T. Rowe Price (TROW)

NASDAQFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-10-15

$100.97-0.39%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge T. Rowe Price’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-1.7%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

10.24 → 10.07 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Cash from operations improves to at least $824.3 million next quarter	Cash from operations improved sharply to $824M, showing strong cash flow.	Intact	cash from operations falls below $0 next quarter	Cash from operations: $387.6M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $824.3 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 31, 2026387,600,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain or increase dividend payout per share to at least $1.30	The company maintains a stable dividend, increasing payout from $1.27 to $1.30 per share.	Intact	dividend per share falls below $1.27 next quarter	Dividend per share: $1.30 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.30 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 31, 20261.3 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 40b9b6e6-eb05-42dd-a775-0665c0cf172c. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. The firm consistently returned capital to shareholders, with dividends per share increasing slightly from $1.27 in 2025-Q1 to $1.30 in 2026-Q1, and total capital returned ranging from $395 million in 2025-Q3 to $629 million in 2026-Q1. Management has maintained a steady commitment to dividend payout and share repurchases. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Operating income growth to at least $680.5 million next quarter	Rowe Price grows operating income strongly, from $471M to $680.5M in Q1 2026.	Broken	operating income falls below $471 million next quarter	Operating income: $540.5M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $680.5 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 31, 2026540,500,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 40b9b6e6-eb05-42dd-a775-0665c0cf172c. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth near 4% annually	A primary condition in T. Rowe Price's published investment case. The stated target is >= 3.8% YoY.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 3.8% next year	Revenue growth: 10.68% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= 3.8% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 31, 202610.682992 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 40b9b6e6-eb05-42dd-a775-0665c0cf172c. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$10.07

$10.41 → $10.07 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$7.86B

$8.04B → $7.86B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$10.41	$8,036,353,216	7 / 5
2026-07-25	$10.38	$8,107,455,120	13 / 6
2026-07-26	$10.38	$8,107,455,120	13 / 6
2026-07-27	$10.38	$8,107,455,120	13 / 6
2026-07-28	$10.41	$8,036,353,216	7 / 5
2026-07-29	$10.41	$8,036,353,216	7 / 5
2026-07-30	$10.41	$8,036,353,216	7 / 5
2026-07-31	$10.35	$8,083,003,140	13 / 6
2026-08-01	$10.38	$8,018,014,230	7 / 5
2026-08-02	$10.29	$8,038,330,440	13 / 6
2026-08-03	$10.31	$8,010,230,043	7 / 5
2026-08-04	$10.29	$8,038,330,440	13 / 6
2026-08-05	$10.31	$8,010,230,043	7 / 5
2026-08-06	$10.25	$7,949,490,030	13 / 5
2026-08-08	$10.31	$8,010,230,043	7 / 5
2026-08-09	$10.26	$7,949,490,030	13 / 5
2026-08-10	$10.26	$7,949,490,030	13 / 5
2026-08-12	$10.31	$8,010,230,043	7 / 5
2026-08-13	$10.28	$7,949,490,030	13 / 5
2026-08-14	$10.31	$8,010,230,043	7 / 5
2026-08-15	$10.31	$8,010,230,043	7 / 5
2026-08-16	$10.31	$8,010,230,043	7 / 5
2026-08-17	$10.31	$8,010,230,043	7 / 5
2026-08-18	$10.31	$8,010,230,043	7 / 5
2026-08-19	$10.31	$8,010,230,043	7 / 5
2026-08-20	$10.22	$7,964,753,727	7 / 5
2026-08-21	$10.22	$7,964,753,727	7 / 5
2026-08-22	$10.22	$7,964,753,727	7 / 5
2026-08-23	$10.22	$7,964,753,727	8 / 5
2026-08-24	$10.22	$7,964,753,727	8 / 5
2026-08-25	$10.22	$7,964,753,727	8 / 5
2026-08-26	$10.22	$7,964,753,727	8 / 5
2026-08-27	$10.22	$7,964,753,727	8 / 5
2026-08-28	$10.22	$7,964,753,727	8 / 5
2026-08-29	$10.22	$7,964,753,727	8 / 5
2026-08-30	$10.22	$7,964,753,727	8 / 5
2026-08-31	$10.22	$7,964,753,727	8 / 5
2026-09-01	$10.24	$7,964,447,757	8 / 5
2026-09-02	$10.24	$7,964,447,757	8 / 5
2026-09-03	$10.24	$7,964,447,757	8 / 5
2026-09-04	$10.24	$7,964,447,757	8 / 5
2026-09-05	$10.24	$7,964,447,757	8 / 5
2026-09-06	$10.24	$7,964,447,757	8 / 5
2026-09-07	$10.24	$7,964,447,757	8 / 5
2026-09-08	$10.24	$7,964,447,757	8 / 5
2026-09-09	$10.24	$7,964,447,757	8 / 5
2026-09-10	$10.24	$7,964,447,757	8 / 5
2026-09-11	$10.24	$7,964,447,757	8 / 5
2026-09-12	$10.24	$7,964,447,757	8 / 5
2026-09-13	$10.24	$7,964,447,757	8 / 5
2026-09-14	$10.24	$7,964,447,757	8 / 5
2026-09-15	$10.24	$7,964,447,757	8 / 5
2026-09-16	$10.24	$7,964,447,757	8 / 5
2026-09-17	$10.24	$7,964,447,757	8 / 5
2026-09-18	$10.24	$7,964,447,757	8 / 5
2026-09-19	$10.24	$7,964,447,757	8 / 5
2026-09-20	$10.24	$7,964,447,757	8 / 6
2026-09-21	$10.24	$7,964,447,757	8 / 6
2026-09-22	$10.24	$7,964,447,757	8 / 6
2026-09-23	$10.24	$7,964,447,757	8 / 6
2026-09-24	$10.24	$7,964,447,757	8 / 6
2026-09-25	$10.24	$7,964,447,757	8 / 6
2026-09-26	$10.24	$7,947,481,459	8 / 6
2026-09-27	$10.24	$7,947,481,459	8 / 6
2026-09-28	$10.24	$7,947,481,459	8 / 6
2026-09-29	$10.24	$7,947,481,459	7 / 6
2026-09-30	$10.24	$7,947,481,459	8 / 6
2026-10-01	$10.24	$7,947,481,459	8 / 6
2026-10-02	$10.24	$7,947,481,459	8 / 6
2026-10-03	$10.24	$7,947,481,459	8 / 6
2026-10-04	$10.25	$7,956,183,570	8 / 6
2026-10-05	$10.25	$7,956,183,570	8 / 6
2026-10-06	$10.25	$7,956,183,570	8 / 6
2026-10-07	$10.21	$7,942,735,420	8 / 6
2026-10-08	$10.16	$7,913,511,941	8 / 7
2026-10-09	$10.16	$7,913,511,941	8 / 7
2026-10-10	$10.16	$7,913,511,941	8 / 7
2026-10-11	$10.19	$7,913,511,941	8 / 7
2026-10-12	$10.19	$7,913,511,941	8 / 7
2026-10-13	$10.08	$7,869,152,861	8 / 7
2026-10-14	$10.07	$7,861,566,461	8 / 6
2026-10-15	$10.07	$7,861,566,461	8 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	9	4
2026-06-01	9	4
2026-07-01	9	4
2026-08-01	9	4
2026-09-01	9	4
2026-10-01	10	4

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 10 Hold · 4 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades6 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 6 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Evercore ISIOct 9 · prior Aug 10

$118.00 → $109.00-7.6%

UBSOct 7 · prior Aug 31

$110.00 → $107.00-2.7%

Morgan StanleySep 25 · prior Jul 29

$116.00 → $110.00-5.2%

$0$64.90$129.80

0 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Cash from operations improves to at least $824.3 million next quarterCash from operations: $387.6M
Maintain or increase dividend payout per share to at least $1.30Dividend per share: $1.30 per share
Operating income growth to at least $680.5 million next quarterPublished status: Broken
Revenue growth near 4% annuallyRevenue growth: 10.68%

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-19.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

T. Rowe Price outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a stable company with a focus on growing assets under management and expanding its ETF and alternatives business. The current thesis is in a watch state, reflecting mixed recent performance and a muted price reaction.

What's priced into T. Rowe Price

The market currently prices TROW as cheap compared to its peers, with a slight expectations gap indicating that some cautious sentiment is already reflected in its valuation. The company's fragility is considered low, suggesting that the market does not fully account for potential execution risks.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track with its priorities, showing growth in assets under management and investment advisory fees. However, operating expenses are rising, which could impact operating income if not managed effectively.

What T. Rowe Price hinges on

Key factors for TROW's future include the performance of sector bellwethers like BLK, BX, and KKR, as well as guidance updates from management. Additionally, changes in Federal Reserve interest rate policy could significantly affect the company's performance.