Tompkins Financial Corporation (TMP)
NYSE MKTFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-09
$96.97-1.47%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSE MKTFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Sustain EPS near $7.53 in FY26: FY26 EPS guidance $1.82 vs $7.53 target.
Tompkins Financial grows earnings steadily with 26.8% revenue growth last quarter. Profit rose 32.5% to $26.1M, showing strong execution. The company keeps raising dividends, now $0.67 per share. Cash flow from operations doubled to $73.4M, supporting financial strength.
Revenue could decline as analysts expect a 2.5% drop next year. Profit growth may slow if operational efficiencies stall. Dividend increases depend on sustained earnings and cash flow.
The stock price is about 20% above our valuation level. Analysts expect revenue to decline 2.5% next year, but we see potential for earnings growth and dividend stability that could exceed these expectations.
Breaks if: Cash from operations falls below $73.4M
Breaks if: Dividend per share falls below $0.67
Breaks if: EPS falls below $7.53 in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This is a durable compounder with a medium confidence level. The company has demonstrated robust earnings quality and a commitment to increasing dividends, which supports a stable long-term investment thesis.
The market appears to have a neutral valuation for TMP, with expectations that are slightly above average compared to peers. There is a low level of fragility in the current setup, but the valuation is described as stretched, indicating that the market may be anticipating continued strong performance.
Fundamentals are likely to remain strong in the near term, as management is on track with their priorities of maintaining dividend growth and delivering consistent earnings beats. However, there is a moderate risk of missing earnings estimates due to the company's smaller size and past performance history.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports this improvement. There are no new threats identified that could weaken the thesis.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Revenue growth falls below -2.5% YoY
The future performance of TMP hinges on the guidance provided in the next earnings call and the performance of sector bellwethers like HDB, IBN, and PNC. If these companies continue to perform well, it could provide a favorable backdrop for TMP; conversely, negative guidance from them could impact TMP's momentum.
Overall, TMP's long-term thesis remains intact with strong fundamentals and a focus on dividends. Not investment advice.