Sprout Social, Inc. (SPT)

NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-10-23

$12.86-1.91%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Sprout Social, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

0.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

1.57 → 1.57 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q3
Revenue	$123.3M–$124.1M	—
Operating income	$17.5M–$18.3Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	125.35M
EPS	—	0.346
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$493M–$495.6M	494.5M
EPS	—	1.127
Operating income	$54.9M–$60.4Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	523.14M
EPS	—	1.57

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Improve non-GAAP operating income toward positive $54.9M to $60.4M in 2026	Profit losses are shrinking, with operating income improving by $7.8 million since 2024-Q4.	Intact	non-GAAP operating income remains negative or below $54.9 million in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve total revenue between $492.5M and $495.5M in 2026	A primary condition in Sprout Social, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $492.5 million total revenue.	Intact	total revenue falls below $492.5 million in FY26	Revenue: $123.847M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $492.5 million total revenue. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 2026123,847,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 2952d52f-bf99-4844-9136-52c320754ca2. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Implement share repurchase program up to $50 million	The company started a $50 million share buyback, showing confidence.	Intact	No meaningful share repurchases executed by end of 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Newly stated in 2026-Q1. The company announced a board-authorized share repurchase program of up to $50 million on May 7, 2026. There is no subsequent disclosure of repurchase activity in later quarters, so delivery status is pending. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$1.57

$1.19 → $1.57 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.52B

$0.53B → $0.52B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$1.19	$530,934,681	6 / 7
2026-07-25	$1.19	$530,934,681	6 / 7
2026-07-26	$1.19	$530,934,680	10 / 9
2026-07-27	$1.19	$530,934,681	6 / 7
2026-07-28	$1.19	$530,934,680	10 / 9
2026-07-29	$1.19	$530,934,681	6 / 7
2026-07-30	$1.19	$530,934,680	10 / 9
2026-07-31	$1.19	$530,934,680	10 / 9
2026-08-01	$1.19	$530,934,681	6 / 7
2026-08-02	$1.19	$530,934,680	10 / 9
2026-08-03	$1.19	$530,934,680	10 / 9
2026-08-04	$1.19	$530,934,680	10 / 9
2026-08-05	$1.19	$530,934,681	6 / 7
2026-08-06	$1.19	$530,934,681	6 / 7
2026-08-08	$1.24	$526,485,240	9 / 9
2026-08-09	$1.19	$530,931,830	6 / 7
2026-08-10	$1.19	$530,931,830	6 / 7
2026-08-12	$1.19	$530,931,830	6 / 7
2026-08-13	$1.49	$524,841,350	10 / 9
2026-08-14	$1.19	$530,931,830	6 / 7
2026-08-15	$1.19	$530,931,830	6 / 7
2026-08-16	$1.19	$530,931,830	6 / 7
2026-08-17	$1.19	$530,931,830	6 / 7
2026-08-18	$1.19	$530,931,830	6 / 7
2026-08-19	$1.19	$530,931,830	6 / 7
2026-08-20	$1.57	$523,136,151	6 / 7
2026-08-21	$1.57	$523,136,151	6 / 7
2026-08-22	$1.57	$523,136,151	6 / 7
2026-08-23	$1.57	$523,136,151	6 / 7
2026-08-24	$1.57	$523,136,151	6 / 7
2026-08-25	$1.57	$523,136,151	6 / 7
2026-08-26	$1.57	$523,136,151	6 / 7
2026-08-27	$1.57	$523,136,151	6 / 7
2026-08-28	$1.57	$523,136,151	6 / 7
2026-08-29	$1.57	$523,136,151	6 / 7
2026-08-30	$1.57	$523,136,151	6 / 7
2026-08-31	$1.57	$523,136,151	6 / 7
2026-09-01	$1.57	$523,136,151	6 / 7
2026-09-02	$1.57	$523,136,151	6 / 7
2026-09-03	$1.57	$523,136,151	6 / 7
2026-09-04	$1.57	$523,136,151	6 / 7
2026-09-05	$1.57	$523,136,151	6 / 7
2026-09-06	$1.57	$523,136,151	6 / 7
2026-09-07	$1.57	$523,136,151	6 / 7
2026-09-08	$1.57	$523,136,151	6 / 7
2026-09-09	$1.57	$523,136,151	6 / 7
2026-09-10	$1.57	$523,136,151	6 / 7
2026-09-11	$1.57	$523,136,151	6 / 7
2026-09-12	$1.57	$523,136,151	6 / 7
2026-09-13	$1.57	$523,136,151	6 / 7
2026-09-14	$1.57	$523,136,151	6 / 7
2026-09-15	$1.57	$523,136,151	6 / 7
2026-09-16	$1.57	$523,136,151	6 / 7
2026-09-17	$1.57	$523,136,151	6 / 7
2026-09-18	$1.57	$523,136,151	6 / 7
2026-09-19	$1.57	$523,136,151	6 / 7
2026-09-20	$1.57	$523,136,151	6 / 7
2026-09-21	$1.57	$523,136,151	6 / 7
2026-09-22	$1.57	$523,136,151	6 / 7
2026-09-23	$1.57	$523,136,151	6 / 7
2026-09-24	$1.57	$523,136,151	6 / 7
2026-09-25	$1.57	$523,136,151	6 / 7
2026-09-26	$1.57	$523,136,151	6 / 7
2026-09-27	$1.57	$523,136,151	6 / 7
2026-09-28	$1.57	$523,136,151	6 / 7
2026-09-29	$1.57	$523,136,151	6 / 7
2026-09-30	$1.57	$523,136,151	6 / 7
2026-10-01	$1.57	$523,136,151	6 / 7
2026-10-02	$1.57	$523,136,151	6 / 7
2026-10-03	$1.57	$523,136,151	6 / 7
2026-10-04	$1.57	$523,136,151	6 / 7
2026-10-05	$1.57	$523,136,151	6 / 7
2026-10-06	$1.57	$523,136,151	6 / 7
2026-10-07	$1.57	$523,136,151	6 / 7
2026-10-08	$1.57	$523,136,151	6 / 7
2026-10-09	$1.57	$523,136,151	6 / 7
2026-10-10	$1.57	$523,136,151	6 / 7
2026-10-11	$1.57	$523,136,151	6 / 7
2026-10-12	$1.57	$523,136,151	6 / 7
2026-10-13	$1.57	$523,136,151	6 / 7
2026-10-14	$1.57	$523,136,151	6 / 7
2026-10-15	$1.57	$523,136,151	6 / 7
2026-10-16	$1.57	$523,136,151	6 / 7
2026-10-17	$1.57	$523,136,151	6 / 7
2026-10-18	$1.57	$523,136,151	6 / 7
2026-10-19	$1.57	$523,136,151	6 / 7
2026-10-20	$1.57	$523,136,151	6 / 7
2026-10-21	$1.57	$523,136,151	6 / 7
2026-10-22	$1.57	$523,136,151	6 / 7
2026-10-23	$1.57	$523,136,151	6 / 7
2026-10-24	$1.57	$523,136,151	6 / 7

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	4	6	1
2026-06-01	4	6	1
2026-07-01	4	5	1
2026-08-01	4	5	1
2026-09-01	4	5	1
2026-10-01	4	5	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Stifel NicolausOct 14

$14.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$7.70$15.40

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Improve non-GAAP operating income toward positive $54.9M to $60.4M in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Achieve total revenue between $492.5M and $495.5M in 2026Revenue: $123.847M
Implement share repurchase program up to $50 millionDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-57.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Sprout Social, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a higher-risk growth and profitability-improvement story, not a proven durable compounder, and the long-term thesis remains on watch. Management is making progress on revenue and non-GAAP operating income, but the evidence snapshot also shows the company is loss-making and its quality score has fallen.

What's priced into Sprout Social, Inc.

SPT is marked cheap versus peers, but the valuation model has low confidence and the expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations may still be demanding relative to the setup. The priced-in assessment calls expectations justified, with low fragility, so the evidence does not point to extreme market sensitivity from positioning alone.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue grew year over year in Q2 2026, high-value customer count increased, and non-GAAP operating income rose above guidance. A recent workforce reduction and the decline in company quality temper that progress; the snapshot also notes that performance remains below the industry cohort. The stated risk of a guidance cut remains important, despite a low near-term miss probability.

What Sprout Social, Inc. hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on continued revenue growth and whether improving operating income translates into stronger overall business quality. A guidance cut would weaken the setup, while easing rates or continued strong results from large technology peers could support sector conditions. The company’s disclosure of activity under its repurchase program is still pending.