Sunbelt Rentals Holdings Inc (SUNB)

NYSEIndustrialsRental & Leasing ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-15

$76.02-0.64%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Sunbelt Rentals Holdings Inc’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Capital expenditures rise to $2.2-$2.3 billion	Capital spending is planned to rise to $2.3 billion to support growth.	Intact	Capital expenditures fall below $1.8 billion or exceed $2.5 billion in FY26	Capital expenditures: $96M FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: 2.2 to 2.3 USD_BILLIONS. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Sep 9, 202696,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q1 · Period ending Jul 31, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2027-Q1. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Free cash flow reaches approximately $2 billion	Management targets $2 billion free cash flow in fiscal 2026.	Intact	Free cash flow falls below $1.5 billion in FY26	Free cash flow: $744M FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >=2.0 USD_BILLIONS. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Sep 9, 2026744,000,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q1 · Period ending Jul 31, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2027-Q1. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income stays strong near $492 million quarterly	Sunbelt Rentals grows revenue about 9% yearly with strong operating income.	Intact	Operating income falls below $400 million quarterly	Operating income: $691M FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >=492 USD_MILLIONS quarterly. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Sep 9, 2026691,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q1 · Period ending Jul 31, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: a84a105c-01be-4418-89e8-fcc767691d7a. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue grows at least 8.9% year over year	A primary condition in Sunbelt Rentals Holdings Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >=8.9% YoY.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 6% in FY26	Revenue growth: 11.21% FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >=8.9% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Sep 9, 202611.210282 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q1 · Period ending Jul 31, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: a84a105c-01be-4418-89e8-fcc767691d7a. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-04-30 · fmp

FY2028 EPSUnavailable

$4.40 → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$13.05B

$12.61B → $13.05B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$4.40	$12,607,931,970	6 / 15
2026-07-25	$4.40	$12,607,931,970	6 / 15
2026-07-26	$4.40	$12,607,931,970	6 / 15
2026-07-27	$4.40	$12,607,931,970	6 / 15
2026-07-28	$4.40	$12,607,931,970	6 / 15
2026-07-29	$4.60	$12,615,188,915	5 / 9
2026-07-30	$4.60	$12,615,188,915	5 / 9
2026-07-31	$4.60	$12,615,188,915	5 / 9
2026-08-01	$4.60	$12,615,188,915	5 / 9
2026-08-02	$4.40	$12,610,857,480	6 / 15
2026-08-03	$4.60	$12,615,188,915	5 / 9
2026-08-04	$4.40	$12,610,857,480	6 / 15
2026-08-05	$4.40	$12,610,857,480	6 / 15
2026-08-06	$4.60	$12,615,188,915	5 / 9
2026-08-08	$4.60	$12,615,188,915	5 / 9
2026-08-09	$4.60	$12,615,188,915	5 / 9
2026-08-10	$4.60	$12,615,188,915	5 / 9
2026-08-12	$4.60	$12,615,188,915	5 / 9
2026-08-13	$4.60	$12,615,188,915	5 / 9
2026-08-14	$4.60	$12,615,188,915	5 / 9
2026-08-15	$4.60	$12,615,188,915	5 / 9
2026-08-16	$4.60	$12,615,188,915	5 / 9
2026-08-17	$4.60	$12,615,188,915	5 / 9
2026-08-18	$4.60	$12,615,188,915	5 / 9
2026-08-19	$4.60	$12,615,188,915	5 / 9
2026-08-20	$4.63	$12,670,789,767	5 / 9
2026-08-21	$4.63	$12,670,789,767	5 / 9
2026-08-22	$4.63	$12,670,789,767	5 / 9
2026-08-23	$4.63	$12,670,789,767	5 / 9
2026-08-24	$4.63	$12,670,789,767	5 / 9
2026-08-25	$4.63	$12,670,789,767	5 / 9
2026-08-26	$4.63	$12,670,789,767	5 / 9
2026-08-27	$4.63	$12,670,789,767	5 / 9
2026-08-28	$4.63	$12,670,789,767	5 / 9
2026-08-29	$4.63	$12,670,789,767	5 / 9
2026-08-30	$4.63	$12,670,789,767	5 / 9
2026-08-31	$4.63	$12,670,789,767	5 / 9
2026-09-01	$4.63	$12,670,789,767	5 / 9
2026-09-02	$4.63	$12,670,789,767	5 / 9
2026-09-03	$4.63	$12,702,038,951	5 / 9
2026-09-04	$4.63	$12,702,038,951	5 / 9
2026-09-05	$4.63	$12,702,038,951	5 / 9
2026-09-06	$4.63	$12,702,038,951	5 / 9
2026-09-07	$4.63	$12,702,038,951	5 / 9
2026-09-08	$4.63	$12,702,038,951	5 / 9
2026-09-09	$4.64	$12,736,679,026	6 / 9
2026-09-10	$4.75	$12,855,311,800	6 / 9
2026-09-11	$4.77	$12,886,913,529	6 / 9
2026-09-12	$4.78	$12,907,127,814	6 / 9
2026-09-13	$4.78	$12,907,127,814	6 / 9
2026-09-14	$4.78	$12,907,127,814	6 / 9
2026-09-15	$4.78	$12,907,127,814	6 / 9
2026-09-16	$4.78	$12,907,127,814	6 / 9
2026-09-17	$4.80	$12,968,106,386	6 / 9
2026-09-18	$4.80	$12,968,106,386	6 / 9
2026-09-19	$4.80	$12,968,106,386	6 / 9
2026-09-20	$4.83	$13,015,294,102	5 / 9
2026-09-21	$4.83	$13,015,294,102	5 / 9
2026-09-22	$4.83	$13,015,294,102	5 / 9
2026-09-23	$4.83	$13,015,294,102	5 / 9
2026-09-24	$4.83	$13,015,294,102	5 / 9
2026-09-25	$4.83	$13,015,294,102	5 / 9
2026-09-26	$4.83	$13,015,294,102	5 / 9
2026-09-27	$4.83	$13,015,294,102	5 / 9
2026-09-28	$4.83	$13,015,294,102	5 / 9
2026-09-29	$4.83	$13,015,294,102	5 / 9
2026-09-30	$4.83	$13,015,294,102	5 / 9
2026-10-01	$4.83	$13,015,579,816	5 / 9
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$13,015,579,816	4 / 9
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$13,015,579,816	4 / 9
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$13,015,579,816	4 / 9
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$13,015,579,816	4 / 9
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$13,015,579,816	4 / 9
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$13,015,579,816	4 / 9
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$13,045,117,319	4 / 9
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$13,044,845,783	4 / 9
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$13,044,845,783	4 / 9
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$13,044,845,783	4 / 9
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$13,044,845,783	4 / 9
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$13,050,775,453	4 / 9
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$13,050,775,453	4 / 9
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$13,050,775,453	4 / 9

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	8	4	3
2026-06-01	8	4	3
2026-07-01	8	4	2
2026-08-01	9	4	2
2026-09-01	10	4	2
2026-10-01	10	3	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

1 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Goldman SachsSep 16

$93.00New observation · no comparable prior

BernsteinSep 16 · prior Jul 21

$96.00 → $97.00+1.0%

$0$53.35$106.70

1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Capital expenditures rise to $2.2-$2.3 billionCapital expenditures: $96M
Free cash flow reaches approximately $2 billionFree cash flow: $744M
Operating income stays strong near $492 million quarterlyOperating income: $691M
Revenue grows at least 8.9% year over yearRevenue growth: 11.21%

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.5%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-23.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Sunbelt Rentals Holdings Inc outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on profitable growth and shareholder returns. The current thesis state is intact, bolstered by strong rental revenue growth and disciplined capital allocation.

What's priced into Sunbelt Rentals Holdings Inc

The market currently prices SUNB as justified, with a low expectations gap compared to peers. Valuation is considered cheap relative to other companies in the same industry.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to remain strong, driven by management's focus on growth and free cash flow generation. Recent financial performance has been strong, but there is a moderate risk due to the high-miss-rate nature of the industry.

What Sunbelt Rentals Holdings Inc hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers and SUNB's ability to maintain guidance. Any cuts in guidance or negative trends from industry leaders could impact sentiment and performance.