Synopsys (SNPS)

NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-10-15

$454.63-2.88%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Synopsys’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+5.8%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

17.64 → 18.66 EPS · FY ending Oct 31, 2027 · 13 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 17 to 13; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Stock buybacks up to $2 billion authorized	A supporting condition in Synopsys's published investment case. The stated target is $2 billion buyback authorization.	Improving	Buyback program is canceled or significantly reduced	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
EPS near $14.76 in fiscal 2026	A primary condition in Synopsys's published investment case. The stated target is ~$14.76.	Intact	EPS falls below $14.4 next year	Diluted EPS: $2.84 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$14.76. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 26, 20262.84 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jul 31, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 78039f87-bd88-4769-9bf9-29fa1636fe7e. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue reaches about $9.665 billion in fiscal 2026	Synopsys grows revenue to about $9.7 billion in fiscal 2026.	Under Pressure	Revenue growth falls below ~17% next year	Revenue: $2.477B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$9.665 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 26, 20262,476,822,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jul 31, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 78039f87-bd88-4769-9bf9-29fa1636fe7e. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-10-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$18.66

$17.33 → $18.66 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$11.02B

$10.74B → $11.02B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$17.33	$10,738,353,651	15 / 18
2026-07-25	$17.33	$10,738,353,651	15 / 18
2026-07-26	$17.33	$10,738,353,651	15 / 18
2026-07-27	$17.33	$10,738,353,651	15 / 18
2026-07-28	$17.33	$10,738,353,651	15 / 18
2026-07-29	$17.33	$10,738,353,651	15 / 18
2026-07-30	$17.33	$10,738,353,651	15 / 18
2026-07-31	$17.33	$10,738,353,651	15 / 18
2026-08-01	$17.33	$10,738,353,651	15 / 18
2026-08-02	$17.33	$10,738,353,651	15 / 18
2026-08-03	$17.33	$10,738,353,651	15 / 18
2026-08-04	$17.33	$10,738,353,651	15 / 18
2026-08-05	$17.33	$10,738,353,651	15 / 18
2026-08-06	$17.33	$10,738,353,651	15 / 18
2026-08-08	$17.33	$10,738,353,651	15 / 18
2026-08-09	$17.33	$10,738,353,651	15 / 18
2026-08-10	$17.33	$10,738,353,651	15 / 18
2026-08-12	$17.33	$10,738,353,651	15 / 18
2026-08-13	$17.28	$10,731,265,170	24 / 24
2026-08-14	$17.33	$10,738,353,651	15 / 18
2026-08-15	$17.33	$10,738,353,651	15 / 18
2026-08-16	$17.33	$10,738,353,651	15 / 18
2026-08-17	$17.33	$10,738,353,651	15 / 18
2026-08-18	$17.33	$10,738,353,651	15 / 18
2026-08-19	$17.33	$10,738,353,651	15 / 18
2026-08-20	$17.30	$10,732,282,725	15 / 18
2026-08-21	$17.30	$10,732,282,725	15 / 18
2026-08-22	$17.30	$10,732,282,725	15 / 18
2026-08-23	$17.30	$10,732,282,725	15 / 18
2026-08-24	$17.30	$10,732,282,725	15 / 18
2026-08-25	$17.30	$10,732,282,725	15 / 18
2026-08-26	$17.28	$10,732,282,725	15 / 18
2026-08-27	$17.28	$10,732,282,725	15 / 18
2026-08-28	$17.28	$10,732,282,725	15 / 18
2026-08-29	$17.59	$10,792,488,959	16 / 19
2026-08-30	$17.59	$10,792,488,959	17 / 20
2026-08-31	$17.59	$10,792,488,959	17 / 20
2026-09-01	$17.59	$10,792,488,959	17 / 20
2026-09-02	$17.60	$10,792,490,771	17 / 20
2026-09-03	$17.60	$10,792,490,771	17 / 20
2026-09-04	$17.60	$10,792,490,771	17 / 20
2026-09-05	$17.60	$10,792,490,771	17 / 20
2026-09-06	$17.60	$10,795,371,284	17 / 20
2026-09-07	$17.60	$10,795,371,284	17 / 20
2026-09-08	$17.63	$10,797,873,036	17 / 20
2026-09-09	$17.63	$10,797,873,036	17 / 20
2026-09-10	$17.63	$10,797,873,036	17 / 20
2026-09-11	$17.63	$10,797,873,036	17 / 20
2026-09-12	$17.64	$10,801,968,274	17 / 20
2026-09-13	$17.64	$10,801,968,274	17 / 20
2026-09-14	$17.64	$10,801,968,274	17 / 20
2026-09-15	$17.64	$10,801,968,274	17 / 20
2026-09-16	$17.64	$10,801,968,274	17 / 20
2026-09-17	$17.64	$10,801,968,274	17 / 20
2026-09-18	$17.64	$10,801,968,274	17 / 20
2026-09-19	$17.64	$10,801,968,274	17 / 20
2026-09-20	$17.64	$10,801,968,274	17 / 20
2026-09-21	$17.64	$10,801,968,274	17 / 20
2026-09-22	$17.64	$10,801,970,569	17 / 20
2026-09-23	$17.64	$10,801,970,569	17 / 20
2026-09-24	$17.64	$10,801,970,569	17 / 20
2026-09-25	$17.70	$10,806,400,442	17 / 20
2026-09-26	$17.81	$10,822,469,988	16 / 20
2026-09-27	$17.83	$10,823,523,170	16 / 19
2026-09-28	$17.83	$10,823,523,170	16 / 19
2026-09-29	$17.83	$10,823,523,170	16 / 19
2026-09-30	$17.83	$10,823,523,170	16 / 19
2026-10-01	$17.83	$10,823,523,170	16 / 19
2026-10-02	$18.61	$10,995,321,765	10 / 15
2026-10-03	$18.61	$10,995,321,765	13 / 14
2026-10-04	$18.61	$10,995,321,765	13 / 13
2026-10-05	$18.61	$10,995,321,765	13 / 13
2026-10-06	$18.61	$10,995,321,765	13 / 13
2026-10-07	$18.61	$10,995,321,765	13 / 13
2026-10-08	$18.61	$10,995,321,765	13 / 13
2026-10-09	$18.61	$10,995,321,765	13 / 13
2026-10-10	$18.61	$10,995,321,765	13 / 13
2026-10-11	$18.61	$10,995,321,765	13 / 13
2026-10-12	$18.61	$10,995,321,765	13 / 13
2026-10-13	$18.66	$11,008,276,310	13 / 13
2026-10-14	$18.66	$11,008,276,310	13 / 13
2026-10-15	$18.66	$11,023,276,310	13 / 14

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	17	7	1
2026-06-01	18	7	1
2026-07-01	18	6	1
2026-08-01	20	5	1
2026-09-01	24	5	1
2026-10-01	24	2	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 24 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

2 upgrades0 downgrades4 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 6 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

NeedhamOct 12

$620.00New observation · no comparable prior

Wells FargoOct 1 · prior Sep 10

$475.00 → $540.00+13.7%

KeyBancOct 1

$605.00New observation · no comparable prior

Deutsche BankOct 1

$640.00New observation · no comparable prior

HSBCSep 25

$700.00New observation · no comparable prior

BNP ParibasSep 24

$420.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$385.00$770.00

1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 5 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Stock buybacks up to $2 billion authorizedDirect metric needs a verified mapping
EPS near $14.76 in fiscal 2026Diluted EPS: $2.84 per share
Revenue reaches about $9.665 billion in fiscal 2026Published status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Dec 9, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-31.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Synopsys outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment is characterized as a durable compounder with a focus on revenue growth and margin expansion. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance and management's commitment to growth, despite some volatility in execution quality.

What's priced into Synopsys

The market currently prices SNPS at an expensive valuation compared to its peers, reflecting elevated expectations. There is a notable expectations gap, indicating that investors may be anticipating continued strong performance despite recent mixed signals.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to show continued revenue growth and margin improvement, as management remains on track with its priorities. However, there is a moderate risk due to the potential for guidance cuts, which could negatively impact future estimates.

What Synopsys hinges on

The thesis hinges on several key factors, including the Fed's interest rate decisions, the performance of major tech companies, and SNPS's ability to maintain guidance without cuts. Additionally, the successful integration of the Ansys acquisition will be crucial for future growth.