Schneider National (SNDR)
NYSEIndustrialsTruckingSnapshot 2026-09-09
$33.75-2.57%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsTruckingSnapshot 2026-09-09
Warn: Primary pillar under pressure — stability in operating income through cost management: EPS +20.0% vs consensus in Q1 FY26, +31.8% in Q2 FY26.
Schneider National is a strong trucking company with stable profits. It aims for about $0.85 EPS in 2026 and plans $400-450 million in capital spending. The company beat earnings in Q1 2026 by 20%. It has a robust quality rating and moderate risk.
Profit fell from $42.4M in late 2024 to $33.4M in early 2026. Guidance is soft, showing uncertainty in growth. The stock trades at a high price-to-earnings ratio of 60.6, well above peers.
The price is about 30% above our fair value near $27 and 28% below the Street median near $38. Analysts expect 8% revenue growth, but our model forecasts a 4% decline over 3 years. The market is stretched on growth expectations.
Breaks if: CAPEX exceeds $450M significantly
Breaks if: EPS falls below $0.7 in FY26
Breaks if: operating income falls below $33.4M persistently
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on earnings growth and disciplined capital allocation. The current thesis is stable, supported by strong recent financial performance, but faces challenges from sector dynamics.
The market appears to have priced in a premium compared to peers, reflecting a justified valuation. There is no significant expectations gap, indicating that current performance is largely in line with what investors anticipated.
Fundamentals are likely to remain strong, driven by management's focus on cost discipline and productivity. However, there is a moderate risk due to the potential for earnings misses, as recent surprises have been erratic.
The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like ODFL, XPO, and KNX. Their ability to beat earnings and provide positive guidance will be crucial for maintaining momentum in the Industrials sector.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports the view of ongoing growth. Additionally, price increases amid market imbalance reinforce earnings growth through cost discipline and productivity. There are no new threats impacting the thesis.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Overall, SNDR shows solid fundamentals but faces sector challenges that could impact its trajectory. Not investment advice.