State Street Corporation (STT)

NYSEFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-10-15

$165.72-1.12%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge State Street Corporation’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+1.5%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

15.25 → 15.48 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 11 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Assets under management increase at least 7% per year	Assets under management rose 20%.	Broken	AUM growth falls below 7% next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Control expense growth to under 10% per year	A supporting condition in State Street Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is <=10% YoY expense growth.	Intact	Expense growth exceeds 10% next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Total revenue grows at least 7% per year	A primary condition in State Street Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is >=7% YoY revenue growth.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 7% next year	Revenue growth: 17.4% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=7% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 202617.401392 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 376c8b3e-0518-4c2b-a6fe-db3c7f88c715. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Total revenue grew from $3.3B in 2025-Q1 to $4.0B in 2026-Q3, with fee revenue up 11% year-over-year in 2026-Q3. Investment Management AUM increased from $4.7T in 2025-Q1 to $6.3T in 2026-Q3. Management consistently emphasized growth initiatives and new client wins, and the financials show delivering momentum. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$15.48

$15.16 → $15.48 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$16.83B

$16.61B → $16.83B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$15.16	$16,611,877,032	11 / 8
2026-07-25	$15.25	$16,688,382,610	14 / 10
2026-07-26	$15.16	$16,611,877,032	11 / 8
2026-07-27	$15.16	$16,611,877,032	10 / 8
2026-07-28	$15.16	$16,611,877,032	10 / 8
2026-07-29	$15.16	$16,611,877,032	10 / 8
2026-07-30	$15.16	$16,611,877,032	10 / 8
2026-07-31	$15.25	$16,688,382,610	14 / 10
2026-08-01	$15.16	$16,611,877,032	10 / 8
2026-08-02	$15.25	$16,688,382,610	14 / 10
2026-08-03	$15.25	$16,688,382,610	14 / 10
2026-08-04	$15.16	$16,611,877,032	10 / 8
2026-08-05	$15.30	$16,716,717,150	14 / 10
2026-08-06	$15.16	$16,611,877,032	10 / 8
2026-08-08	$15.16	$16,611,877,032	10 / 8
2026-08-09	$15.30	$16,716,717,150	14 / 10
2026-08-10	$15.16	$16,611,877,032	10 / 8
2026-08-12	$15.16	$16,611,877,032	10 / 8
2026-08-13	$15.16	$16,611,877,032	10 / 8
2026-08-14	$15.16	$16,611,877,032	10 / 8
2026-08-15	$15.16	$16,611,877,032	10 / 8
2026-08-16	$15.16	$16,611,877,032	10 / 8
2026-08-17	$15.16	$16,611,877,032	10 / 8
2026-08-18	$15.16	$16,611,877,032	10 / 8
2026-08-19	$15.16	$16,611,877,032	10 / 8
2026-08-20	$15.24	$16,657,540,465	10 / 8
2026-08-21	$15.24	$16,657,540,465	10 / 8
2026-08-22	$15.24	$16,657,540,465	10 / 8
2026-08-23	$15.24	$16,657,540,465	10 / 8
2026-08-24	$15.24	$16,657,540,465	10 / 8
2026-08-25	$15.24	$16,657,540,465	10 / 8
2026-08-26	$15.24	$16,657,540,465	10 / 8
2026-08-27	$15.24	$16,657,540,465	10 / 8
2026-08-28	$15.24	$16,657,540,465	10 / 8
2026-08-29	$15.24	$16,657,540,465	10 / 8
2026-08-30	$15.24	$16,657,540,465	10 / 8
2026-08-31	$15.24	$16,657,540,465	10 / 8
2026-09-01	$15.24	$16,657,540,465	10 / 8
2026-09-02	$15.24	$16,657,540,465	10 / 8
2026-09-03	$15.24	$16,657,540,465	10 / 8
2026-09-04	$15.24	$16,657,540,465	10 / 8
2026-09-05	$15.24	$16,657,540,465	10 / 8
2026-09-06	$15.24	$16,657,540,465	10 / 8
2026-09-07	$15.24	$16,657,540,465	10 / 8
2026-09-08	$15.24	$16,657,540,465	10 / 8
2026-09-09	$15.25	$16,661,208,949	10 / 8
2026-09-10	$15.25	$16,661,208,949	10 / 8
2026-09-11	$15.25	$16,661,208,949	10 / 8
2026-09-12	$15.25	$16,661,208,949	10 / 8
2026-09-13	$15.25	$16,661,208,949	10 / 8
2026-09-14	$15.25	$16,661,208,949	10 / 8
2026-09-15	$15.25	$16,661,208,949	10 / 8
2026-09-16	$15.25	$16,661,208,949	10 / 8
2026-09-17	$15.25	$16,661,208,949	10 / 8
2026-09-18	$15.25	$16,661,208,949	10 / 8
2026-09-19	$15.25	$16,661,208,949	10 / 8
2026-09-20	$15.25	$16,661,208,949	10 / 8
2026-09-21	$15.25	$16,661,208,949	10 / 8
2026-09-22	$15.25	$16,661,208,949	10 / 8
2026-09-23	$15.25	$16,661,208,949	10 / 8
2026-09-24	$15.25	$16,661,208,949	10 / 8
2026-09-25	$15.25	$16,661,208,949	10 / 8
2026-09-26	$15.25	$16,669,708,949	10 / 8
2026-09-27	$15.26	$16,669,317,577	10 / 8
2026-09-28	$15.26	$16,669,317,577	10 / 8
2026-09-29	$15.26	$16,669,317,577	10 / 8
2026-09-30	$15.26	$16,669,317,577	10 / 8
2026-10-01	$15.30	$16,684,895,470	10 / 8
2026-10-02	$15.30	$16,684,895,470	10 / 8
2026-10-03	$15.33	$16,697,645,470	10 / 8
2026-10-04	$15.36	$16,723,372,365	10 / 8
2026-10-05	$15.42	$16,794,889,963	10 / 8
2026-10-06	$15.42	$16,794,889,963	10 / 8
2026-10-07	$15.42	$16,811,102,241	11 / 8
2026-10-08	$15.46	$16,812,940,530	11 / 9
2026-10-09	$15.46	$16,812,940,530	11 / 8
2026-10-10	$15.46	$16,812,940,530	11 / 8
2026-10-11	$15.46	$16,812,940,530	11 / 8
2026-10-12	$15.46	$16,812,940,530	11 / 8
2026-10-13	$15.46	$16,812,940,530	11 / 8
2026-10-14	$15.46	$16,812,940,530	11 / 8
2026-10-15	$15.48	$16,826,546,102	11 / 8

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	9	6	1
2026-06-01	9	6	2
2026-07-01	9	6	2
2026-08-01	9	6	1
2026-09-01	9	6	1
2026-10-01	10	7	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades8 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 8 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Truist FinancialOct 15 · prior Oct 6

$190.00 → $171.00-10.0%

RBC CapitalOct 15 · prior Apr 20

$155.00 → $175.00+12.9%

Capital One FinancialOct 6

$200.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$110.00$220.00

1 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Assets under management increase at least 7% per yearPublished status: Broken
Control expense growth to under 10% per yearDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Total revenue grows at least 7% per yearRevenue growth: 17.4%

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-14.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

State Street Corporation outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on revenue growth and asset management. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance despite some volatility in management execution.

What's priced into State Street Corporation

The market appears to have priced in a neutral valuation, with expectations slightly below current performance. The stock is seen as justified in its valuation, reflecting a low fragility tier despite some execution concerns.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to remain stable, with management focused on increasing total revenue and assets under management (AUM). Recent results show strong growth in both areas, although there is a low probability of missing future earnings expectations.

What State Street Corporation hinges on

The thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain revenue growth and AUM expansion while navigating sector headwinds. Key forward scenarios include the impact of potential guidance cuts and interest rate changes, as well as the performance of sector peers.