Southern Company (SO)

NYSEUtilitiesRegulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-10-15

$91.18+2.24%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Southern Company’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

4.93 → 4.93 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 13 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 13 to 13; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain capital allocation flexibility with equity agreements	Profit margins remain stable and capital allocation improves with new equity agreements.	Intact	Loss of equity distribution agreements or capital constraints	16 banks vs multiple target SO forged an equity distribution agreement with 16 banks, reinforcing capital allocation flexibility and meeting the thesis target. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain EPS growth trajectory near $4.30 in FY25	Southern Company grows earnings steadily with EPS near $4.30 in 2025.	Intact	EPS falls below $4.30 in FY2025	Diluted EPS: $1.03 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $4.30 EPS in FY2025. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 20261.03 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 1e04570d-9850-445a-9515-e954ce550124. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. EPS grew from $1.23 in 2025-Q1 to $1.32 in 2026-Q1 and full-year EPS excluding items increased from $4.05 in 2024 to $4.30 in 2025. Management's focus on EPS growth is reflected in these improving earnings metrics, indicating delivery on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Keep profit margins stable near current levels	Profit margins remain stable and capital allocation improves with new equity agreements.	Improving	Profit margins decline significantly below recent levels	Operating margin: 25.46% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Maintain profit margins near current levels. Target percentage unit is not explicit. Source published Jul 30, 202625.455067 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 1e04570d-9850-445a-9515-e954ce550124. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Sustain revenue growth near 6% annually	A primary condition in Southern Company's published investment case. The stated target is >= 6% YoY revenue growth.	Broken	Revenue growth falls below 6% YoY next year	Revenue growth: 0.06% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= 6% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 20260.057364 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 1e04570d-9850-445a-9515-e954ce550124. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. EPS grew from $1.23 in 2025-Q1 to $1.32 in 2026-Q1 and full-year EPS excluding items increased from $4.05 in 2024 to $4.30 in 2025. Management's focus on EPS growth is reflected in these improving earnings metrics, indicating delivery on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$4.93

$4.92 → $4.93 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$32.40B

$32.44B → $32.40B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$4.92	$32,442,242,282	14 / 14
2026-07-25	$4.92	$32,769,083,110	22 / 17
2026-07-26	$4.92	$32,769,083,110	22 / 17
2026-07-27	$4.93	$32,422,141,935	14 / 14
2026-07-28	$4.93	$32,422,141,935	14 / 14
2026-07-29	$4.92	$32,807,463,310	23 / 16
2026-07-30	$4.92	$32,807,463,310	23 / 16
2026-07-31	$4.92	$32,807,463,310	23 / 16
2026-08-01	$4.92	$32,418,588,306	14 / 13
2026-08-02	$4.92	$32,807,463,310	23 / 16
2026-08-03	$4.92	$32,742,932,060	22 / 16
2026-08-04	$4.92	$32,379,807,056	14 / 13
2026-08-05	$4.92	$32,379,807,056	14 / 13
2026-08-06	$4.92	$32,379,807,056	14 / 13
2026-08-08	$4.92	$32,799,165,289	23 / 17
2026-08-09	$4.92	$32,799,165,289	23 / 17
2026-08-10	$4.92	$32,379,807,056	14 / 13
2026-08-12	$4.92	$32,379,807,056	14 / 13
2026-08-13	$4.92	$32,799,165,289	23 / 17
2026-08-14	$4.92	$32,379,807,056	14 / 13
2026-08-15	$4.92	$32,379,807,056	14 / 13
2026-08-16	$4.92	$32,379,807,056	14 / 13
2026-08-17	$4.92	$32,379,807,056	14 / 13
2026-08-18	$4.92	$32,379,807,056	14 / 13
2026-08-19	$4.92	$32,379,807,056	14 / 13
2026-08-20	$4.93	$32,461,264,260	14 / 13
2026-08-21	$4.93	$32,461,264,260	14 / 13
2026-08-22	$4.93	$32,446,094,849	14 / 13
2026-08-23	$4.93	$32,446,094,849	14 / 13
2026-08-24	$4.93	$32,446,094,849	14 / 13
2026-08-25	$4.93	$32,446,094,849	14 / 13
2026-08-26	$4.93	$32,446,094,849	14 / 13
2026-08-27	$4.93	$32,446,094,849	14 / 13
2026-08-28	$4.93	$32,446,094,849	14 / 13
2026-08-29	$4.93	$32,446,094,849	14 / 13
2026-08-30	$4.93	$32,446,094,849	14 / 13
2026-08-31	$4.93	$32,446,094,849	14 / 13
2026-09-01	$4.93	$32,446,094,849	14 / 13
2026-09-02	$4.93	$32,446,094,849	13 / 13
2026-09-03	$4.93	$32,449,694,849	13 / 13
2026-09-04	$4.93	$32,449,694,849	13 / 13
2026-09-05	$4.93	$32,449,694,849	13 / 13
2026-09-06	$4.93	$32,449,694,849	13 / 13
2026-09-07	$4.93	$32,449,694,849	13 / 13
2026-09-08	$4.93	$32,449,694,849	13 / 13
2026-09-09	$4.93	$32,449,694,849	13 / 13
2026-09-10	$4.93	$32,449,494,849	13 / 13
2026-09-11	$4.93	$32,449,494,849	13 / 13
2026-09-12	$4.93	$32,449,494,847	13 / 13
2026-09-13	$4.93	$32,449,494,847	13 / 13
2026-09-14	$4.93	$32,449,494,847	13 / 13
2026-09-15	$4.93	$32,449,494,847	13 / 13
2026-09-16	$4.93	$32,449,494,849	14 / 13
2026-09-17	$4.93	$32,449,494,849	14 / 13
2026-09-18	$4.93	$32,449,494,849	14 / 13
2026-09-19	$4.93	$32,449,494,849	14 / 13
2026-09-20	$4.93	$32,449,494,849	13 / 13
2026-09-21	$4.93	$32,449,494,849	13 / 13
2026-09-22	$4.93	$32,449,494,849	13 / 13
2026-09-23	$4.93	$32,449,494,849	13 / 13
2026-09-24	$4.93	$32,449,494,849	13 / 13
2026-09-25	$4.93	$32,449,494,847	13 / 13
2026-09-26	$4.93	$32,379,172,680	13 / 13
2026-09-27	$4.93	$32,379,172,680	13 / 13
2026-09-28	$4.93	$32,379,172,680	13 / 13
2026-09-29	$4.93	$32,379,172,680	13 / 13
2026-09-30	$4.93	$32,379,172,680	13 / 13
2026-10-01	$4.93	$32,379,172,680	13 / 13
2026-10-02	$4.93	$32,379,183,699	13 / 13
2026-10-03	$4.93	$32,379,183,699	13 / 13
2026-10-04	$4.93	$32,379,183,699	13 / 13
2026-10-05	$4.93	$32,379,183,699	13 / 13
2026-10-06	$4.93	$32,379,183,699	13 / 13
2026-10-07	$4.93	$32,379,183,699	13 / 13
2026-10-08	$4.93	$32,379,183,699	13 / 13
2026-10-09	$4.93	$32,379,172,680	13 / 13
2026-10-10	$4.93	$32,379,172,680	13 / 13
2026-10-11	$4.93	$32,379,172,680	13 / 13
2026-10-12	$4.93	$32,379,172,680	13 / 13
2026-10-13	$4.93	$32,391,367,803	13 / 13
2026-10-14	$4.93	$32,395,883,371	13 / 13
2026-10-15	$4.93	$32,395,445,871	13 / 13

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	7	15	2
2026-06-01	7	15	2
2026-07-01	7	15	3
2026-08-01	7	14	3
2026-09-01	7	14	3
2026-10-01	7	14	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 14 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades4 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 4 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Truist FinancialOct 15 · prior Aug 13

$97.00 → $93.00-4.1%

KeyBancOct 13 · prior Jul 23

$79.00 → $74.00-6.3%

$0$53.35$106.70

0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain EPS growth trajectory near $4.30 in FY25Diluted EPS: $1.03 per share
Keep profit margins stable near current levelsOperating margin: 25.46%
Sustain revenue growth near 6% annuallyPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-16.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Southern Company outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a utility stock with a focus on stable earnings and cash flow. The current thesis is characterized by medium confidence due to recent mixed results and sector headwinds.

What's priced into Southern Company

The market seems to have priced in a neutral valuation, reflecting a slight expectations gap. The stock is seen as justified in its current valuation, with a premium compared to peers.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals may show some resilience, as management is on track with priorities like responsible growth and maintaining earnings per share (EPS) growth. However, cash flow generation remains mixed, which could impact overall performance.

What Southern Company hinges on

The thesis hinges on several factors, including the Federal Reserve's potential rate cuts and the performance of sector peers. Additionally, any guidance cuts from management could negatively impact investor sentiment.