S&P Global (SPGI)

NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Data & Stock ExchangesSnapshot 2026-10-15

$429.64+1.14%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge S&P Global’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.2%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

20.25 → 20.21 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 14 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 14 to 14; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Achieve adjusted EPS near $19.4 to $19.65 in 2026	Profit per share is rising steadily, with adjusted EPS expected near $19.5 in 2026.	Broken	adjusted EPS falls below $19.4 in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Adjusted diluted EPS grew from $17.83 in 2025 to guidance of $19.40 to $19.65 for 2026. GAAP diluted EPS guidance is $16.35 to $16.60. The trajectory is delivering growth consistent with management's stated EPS guidance. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Maintain capital expenditures between $215M and $225M in 2026	A supporting condition in S&P Global's published investment case. The stated target is CAPEX between $215M and $225M.	Broken	CAPEX exceeds $225M or falls below $215M significantly in FY26	Capital expenditures: $38M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: CAPEX between $215M and $225M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 28, 202638,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Complete Mobility division spin-off by mid-2026	The company is completing its spin-off of the Mobility division, which simplifies operations and sharpens focus.	Intact	Mobility division spin-off delayed beyond mid-2026	Spin-off completed 2026-07-01 vs mid-2026 target S&P Global completed the Mobility Global spin-off on July 1, 2026, distributing shares to stockholders. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Management announced the intent to separate the Mobility division in 2025-Q1, with the spin-off completed July 1, 2026 (2026-Q2). The separation is expected within 12-18 months from announcement. The company has delivered on this priority with the spin-off executed on schedule, matching management's stated timeline. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Sustain revenue growth at or above 6.3% in 2026	A primary condition in S&P Global's published investment case. The stated target is >=6.3% YoY revenue growth.	Improving	YoY revenue growth falls below 6.3% in FY26	Revenue growth: 10.41% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=6.3% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 28, 202610.412783 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: a97b9460-a042-487e-875e-6b2d1010a97e. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Revenue grew from $3.777B in 2025-Q1 to $4.171B in 2026-Q1, a 10% increase year over year. The 2026 guidance calls for reported revenue growth of 6.3% to 8.3%. The trajectory shows delivering growth consistent with management's stated guidance. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$20.21

$20.30 → $20.21 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$15.64B

$15.74B → $15.64B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$20.30	$15,744,287,040	20 / 19
2026-07-25	$20.30	$15,744,287,040	20 / 19
2026-07-26	$20.30	$15,744,287,040	20 / 19
2026-07-27	$20.30	$15,744,287,040	20 / 19
2026-07-28	$20.49	$15,744,567,989	13 / 15
2026-07-29	$20.31	$15,745,622,690	21 / 20
2026-07-30	$20.31	$15,745,622,690	21 / 20
2026-07-31	$20.23	$15,656,487,240	22 / 20
2026-08-01	$20.39	$15,664,832,023	13 / 16
2026-08-02	$20.22	$15,653,890,020	22 / 20
2026-08-03	$20.39	$15,664,832,023	13 / 16
2026-08-04	$20.39	$15,664,832,023	13 / 16
2026-08-05	$20.22	$15,641,625,020	22 / 20
2026-08-06	$20.39	$15,664,832,023	13 / 16
2026-08-08	$20.22	$15,641,621,170	22 / 20
2026-08-09	$20.22	$15,641,621,170	22 / 20
2026-08-10	$20.38	$15,650,691,811	13 / 16
2026-08-12	$20.24	$15,641,621,170	23 / 20
2026-08-13	$20.38	$15,650,691,811	13 / 16
2026-08-14	$20.38	$15,650,691,811	13 / 16
2026-08-15	$20.38	$15,650,691,811	13 / 16
2026-08-16	$20.38	$15,650,691,811	14 / 16
2026-08-17	$20.38	$15,650,691,811	14 / 16
2026-08-18	$20.38	$15,650,691,811	14 / 16
2026-08-19	$20.38	$15,650,691,811	14 / 16
2026-08-20	$20.37	$15,650,711,230	14 / 16
2026-08-21	$20.37	$15,650,711,230	14 / 16
2026-08-22	$20.28	$15,650,711,230	14 / 16
2026-08-23	$20.28	$15,650,711,230	14 / 16
2026-08-24	$20.28	$15,650,711,230	14 / 16
2026-08-25	$20.28	$15,647,620,754	14 / 16
2026-08-26	$20.28	$15,647,620,754	14 / 16
2026-08-27	$20.28	$15,647,620,754	14 / 16
2026-08-28	$20.28	$15,647,620,754	14 / 16
2026-08-29	$20.28	$15,647,620,754	14 / 16
2026-08-30	$20.28	$15,647,620,754	14 / 16
2026-08-31	$20.28	$15,647,620,754	14 / 16
2026-09-01	$20.28	$15,647,620,754	14 / 16
2026-09-02	$20.28	$15,647,620,754	14 / 16
2026-09-03	$20.28	$15,644,815,621	14 / 15
2026-09-04	$20.28	$15,644,815,621	14 / 15
2026-09-05	$20.28	$15,644,815,621	14 / 15
2026-09-06	$20.28	$15,644,815,621	14 / 15
2026-09-07	$20.28	$15,644,815,621	14 / 15
2026-09-08	$20.28	$15,644,815,621	14 / 15
2026-09-09	$20.28	$15,644,815,621	14 / 15
2026-09-10	$20.25	$15,644,815,621	14 / 15
2026-09-11	$20.25	$15,644,815,621	14 / 15
2026-09-12	$20.25	$15,645,863,240	14 / 15
2026-09-13	$20.25	$15,645,863,240	14 / 15
2026-09-14	$20.25	$15,645,863,240	14 / 15
2026-09-15	$20.25	$15,645,863,240	14 / 15
2026-09-16	$20.25	$15,645,863,240	14 / 15
2026-09-17	$20.25	$15,645,863,240	14 / 15
2026-09-18	$20.25	$15,645,863,240	14 / 15
2026-09-19	$20.25	$15,645,863,240	14 / 15
2026-09-20	$20.25	$15,645,863,240	14 / 15
2026-09-21	$20.25	$15,645,863,240	14 / 15
2026-09-22	$20.25	$15,645,863,240	14 / 15
2026-09-23	$20.25	$15,645,863,240	14 / 15
2026-09-24	$20.25	$15,645,863,240	14 / 15
2026-09-25	$20.25	$15,645,863,240	14 / 15
2026-09-26	$20.25	$15,645,863,240	14 / 15
2026-09-27	$20.25	$15,645,863,240	14 / 15
2026-09-28	$20.25	$15,645,863,240	14 / 15
2026-09-29	$20.25	$15,645,863,240	14 / 15
2026-09-30	$20.25	$15,645,845,382	14 / 15
2026-10-01	$20.25	$15,645,845,382	14 / 15
2026-10-02	$20.25	$15,645,845,382	14 / 15
2026-10-03	$20.25	$15,645,845,382	14 / 15
2026-10-04	$20.25	$15,645,845,382	14 / 15
2026-10-05	$20.25	$15,645,845,382	14 / 15
2026-10-06	$20.23	$15,646,625,138	14 / 15
2026-10-07	$20.23	$15,645,546,662	14 / 16
2026-10-08	$20.22	$15,640,821,133	14 / 16
2026-10-09	$20.22	$15,644,378,250	14 / 16
2026-10-10	$20.22	$15,644,378,250	14 / 16
2026-10-11	$20.22	$15,645,150,977	14 / 16
2026-10-12	$20.22	$15,645,150,977	14 / 16
2026-10-13	$20.22	$15,645,819,523	14 / 16
2026-10-14	$20.22	$15,645,801,345	14 / 16
2026-10-15	$20.21	$15,637,035,206	14 / 16

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	23	1
2026-06-01	23	1
2026-07-01	24	1
2026-08-01	23	1
2026-09-01	23	1
2026-10-01	23	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 23 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades4 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 4 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Morgan StanleyOct 7

$477.00New observation · no comparable prior

Mizuho SecuritiesOct 5

$531.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$292.05$584.10

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Achieve adjusted EPS near $19.4 to $19.65 in 2026Published status: Broken
Maintain capital expenditures between $215M and $225M in 2026Published status: Broken
Sustain revenue growth at or above 6.3% in 2026Revenue growth: 10.41%

Next proof point

Oct 27, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-31.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

S&P Global outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

SPGI represents a durable compounder with a focus on steady revenue growth and earnings performance. The current thesis state is intact, supported by recent positive earnings and strategic management priorities, although there are notable risks ahead.

What's priced into S&P Global

The market currently prices SPGI at a premium compared to its peers, reflecting high expectations for its performance. However, this premium may not be fully justified given the recent mixed execution quality and the potential for downward revisions in guidance.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track to meet its revenue growth and earnings per share targets for 2026, despite a moderate risk profile. Recent financial performance has been neutral, and while there is a low probability of missing estimates, the company has a history of misses that could impact investor confidence.

What S&P Global hinges on

The future performance of SPGI hinges on several factors, including management's ability to maintain guidance, the performance of sector peers, and external economic conditions such as interest rate changes. Any cuts to guidance or unfavorable movements in the financial sector could negatively impact the stock.