Targa Resources (TRGP)

NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamSnapshot 2026-10-15

$294.90+4.37%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Targa Resources’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+1.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

12.28 → 12.41 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 10 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Increase adjusted EBITDA to $5.7-$5.9 billion in 2026	Targa Resources aims to grow adjusted EBITDA to $5.7-$5.9 billion in 2026.	Intact	adjusted EBITDA falls below $5.7 billion in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA guidance increased from $5.4-$5.6 billion in 2025-Q4 to $5.7-$5.9 billion by 2026-Q2, reflecting strong volume growth and marketing margin. The trajectory is delivering with record quarterly adjusted EBITDA reported in 2026-Q1 and Q2. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Recommend $5.00 annual dividend per share in 2026	It also targets a $5.00 annual dividend per share in 2026, a 25% increase.	Intact	annual dividend falls below $5.00 in 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management declared quarterly dividends of $1.25 in 2026-Q2, annualizing to $5.00, a 25% increase over 2025's $4.00. The dividend increase has been consistently communicated and executed, indicating delivery on this capital return priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Maintain net growth capital expenditures near $4.5 billion in 2026	The company plans to maintain net growth capital spending near $4.5 billion.	Intact	net growth capex significantly exceeds $4.5 billion in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. The company consistently estimates 2026 net growth capital expenditures at approximately $4.5 billion, supporting ongoing infrastructure projects. This steady guidance matches management's stated capital allocation discipline. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$12.41

$11.93 → $12.41 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$23.95B

$22.96B → $23.95B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$11.93	$22,963,801,580	6 / 9
2026-07-25	$11.93	$22,963,801,580	6 / 9
2026-07-26	$12.42	$22,963,281,038	10 / 7
2026-07-27	$12.42	$22,963,281,038	10 / 7
2026-07-28	$12.42	$22,963,281,038	10 / 7
2026-07-29	$12.44	$23,010,059,038	10 / 7
2026-07-30	$11.96	$22,981,257,360	6 / 9
2026-07-31	$12.44	$23,010,059,038	10 / 7
2026-08-01	$12.44	$23,010,059,038	10 / 7
2026-08-02	$11.96	$22,981,257,360	6 / 9
2026-08-03	$11.96	$22,981,257,360	6 / 9
2026-08-04	$11.96	$22,981,257,360	6 / 9
2026-08-05	$11.94	$23,015,657,360	5 / 9
2026-08-06	$11.94	$23,015,657,360	5 / 9
2026-08-08	$12.45	$23,044,459,038	10 / 7
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$23,138,483,690	4 / 9
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$23,138,483,690	4 / 9
2026-08-12	$12.02	$23,283,294,800	5 / 9
2026-08-13	$12.45	$23,044,459,038	10 / 7
2026-08-14	$12.45	$23,044,459,038	10 / 7
2026-08-15	$12.45	$23,044,459,038	10 / 7
2026-08-16	$12.45	$23,044,459,038	10 / 7
2026-08-17	$12.45	$23,044,459,038	10 / 7
2026-08-18	$12.45	$23,044,459,038	10 / 7
2026-08-19	$12.45	$23,044,459,038	10 / 7
2026-08-20	$12.36	$22,948,342,941	10 / 7
2026-08-21	$12.32	$22,948,342,941	10 / 7
2026-08-22	$12.32	$22,948,342,941	10 / 7
2026-08-23	$12.32	$22,948,342,941	10 / 7
2026-08-24	$12.32	$22,948,342,941	10 / 7
2026-08-25	$12.32	$22,948,342,941	10 / 7
2026-08-26	$12.32	$22,948,342,941	10 / 7
2026-08-27	$12.32	$22,948,342,941	10 / 7
2026-08-28	$12.32	$22,948,342,941	10 / 7
2026-08-29	$12.32	$22,948,342,941	10 / 7
2026-08-30	$12.32	$22,948,342,941	10 / 7
2026-08-31	$12.32	$22,948,342,941	10 / 7
2026-09-01	$12.32	$22,948,342,941	10 / 7
2026-09-02	$12.32	$22,948,342,941	10 / 7
2026-09-03	$12.30	$22,948,342,941	10 / 7
2026-09-04	$12.30	$22,948,342,941	10 / 7
2026-09-05	$12.30	$22,948,342,941	10 / 7
2026-09-06	$12.30	$22,948,342,941	10 / 7
2026-09-07	$12.31	$23,671,920,504	9 / 7
2026-09-08	$12.31	$23,671,920,504	9 / 7
2026-09-09	$12.31	$23,671,920,504	9 / 7
2026-09-10	$12.31	$23,671,920,504	9 / 7
2026-09-11	$12.28	$23,671,920,504	9 / 6
2026-09-12	$12.28	$23,671,920,504	10 / 6
2026-09-13	$12.28	$23,671,920,504	10 / 6
2026-09-14	$12.28	$23,671,920,504	10 / 6
2026-09-15	$12.28	$23,671,920,504	10 / 6
2026-09-16	$12.28	$23,671,920,504	10 / 6
2026-09-17	$12.30	$23,728,882,288	10 / 6
2026-09-18	$12.30	$23,728,882,288	10 / 6
2026-09-19	$12.34	$23,811,522,002	10 / 6
2026-09-20	$12.34	$23,811,522,002	10 / 6
2026-09-21	$12.34	$23,811,522,002	10 / 6
2026-09-22	$12.34	$23,811,522,002	10 / 6
2026-09-23	$12.33	$23,811,522,002	10 / 6
2026-09-24	$12.33	$23,811,522,002	10 / 6
2026-09-25	$12.33	$23,811,522,002	10 / 6
2026-09-26	$12.33	$23,811,522,002	10 / 6
2026-09-27	$12.33	$23,811,522,002	10 / 6
2026-09-28	$12.33	$23,811,522,002	10 / 6
2026-09-29	$12.33	$23,811,522,002	10 / 6
2026-09-30	$12.33	$23,811,522,002	10 / 6
2026-10-01	$12.33	$23,811,522,002	10 / 6
2026-10-02	$12.33	$23,811,522,002	10 / 6
2026-10-03	$12.33	$23,811,522,002	10 / 6
2026-10-04	$12.33	$23,811,522,002	10 / 6
2026-10-05	$12.33	$23,811,522,002	10 / 6
2026-10-06	$12.33	$23,811,522,002	10 / 6
2026-10-07	$12.33	$23,811,522,002	10 / 6
2026-10-08	$12.32	$23,876,065,245	10 / 6
2026-10-09	$12.33	$23,876,065,245	10 / 6
2026-10-10	$12.33	$23,876,065,245	10 / 6
2026-10-11	$12.33	$23,876,065,245	10 / 6
2026-10-12	$12.33	$23,876,065,245	10 / 6
2026-10-13	$12.33	$23,876,065,245	10 / 6
2026-10-14	$12.36	$23,949,278,620	10 / 6
2026-10-15	$12.41	$23,949,278,620	10 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	21	3
2026-06-01	20	3
2026-07-01	20	3
2026-08-01	20	3
2026-09-01	21	3
2026-10-01	21	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 21 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

1 upgrades0 downgrades4 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 5 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

ScotiabankOct 15 · prior Sep 10

$314.00 → $319.00+1.6%

JefferiesOct 15 · prior Aug 18

$345.00 → $326.00-5.5%

Goldman SachsOct 13 · prior Apr 20

$268.00 → $322.00+20.1%

Stifel NicolausOct 9 · prior May 8

$268.00 → $335.00+25.0%

BarclaysOct 8 · prior Aug 7

$284.00 → $294.00+3.5%

Truist FinancialSep 21 · prior May 12

$289.00 → $345.00+19.4%

Morgan StanleySep 16 · prior Aug 18

$343.00 → $359.00+4.7%

$0$197.45$394.90

6 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Increase adjusted EBITDA to $5.7-$5.9 billion in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Recommend $5.00 annual dividend per share in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Maintain net growth capital expenditures near $4.5 billion in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-10.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Targa Resources outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment is characterized as a durable compounder with a focus on steady growth and capital returns. The current thesis state is stable, with recent performance indicating that the reasons for investment are still valid.

What's priced into Targa Resources

The market appears to have priced in a premium compared to peers, reflecting elevated expectations. However, there is an expectations gap, suggesting that some of the anticipated growth may not be fully justified given the current valuation.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to remain stable, with management on track to increase adjusted EBITDA and maintain dividend payouts. There is a moderate risk of missing guidance, but the recent financial performance has been solid.

What Targa Resources hinges on

The thesis hinges on several factors, including inflation trends and the performance of sector leaders like ENB, WMB, and KMI. Additionally, any potential cuts to guidance would negatively impact sentiment and estimates.