Solventum (SOLV)

NYSEHealth CareMedical - Instruments & SuppliesSnapshot 2026-10-15

$85.81-2.33%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Solventum’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.5%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

7.30 → 7.33 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 9 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Adjusted EPS of $6.40 to $6.60 for 2026	Adjusted EPS is guided between $6.40 and $6.60, showing solid profit growth.	Intact	adjusted EPS falls below $6.40 in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 5 of last 5 quarters. Adjusted EPS guidance increased from $5.98-$6.08 in 2025-Q3 to $6.40-$6.60 in 2025-Q4 and reaffirmed for 2026. The trajectory shows management maintaining or raising EPS guidance consistent with prior statements. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Free cash flow of approximately $200 million in 2026	The company targets about $200 million in free cash flow for 2026.	Under Pressure	free cash flow remains negative or below $100 million in FY26	Free cash flow: $144M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $200 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 2026144,000,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 5 of last 5 quarters. Free cash flow guidance for 2026 was initially ~$200M and increased to $200M-$300M in 2026-Q2. However, free cash flow was negative $(273) million in 2026-Q1 due to separation activities, indicating limited progress so far this year. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Organic sales growth of 2.0% to 3.0% in 2026	A primary condition in Solventum's published investment case. The stated target is 2.0% to 3.0% YoY.	Intact	organic sales growth falls below 2.0% in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 5 of last 5 quarters. Organic sales growth was +2.1% in 2026-Q1 and management reaffirmed guidance of +2.0% to +3.0% for 2026 in multiple quarters. The trajectory is delivering consistent growth aligned with the stated target. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$7.33

$7.10 → $7.33 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$8.53B

$8.48B → $8.53B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$7.10	$8,478,814,450	10 / 10
2026-07-25	$7.09	$8,482,654,790	15 / 12
2026-07-26	$7.09	$8,482,654,790	15 / 12
2026-07-27	$7.10	$8,478,814,450	10 / 10
2026-07-28	$7.10	$8,478,814,450	10 / 10
2026-07-29	$7.09	$8,484,518,520	15 / 12
2026-07-30	$7.11	$8,480,534,823	9 / 10
2026-07-31	$7.11	$8,480,534,823	9 / 10
2026-08-01	$7.11	$8,480,534,823	9 / 10
2026-08-02	$7.11	$8,480,534,823	9 / 10
2026-08-03	$7.11	$8,480,534,823	10 / 10
2026-08-04	$7.09	$8,479,347,870	15 / 13
2026-08-05	$7.11	$8,480,534,823	10 / 10
2026-08-06	$7.11	$8,480,534,823	10 / 10
2026-08-08	$7.27	$8,508,684,099	10 / 10
2026-08-09	$7.19	$8,504,904,560	15 / 12
2026-08-10	$7.27	$8,508,684,099	10 / 10
2026-08-12	$7.27	$8,508,684,099	10 / 10
2026-08-13	$7.27	$8,508,684,099	10 / 10
2026-08-14	$7.27	$8,508,684,099	10 / 10
2026-08-15	$7.27	$8,508,684,099	10 / 10
2026-08-16	$7.27	$8,508,684,099	10 / 10
2026-08-17	$7.27	$8,508,684,099	10 / 10
2026-08-18	$7.27	$8,508,684,099	10 / 10
2026-08-19	$7.27	$8,508,684,099	10 / 10
2026-08-20	$7.29	$8,523,845,568	10 / 10
2026-08-21	$7.30	$8,525,055,375	10 / 10
2026-08-22	$7.30	$8,525,055,375	10 / 10
2026-08-23	$7.30	$8,525,055,375	10 / 10
2026-08-24	$7.30	$8,525,055,375	10 / 10
2026-08-25	$7.30	$8,525,055,375	10 / 10
2026-08-26	$7.30	$8,525,055,275	10 / 10
2026-08-27	$7.30	$8,525,055,275	10 / 10
2026-08-28	$7.30	$8,525,055,275	10 / 10
2026-08-29	$7.30	$8,525,055,275	10 / 10
2026-08-30	$7.30	$8,525,055,275	10 / 10
2026-08-31	$7.30	$8,525,055,275	10 / 10
2026-09-01	$7.30	$8,525,055,275	10 / 10
2026-09-02	$7.30	$8,525,055,275	10 / 10
2026-09-03	$7.30	$8,525,055,275	10 / 10
2026-09-04	$7.30	$8,525,055,275	10 / 10
2026-09-05	$7.30	$8,525,055,275	10 / 10
2026-09-06	$7.30	$8,525,055,275	10 / 10
2026-09-07	$7.30	$8,525,055,275	10 / 10
2026-09-08	$7.30	$8,525,055,275	10 / 10
2026-09-09	$7.30	$8,525,055,275	9 / 10
2026-09-10	$7.30	$8,525,305,275	9 / 10
2026-09-11	$7.30	$8,525,305,275	9 / 10
2026-09-12	$7.30	$8,525,305,275	9 / 10
2026-09-13	$7.30	$8,525,305,275	9 / 10
2026-09-14	$7.30	$8,525,305,275	9 / 10
2026-09-15	$7.30	$8,525,307,774	9 / 10
2026-09-16	$7.31	$8,527,891,108	9 / 10
2026-09-17	$7.31	$8,527,891,108	9 / 10
2026-09-18	$7.31	$8,527,891,108	9 / 10
2026-09-19	$7.31	$8,527,891,108	9 / 10
2026-09-20	$7.30	$8,534,057,774	9 / 10
2026-09-21	$7.30	$8,534,057,774	9 / 10
2026-09-22	$7.30	$8,534,057,774	9 / 10
2026-09-23	$7.31	$8,532,153,936	10 / 10
2026-09-24	$7.31	$8,532,153,936	10 / 10
2026-09-25	$7.30	$8,534,057,774	10 / 10
2026-09-26	$7.30	$8,534,057,774	10 / 10
2026-09-27	$7.30	$8,534,057,774	10 / 10
2026-09-28	$7.30	$8,534,057,774	10 / 10
2026-09-29	$7.30	$8,534,057,774	10 / 10
2026-09-30	$7.30	$8,534,057,774	10 / 10
2026-10-01	$7.31	$8,532,153,936	10 / 10
2026-10-02	$7.31	$8,532,153,936	10 / 10
2026-10-03	$7.31	$8,532,153,936	10 / 10
2026-10-04	$7.31	$8,532,153,936	10 / 10
2026-10-05	$7.31	$8,532,153,936	10 / 10
2026-10-06	$7.31	$8,532,153,936	10 / 10
2026-10-07	$7.31	$8,532,153,936	10 / 10
2026-10-08	$7.31	$8,532,153,936	10 / 10
2026-10-09	$7.31	$8,532,153,936	10 / 10
2026-10-10	$7.31	$8,532,153,936	10 / 10
2026-10-11	$7.31	$8,532,153,936	10 / 10
2026-10-12	$7.34	$8,534,633,433	10 / 10
2026-10-13	$7.33	$8,531,251,614	10 / 10
2026-10-14	$7.33	$8,531,251,614	9 / 10
2026-10-15	$7.33	$8,531,251,614	9 / 10

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	7	6	2
2026-06-01	7	6	3
2026-07-01	8	6	3
2026-08-01	8	5	2
2026-09-01	8	5	2
2026-10-01	8	5	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Adjusted EPS of $6.40 to $6.60 for 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Free cash flow of approximately $200 million in 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Organic sales growth of 2.0% to 3.0% in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-27.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Solventum outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on the MedTech sector. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance, although management has mixed priorities that could influence future growth.

What's priced into Solventum

The market currently prices SOLV as cheap compared to its peers, with an expectations gap indicating that it is slightly undervalued. There is low fragility in the current regime, suggesting that the stock's valuation is justified given its recent performance.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to remain stable, with management maintaining adjusted EPS guidance and aiming for organic sales growth. However, there is a moderate risk due to the potential for earnings surprises trending down, which could impact confidence.

What Solventum hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to execute their strategic priorities, particularly the separation of the Health Information Systems business. Additionally, the performance of sector bellwethers and overall economic conditions will be crucial in shaping future outcomes.