Trimble Inc. (TRMB)

NASDAQInformation TechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-10-15

$59.46-2.48%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Trimble Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

4.12 → 4.14 EPS · FY ending Jan 2, 2028 · 7 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

5 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
EPS guidance for FY26	A primary condition in Trimble Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is EPS ~3.56 USD per share.	Under Pressure	EPS guidance falls below $3.47 next year	Diluted EPS: $-2.02 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS ~3.56 USD per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 12, 2026-2.02 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 3, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 0dab23d1-0fb8-4bd9-89f1-c73da453f97e. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Management stability and guidance credibility	A supporting condition in Trimble Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is No material weakness in audit or guidance credibility.	Intact	Audit chair shift causes material weakness or guidance loss	Guidance raised to $3.92B rev / $3.65 EPS; no material weakness reported Trimble raised 2026 revenue guidance to $3.925B and EPS to $3.65, with record ARR reported in Q2 2026. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Annualized recurring revenue (ARR) growth	A primary condition in Trimble Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=12% YoY ARR growth.	Intact	ARR growth falls below 12% YoY next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Total revenue growth	A primary condition in Trimble Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=7.5% YoY.	Under Pressure	YoY revenue growth falls below 7.5% in FY26	Revenue growth: 11% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=7.5% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 12, 202610.996917 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 3, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 0dab23d1-0fb8-4bd9-89f1-c73da453f97e. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Share repurchase program execution	A supporting condition in Trimble Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Repurchase >=$316.9 million in shares.	Intact	Share repurchase falls below $316.9 million in Q1 2026	Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Share repurchases from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. The Board authorized a $1.0 billion share repurchase program in 2026-Q2, replacing the prior authorization. Share repurchases totaled $677.4 million year-to-date in 2025-Q2 and $317 million in 2026-Q1. Management is delivering on capital return with ongoing repurchases. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-02 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$4.14

$4.08 → $4.14 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$4.24B

$4.21B → $4.24B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$4.08	$4,210,557,594	8 / 9
2026-07-25	$4.08	$4,210,557,594	8 / 9
2026-07-26	$4.08	$4,210,256,644	8 / 9
2026-07-27	$4.08	$4,210,256,644	8 / 9
2026-07-28	$4.08	$4,210,256,644	8 / 9
2026-07-29	$4.08	$4,210,256,644	8 / 9
2026-07-30	$4.08	$4,210,256,644	8 / 9
2026-07-31	$4.08	$4,210,256,644	8 / 9
2026-08-01	$4.08	$4,210,256,644	8 / 9
2026-08-02	$4.08	$4,210,256,644	8 / 9
2026-08-03	$4.08	$4,210,256,644	8 / 9
2026-08-04	$4.08	$4,210,256,644	8 / 9
2026-08-05	$4.08	$4,210,256,644	8 / 9
2026-08-06	$4.08	$4,210,256,644	8 / 9
2026-08-08	$4.08	$4,210,256,644	8 / 9
2026-08-09	$4.08	$4,210,256,644	8 / 9
2026-08-10	$4.08	$4,210,256,644	8 / 9
2026-08-12	$4.08	$4,210,256,644	8 / 9
2026-08-13	$4.08	$4,210,256,644	8 / 9
2026-08-14	$4.08	$4,210,256,644	8 / 9
2026-08-15	$4.08	$4,210,256,644	8 / 9
2026-08-16	$4.08	$4,210,256,644	8 / 9
2026-08-17	$4.08	$4,210,256,644	8 / 9
2026-08-18	$4.08	$4,210,256,644	8 / 9
2026-08-19	$4.08	$4,210,256,644	8 / 9
2026-08-20	$4.12	$4,236,123,166	8 / 9
2026-08-21	$4.12	$4,236,123,166	8 / 9
2026-08-22	$4.12	$4,236,123,166	8 / 9
2026-08-23	$4.12	$4,236,123,166	8 / 9
2026-08-24	$4.12	$4,236,123,166	8 / 9
2026-08-25	$4.12	$4,236,123,166	8 / 9
2026-08-26	$4.12	$4,236,123,166	8 / 9
2026-08-27	$4.12	$4,236,123,166	8 / 9
2026-08-28	$4.12	$4,236,123,166	8 / 9
2026-08-29	$4.12	$4,236,123,166	8 / 9
2026-08-30	$4.12	$4,236,123,166	8 / 9
2026-08-31	$4.12	$4,236,123,166	8 / 9
2026-09-01	$4.12	$4,236,123,166	8 / 9
2026-09-02	$4.12	$4,236,085,167	8 / 9
2026-09-03	$4.12	$4,236,085,167	8 / 9
2026-09-04	$4.12	$4,236,085,167	8 / 9
2026-09-05	$4.12	$4,236,085,167	8 / 9
2026-09-06	$4.12	$4,236,085,167	8 / 9
2026-09-07	$4.12	$4,236,085,167	8 / 9
2026-09-08	$4.12	$4,236,085,167	8 / 9
2026-09-09	$4.12	$4,236,085,167	8 / 9
2026-09-10	$4.12	$4,236,085,167	8 / 9
2026-09-11	$4.12	$4,236,085,167	8 / 9
2026-09-12	$4.12	$4,236,085,167	8 / 9
2026-09-13	$4.12	$4,236,085,167	8 / 9
2026-09-14	$4.12	$4,236,085,167	8 / 9
2026-09-15	$4.12	$4,236,085,167	8 / 9
2026-09-16	$4.12	$4,236,085,167	8 / 9
2026-09-17	$4.12	$4,236,085,167	8 / 9
2026-09-18	$4.12	$4,236,085,167	8 / 9
2026-09-19	$4.12	$4,236,085,167	8 / 9
2026-09-20	$4.12	$4,236,085,167	8 / 9
2026-09-21	$4.12	$4,236,085,167	8 / 9
2026-09-22	$4.12	$4,236,085,167	8 / 9
2026-09-23	$4.12	$4,236,085,167	8 / 9
2026-09-24	$4.12	$4,236,085,167	8 / 9
2026-09-25	$4.12	$4,236,085,167	8 / 9
2026-09-26	$4.12	$4,236,085,167	8 / 9
2026-09-27	$4.12	$4,236,085,167	7 / 9
2026-09-28	$4.14	$4,240,220,182	7 / 9
2026-09-29	$4.14	$4,240,220,182	7 / 9
2026-09-30	$4.14	$4,240,220,182	7 / 9
2026-10-01	$4.14	$4,240,220,182	7 / 9
2026-10-02	$4.14	$4,240,220,182	7 / 9
2026-10-03	$4.14	$4,240,220,182	7 / 9
2026-10-04	$4.14	$4,240,220,182	7 / 9
2026-10-05	$4.14	$4,240,220,182	7 / 9
2026-10-06	$4.14	$4,240,220,182	7 / 9
2026-10-07	$4.14	$4,240,220,182	7 / 9
2026-10-08	$4.14	$4,240,220,182	7 / 9
2026-10-09	$4.14	$4,240,011,212	7 / 9
2026-10-10	$4.14	$4,240,011,212	7 / 9
2026-10-11	$4.14	$4,240,011,212	7 / 9
2026-10-12	$4.14	$4,240,011,212	7 / 9
2026-10-13	$4.14	$4,240,011,212	7 / 9
2026-10-14	$4.14	$4,239,978,116	7 / 9
2026-10-15	$4.14	$4,239,978,116	7 / 9

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	13	0
2026-06-01	13	0
2026-07-01	13	1
2026-08-01	12	1
2026-09-01	12	1
2026-10-01	11	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

EPS guidance for FY26Published status: Under Pressure
Annualized recurring revenue (ARR) growthDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Total revenue growthPublished status: Under Pressure
Share repurchase program executionRequired source inputs unavailable

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 5 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-41.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Trimble Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on growing annual recurring revenue (ARR). The current thesis state is intact, supported by management's execution on key priorities, although there are some near-term risks.

What's priced into Trimble Inc.

The market appears to price TRMB as a company that is currently undervalued compared to its peers. There is a gap in expectations, indicating that the market may not fully account for the company's recent performance and growth potential.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track with its priorities, including growing ARR and executing share repurchase programs. Recent financial performance has been neutral, with a low probability of missing guidance, although there is a history of deeper misses that investors should keep in mind.

What Trimble Inc. hinges on

The thesis hinges on several factors, including the potential for favorable interest rate changes and the performance of sector bellwethers. Additionally, any negative guidance from management could significantly impact investor sentiment.