TE Connectivity (TEL)

NYSEInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-10-15

$212.64-0.16%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge TE Connectivity’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Increase adjusted EPS by 17%	A primary condition in TE Connectivity's published investment case. The stated target is >=2.83 USD per share.	Intact	Adjusted EPS falls below $2.83 in 2026-Q3	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Adjusted EPS increased from $2.10 in 2025-Q2 to $2.94 in 2026-Q3, a 40% rise, with GAAP diluted EPS up 19% over the same period. Management consistently targets double-digit EPS growth and is delivering accordingly. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Maintain orders momentum	A supporting condition in TE Connectivity's published investment case. The stated target is Orders >= $5.3 billion.	Intact	Orders fall below $5.3 billion in 2026-Q1	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve double-digit sales growth	A primary condition in TE Connectivity's published investment case. The stated target is >=10% YoY revenue growth.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 10% next year	Revenue growth: 13.81% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=10% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 24, 202613.806793 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jun 26, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: b8097a96-b7e6-475c-a1c7-5ef51f1261b7. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Revenue grew from $4.53B in 2025-Q3 to $5.16B in 2026-Q3, a 14% increase, with Industrial segment sales up 24% in fiscal 2025 and over 20% in recent quarters. Management consistently emphasizes double-digit sales growth and is delivering on this trajectory. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-26 · fmp

FY2028 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2028 revenue$23.31B

$23.23B → $23.31B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-09-27	Unavailable	$23,225,349,826	4 / 10
2026-09-28	Unavailable	$23,225,349,826	4 / 10
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$23,225,349,826	4 / 10
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$23,225,349,826	4 / 10
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$23,225,349,826	4 / 10
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$23,225,349,826	4 / 10
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$23,225,349,826	4 / 10
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$23,225,349,826	4 / 10
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$23,225,349,826	4 / 10
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$23,247,599,270	4 / 10
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$23,258,739,343	4 / 10
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$23,247,506,351	4 / 10
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$23,312,983,665	4 / 11
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$23,312,983,665	4 / 11
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$23,312,983,665	4 / 11
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$23,312,983,665	4 / 11
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$23,312,982,223	4 / 11
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$23,312,982,223	4 / 11
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$23,312,982,223	4 / 11

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	13	6
2026-06-01	13	7
2026-07-01	13	7
2026-08-01	12	7
2026-09-01	13	7
2026-10-01	13	6

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 13 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

UBSOct 7 · prior Jul 23

$241.00 → $253.00+5.0%

Industrial Alliance SecuritiesOct 6

$288.00New observation · no comparable prior

BernsteinSep 23

$243.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$158.40$316.80

1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Increase adjusted EPS by 17%Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Maintain orders momentumDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Achieve double-digit sales growthRevenue growth: 13.81%

Next proof point

Oct 28, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-21.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

TE Connectivity outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on growth. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance and management's commitment to double-digit growth.

What's priced into TE Connectivity

The market appears to price TEL as cheap compared to its peers, with a slight expectations gap. The valuation has fallen recently, indicating that investors may not fully recognize the company's growth potential despite its strong performance.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track to achieve its goals of double-digit sales and earnings growth, which is encouraging. However, the fragile earnings quality suggests that there could be challenges ahead, especially if industry peers continue to miss expectations.

What TE Connectivity hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on several factors, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and the performance of sector leaders like NVDA and TSM. Additionally, any guidance cuts from TEL could negatively impact investor sentiment.

Bottom line

Overall, TEL's strong recent results and management focus on growth provide a solid foundation for the next few years. However, the fragile earnings quality and potential risks warrant careful observation. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.