Tapestry, Inc. (TPR)

NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryLuxury GoodsSnapshot 2026-10-15

$120.18+0.36%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Tapestry, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

8.91 → 8.92 EPS · FY ending Jun 27, 2028 · 12 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 12 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
EPS grows over 35% to at least $6.95 in FY 2026	Tapestry grows revenue over $7.95 billion in FY 2026, a 14% rise.	Broken	EPS growth falls below 7.0% YoY in FY 2026	Diluted EPS: $1.66 per share FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >=6.95 USD_PER_SHARE. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 13, 20261.66 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Jun 27, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q4. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue grows to at least $7.95 billion in FY 2026	Tapestry grows revenue over $7.95 billion in FY 2026, a 14% rise.	Intact	Revenue falls below $6.95 billion in FY 2026	Revenue: $1.877B FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >=7.95 USD_BILLIONS. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 13, 20261,876,600,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Jun 27, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q4. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Return at least $1.6 billion to shareholders in FY 2026	The company returns $1.6 billion to shareholders this year.	Intact	Shareholder returns fall below $1.05 billion year-to-date in FY 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-27 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$8.92

$8.88 → $8.92 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$9.01B

$8.98B → $9.01B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-08-14	$8.88	$8,978,489,677	7 / 12
2026-08-15	$8.88	$8,978,489,677	7 / 12
2026-08-16	$8.88	$8,978,489,677	7 / 12
2026-08-17	$8.88	$8,978,489,677	7 / 12
2026-08-18	$8.88	$8,978,489,677	13 / 15
2026-08-19	$8.88	$8,978,489,677	14 / 16
2026-08-20	$8.89	$8,993,572,699	12 / 15
2026-08-21	$8.89	$8,993,572,699	12 / 15
2026-08-22	$8.89	$8,993,572,699	12 / 15
2026-08-23	$8.89	$8,993,572,699	12 / 15
2026-08-24	$8.89	$8,993,572,699	12 / 15
2026-08-25	$8.89	$8,993,570,460	12 / 15
2026-08-26	$8.89	$8,993,570,460	12 / 15
2026-08-27	$8.89	$8,993,570,460	12 / 15
2026-08-28	$8.89	$8,993,570,460	12 / 15
2026-08-29	$8.89	$8,993,570,460	12 / 15
2026-08-30	$8.89	$8,993,570,460	12 / 15
2026-08-31	$8.89	$8,993,570,460	12 / 15
2026-09-01	$8.92	$9,022,015,781	12 / 15
2026-09-02	$8.92	$9,022,015,781	12 / 15
2026-09-03	$8.92	$9,022,015,781	12 / 15
2026-09-04	$8.92	$9,022,015,781	12 / 15
2026-09-05	$8.92	$9,022,015,781	12 / 15
2026-09-06	$8.92	$9,022,015,781	12 / 15
2026-09-07	$8.92	$9,022,015,781	12 / 15
2026-09-08	$8.92	$9,022,015,781	12 / 15
2026-09-09	$8.92	$9,022,015,781	12 / 15
2026-09-10	$8.92	$9,022,015,781	12 / 15
2026-09-11	$8.92	$9,022,015,781	12 / 15
2026-09-12	$8.91	$9,011,403,793	12 / 15
2026-09-13	$8.91	$9,011,403,793	12 / 15
2026-09-14	$8.91	$9,011,403,793	12 / 15
2026-09-15	$8.91	$9,011,428,188	12 / 15
2026-09-16	$8.91	$9,011,428,188	12 / 15
2026-09-17	$8.91	$9,011,428,188	12 / 15
2026-09-18	$8.91	$9,011,428,188	12 / 15
2026-09-19	$8.91	$9,011,428,188	12 / 15
2026-09-20	$8.91	$9,011,428,188	12 / 15
2026-09-21	$8.91	$9,011,428,188	12 / 15
2026-09-22	$8.91	$9,011,428,188	12 / 15
2026-09-23	$8.91	$9,011,428,188	12 / 15
2026-09-24	$8.91	$9,011,428,188	12 / 15
2026-09-25	$8.91	$9,011,428,188	12 / 15
2026-09-26	$8.91	$9,011,428,188	12 / 15
2026-09-27	$8.91	$9,011,428,188	12 / 15
2026-09-28	$8.91	$9,011,428,188	12 / 15
2026-09-29	$8.91	$9,011,428,188	12 / 15
2026-09-30	$8.91	$9,011,428,188	12 / 15
2026-10-01	$8.91	$9,011,428,188	12 / 15
2026-10-02	$8.92	$9,011,428,188	12 / 15
2026-10-03	$8.92	$9,011,428,188	12 / 15
2026-10-04	$8.92	$9,011,428,188	12 / 15
2026-10-05	$8.92	$9,011,428,188	12 / 15
2026-10-06	$8.92	$9,011,428,188	12 / 15
2026-10-07	$8.92	$9,011,428,188	12 / 15
2026-10-08	$8.92	$9,011,428,188	12 / 15
2026-10-09	$8.92	$9,011,428,188	12 / 15
2026-10-10	$8.92	$9,011,428,188	12 / 15
2026-10-11	$8.92	$9,011,428,188	12 / 15
2026-10-12	$8.92	$9,011,428,188	12 / 15
2026-10-13	$8.92	$9,011,428,188	12 / 15
2026-10-14	$8.92	$9,011,428,188	12 / 15
2026-10-15	$8.92	$9,011,428,188	12 / 15

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	15	6	2
2026-06-01	15	5	1
2026-07-01	16	5	1
2026-08-01	17	5	2
2026-09-01	17	4	1
2026-10-01	17	4	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 17 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

EPS grows over 35% to at least $6.95 in FY 2026Published status: Broken
Revenue grows to at least $7.95 billion in FY 2026Revenue: $1.877B
Return at least $1.6 billion to shareholders in FY 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.5%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-32.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Tapestry, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on revenue growth and shareholder returns. The current thesis state is stable, supported by consistent management priorities but facing some sector challenges.

What's priced into Tapestry, Inc.

The market appears to have priced in a low level of fragility, reflecting weak execution quality but not an overly expensive valuation. Expectations are slightly negative, indicating that the market is cautious but not overly pessimistic about TPR's prospects.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to show moderate growth, with management focusing on revenue and margin expansion. Recent financial performance has been neutral, but there is a low probability of missing earnings expectations, which adds some stability.

What Tapestry, Inc. hinges on

The thesis hinges on several factors, including management's ability to meet guidance, inflation trends, and the performance of sector peers. If inflation rises or guidance is cut, it could negatively impact TPR.