Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
STUBHUB HOLDINGS INC (STUB)
NYSECommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-10-15
$5.86+1.74%
Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change
NYSECommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-10-15
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.57 → 0.51 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.
Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ
A valuation that evolves as the business changes.
A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.
View Living FV report and workflowThree key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Gross margin near $10 billion in FY26 | Gross margin is expected near $10 billion in 2026. | Intact | gross margin falls below $9.9 billion in FY26 | Gross margin: 80.04% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: gross margin between $9.9B and $10.1B. Target and observation currencies differ. Source published Aug 13, 202680.036052 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Measurement sourceconsolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 12, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This investment represents a turnaround story with a medium confidence level. The company is working to improve its financial metrics, but recent earnings misses raise concerns about its execution.
The market seems to have priced in a justified valuation, reflecting a low fragility tier. However, there is an expectations gap indicating that investors may be cautious about future performance.
Management is on track to meet its goals for Gross Merchandise Sales and Adjusted EBITDA, showing strong growth and improving margins. However, the near-term risk of missing earnings again is elevated, with a 45% probability of a miss.
The long-term thesis hinges on the company's ability to maintain momentum in sales growth and profitability while managing debt. Additionally, external factors like Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and performance of sector leaders could significantly impact STUB's trajectory.
In the next 1 to 3 years, STUB's performance will depend on its execution and external market conditions. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Successful rollout of festival-focused growth programs | The company is launching new festival programs to drive growth. | Intact | festival programs fail to contribute to growth or are discontinued | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth about 17% in FY26 | A primary condition in STUBHUB HOLDINGS INC's published investment case. The stated target is >=16.7% YoY revenue growth. | Broken | YoY revenue growth falls below 16.7% in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.67 → $0.51 · observed estimates
$2.27B → $2.22B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.67 | $2,269,584,004 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.67 | $2,269,584,004 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.67 | $2,269,814,773 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.67 | $2,269,814,773 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.67 | $2,269,814,773 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.67 | $2,269,814,773 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.67 | $2,269,814,773 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.66 | $2,269,814,773 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.66 | $2,269,814,773 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-02 | Unavailable | $2,268,196,770 | 4 / 13 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.66 | $2,269,814,773 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.66 | $2,269,814,773 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.66 | $2,269,814,773 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.66 | $2,269,814,773 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.66 | $2,269,814,773 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.66 | $2,269,814,773 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.66 | $2,269,814,773 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-12 | Unavailable | $2,276,999,680 | 4 / 13 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.66 | $2,269,814,773 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.66 | $2,269,814,773 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.66 | $2,269,814,773 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.66 | $2,269,814,773 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.66 | $2,269,814,773 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.66 | $2,269,814,773 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.66 | $2,269,814,773 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.58 | $2,230,715,468 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.58 | $2,230,715,468 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.57 | $2,224,122,611 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.57 | $2,224,122,611 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.57 | $2,224,122,611 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.57 | $2,224,122,611 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.57 | $2,224,122,611 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.57 | $2,224,122,611 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.57 | $2,224,122,611 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.57 | $2,224,122,611 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.57 | $2,224,122,611 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.57 | $2,224,122,611 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.57 | $2,224,122,611 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.57 | $2,224,122,611 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.57 | $2,224,122,611 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.57 | $2,224,122,611 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.57 | $2,224,122,611 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.57 | $2,224,122,611 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.57 | $2,224,122,611 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.57 | $2,224,122,611 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.57 | $2,224,122,611 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.57 | $2,224,122,611 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.57 | $2,224,122,611 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.57 | $2,224,122,611 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.57 | $2,224,122,611 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.57 | $2,224,122,611 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.57 | $2,224,122,611 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.57 | $2,224,122,611 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.57 | $2,224,122,611 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.57 | $2,224,122,611 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.57 | $2,229,411,824 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.57 | $2,229,411,824 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.57 | $2,229,411,824 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.57 | $2,229,411,824 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.55 | $2,229,411,824 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.55 | $2,229,411,824 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.55 | $2,229,411,824 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.55 | $2,229,411,824 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.55 | $2,229,411,824 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.55 | $2,229,411,824 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.55 | $2,229,411,824 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.55 | $2,229,411,824 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.55 | $2,229,411,824 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.55 | $2,229,411,824 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.55 | $2,229,411,824 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.55 | $2,229,411,824 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.55 | $2,229,411,824 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.55 | $2,229,411,824 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.55 | $2,229,411,824 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.55 | $2,229,411,824 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.55 | $2,229,411,824 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.53 | $2,226,029,294 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.53 | $2,226,029,294 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.53 | $2,226,029,294 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.51 | $2,223,994,063 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.51 | $2,223,994,063 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.51 | $2,223,994,063 | 5 / 10 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 2 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.