip manufacturing and advanced packaging	The company expands its advanced packaging capabilities through partnerships and grows its Arizona plant.	Intact	Loss of AI chip leadership or failure to advance packaging technology	Qualitative: Leadership reinforced by Moody's Aa2 upgrade and strong Q3 AI demand Moody's upgraded TSMC to Aa2 on AI dominance; Q3 results strong on AI demand; Samsung collaboration on HBM noted. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
TSMC earnings per share growth	A primary condition in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=$15.91 EPS in FY26 and >=$20.29 EPS in FY27.	Intact	EPS falls below $15.91 in FY26 or $20.29 in FY27	Diluted EPS: TWD 147.15 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=$15.91 EPS in FY26 and >=$20.29 EPS in FY27. Target and observation currencies differ. Source published Sep 30, 2026147.15 TWD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Sep 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q3. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Stable geopolitical environment supporting Taiwan operations	A supporting condition in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd.'s published investment case. The stated target is No major geopolitical disruptions affecting Taiwan or TSMC operations.	Intact	Significant geopolitical events disrupting Taiwan or TSMC operations	No major disruptions reported News shows TSMC seeking equipment alternatives to reduce China exposure and maintaining operations despite localized construction accidents. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
TSMC total revenue growth	A primary condition in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=$5.19 trillion in FY26 and >=$6.63 trillion in FY27.	Intact	revenue falls below $5.19 trillion in FY26 or $6.63 trillion in FY27	Revenue: TWD 1,493.426B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=$5.19 trillion in FY26 and >=$6.63 trillion in FY27. Target and observation currencies differ. Source published Sep 30, 20261,493,425,963,000 TWD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Sep 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q3. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$729.33

$21.29 → $729.33 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$7538.82B

$7091.99B → $7538.82B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$21.29	$7,091,985,680,230	12 / 39
2026-07-25	$21.29	$7,140,297,489,770	12 / 39
2026-07-26	$21.29	$7,140,297,489,770	12 / 39
2026-07-27	$691.37	$7,203,888,238,184	10 / 22
2026-07-28	$21.29	$7,140,297,489,770	12 / 39
2026-07-29	$691.37	$7,203,888,238,184	10 / 22
2026-07-30	$693.68	$7,222,956,113,638	10 / 22
2026-07-31	$21.61	$7,170,335,027,520	13 / 40
2026-08-01	$693.68	$7,222,956,113,638	10 / 22
2026-08-02	$21.61	$7,170,335,027,520	13 / 40
2026-08-03	$694.46	$7,228,396,451,954	10 / 22
2026-08-04	$694.46	$7,228,396,451,954	10 / 22
2026-08-05	$21.61	$7,170,335,027,520	13 / 40
2026-08-06	$21.61	$7,170,335,027,520	13 / 40
2026-08-08	$694.73	$7,226,849,340,667	10 / 22
2026-08-09	$694.73	$7,226,849,340,667	10 / 22
2026-08-10	$694.73	$7,226,849,340,667	10 / 22
2026-08-12	$21.76	$7,207,012,788,020	12 / 40
2026-08-13	$694.73	$7,226,849,340,667	10 / 22
2026-08-14	$694.73	$7,226,849,340,667	10 / 22
2026-08-15	$694.73	$7,226,849,340,667	10 / 22
2026-08-16	$694.73	$7,226,849,340,667	10 / 22
2026-08-17	$694.73	$7,226,849,340,667	10 / 22
2026-08-18	$694.73	$7,226,849,340,667	10 / 22
2026-08-19	$694.73	$7,226,849,340,667	10 / 22
2026-08-20	$697.81	$7,266,728,890,866	10 / 22
2026-08-21	$699.60	$7,267,796,682,586	10 / 22
2026-08-22	$699.61	$7,267,796,682,586	10 / 22
2026-08-23	$699.61	$7,267,796,682,586	10 / 22
2026-08-24	$699.61	$7,267,796,682,586	10 / 22
2026-08-25	$699.61	$7,267,796,682,586	10 / 22
2026-08-26	$699.66	$7,267,796,682,586	10 / 22
2026-08-27	$699.66	$7,267,796,682,586	10 / 22
2026-08-28	$699.66	$7,267,796,682,586	10 / 22
2026-08-29	$698.26	$7,262,931,545,247	10 / 22
2026-08-30	$698.26	$7,262,931,545,247	10 / 22
2026-08-31	$698.26	$7,262,931,545,247	10 / 22
2026-09-01	$700.12	$7,271,878,496,480	10 / 22
2026-09-02	$700.35	$7,271,878,496,480	10 / 22
2026-09-03	$701.46	$7,277,507,433,303	10 / 22
2026-09-04	$701.38	$7,277,507,433,303	10 / 23
2026-09-05	$701.37	$7,277,507,433,303	11 / 23
2026-09-06	$701.37	$7,277,507,433,303	11 / 23
2026-09-07	$701.37	$7,277,507,433,303	11 / 23
2026-09-08	$701.46	$7,277,507,433,303	11 / 23
2026-09-09	$702.76	$7,284,061,959,585	11 / 23
2026-09-10	$702.87	$7,284,080,594,404	11 / 23
2026-09-11	$702.87	$7,284,080,594,404	11 / 23
2026-09-12	$703.64	$7,288,869,336,544	11 / 23
2026-09-13	$703.64	$7,288,869,336,544	11 / 23
2026-09-14	$703.64	$7,288,869,336,544	11 / 23
2026-09-15	$703.99	$7,293,392,544,665	11 / 23
2026-09-16	$704.31	$7,292,698,597,233	11 / 23
2026-09-17	$704.24	$7,292,698,597,233	11 / 23
2026-09-18	$704.24	$7,292,698,597,233	11 / 23
2026-09-19	$704.45	$7,294,997,867,620	11 / 23
2026-09-20	$704.45	$7,294,997,867,620	11 / 23
2026-09-21	$697.95	$7,227,666,424,876	11 / 23
2026-09-22	$695.85	$7,205,942,935,747	11 / 23
2026-09-23	$696.59	$7,227,229,009,745	11 / 23
2026-09-24	$696.49	$7,229,918,025,463	11 / 23
2026-09-25	$696.49	$7,229,974,961,573	11 / 23
2026-09-26	$696.25	$7,227,469,772,743	11 / 23
2026-09-27	$696.10	$7,225,951,476,483	11 / 23
2026-09-28	$697.76	$7,243,184,139,037	11 / 23
2026-09-29	$698.03	$7,247,030,268,346	11 / 23
2026-09-30	$698.60	$7,254,015,287,817	11 / 23
2026-10-01	$699.98	$7,265,850,838,264	11 / 23
2026-10-02	$702.06	$7,282,193,958,152	11 / 23
2026-10-03	$702.71	$7,282,429,075,215	11 / 23
2026-10-04	$702.76	$7,283,091,490,471	11 / 23
2026-10-05	$702.39	$7,279,234,982,485	11 / 23
2026-10-06	$702.39	$7,279,234,982,485	11 / 23
2026-10-07	$704.34	$7,292,600,286,649	11 / 23
2026-10-08	$708.19	$7,316,515,650,427	11 / 23
2026-10-09	$709.39	$7,341,526,617,508	11 / 23
2026-10-10	$709.65	$7,341,997,969,323	11 / 23
2026-10-11	$709.65	$7,341,997,969,323	11 / 23
2026-10-12	$709.84	$7,343,974,301,724	11 / 23
2026-10-13	$715.31	$7,383,791,220,720	11 / 24
2026-10-14	$715.66	$7,380,133,491,341	11 / 24
2026-10-15	$714.87	$7,371,395,853,726	11 / 24
2026-10-16	$720.49	$7,440,725,246,400	11 / 23
2026-10-17	$720.49	$7,440,725,246,400	11 / 23
2026-10-18	$725.18	$7,506,261,346,135	11 / 23
2026-10-19	$725.18	$7,506,261,346,135	11 / 23
2026-10-20	$725.25	$7,512,590,297,441	11 / 23
2026-10-21	$729.07	$7,534,800,420,613	11 / 23
2026-10-22	$728.96	$7,534,800,420,613	11 / 23
2026-10-23	$729.33	$7,538,823,161,059	11 / 23
2026-10-24	$729.33	$7,538,823,161,059	11 / 23

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	17	2
2026-06-01	17	2
2026-07-01	18	2
2026-08-01	18	1
2026-09-01	20	1
2026-10-01	20	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 20 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades4 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 4 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

BarclaysOct 16 · prior Jul 17

$650.00 → $670.00+3.1%

NeedhamOct 15 · prior Jul 27

$530.00 → $560.00+5.7%

$0$368.50$737.00

2 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

TSMC earnings per share growthDiluted EPS: TWD 147.15 per share
TSMC total revenue growthRevenue: TWD 1,493.426B

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

2 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-21.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

TSM is a technology-sector business with a multi-year thesis that is currently marked insufficient, meaning the available evidence does not establish its recent fundamental direction. Overall confidence is low, while the stated risk level is moderate and the sector backdrop is neutral.

What's priced into Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd.

The valuation label recently changed to fair, and the valuation model has high confidence. The evidence gives no detail on market expectations or peer comparisons, so how much future performance is already assumed remains unclear.

What the fundamentals likely do

There is not enough recent financial-performance history in the snapshot to describe a reliable fundamental trajectory. Near-term miss risk is rated low, but the evidence notes recent misses among industry peers and a deep miss in TSM’s recent history.

What Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. hinges on

In the near term, Fed rate cuts could support technology-sector momentum, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from NVDA, AVGO, and MU could reinforce that backdrop. Misses or lower guidance from those companies could weaken it; the snapshot provides little evidence about TSM-specific operating drivers.