Schneider National (SNDR)

NYSEIndustrialsTruckingSnapshot 2026-10-23

$30.35-2.47%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Schneider National’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-1.9%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

1.71 → 1.68 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 10 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	1.56B
EPS	—	0.348
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	6.12B
EPS	—	1.057
Net capital expenditure	$400M–$450M	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	6.52B
EPS	—	1.676

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
capital spending within guided range	It aims for about $0.85 EPS in 2026 and plans $400-450 million in capital spending.	Intact	CAPEX exceeds $450M significantly	Capital expenditures: $122.6M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: CAPEX <= $450M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 31, 2026122,600,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
earnings per share growth to meet or exceed guidance	A primary condition in Schneider National's published investment case. The stated target is >= $0.85 EPS.	Intact	EPS falls below $0.7 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $0.28 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.85 EPS. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 31, 20260.28 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 8c96333e-7940-45ba-aa67-c1af395d1507. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
stability in operating income through cost management	A primary condition in Schneider National's published investment case. The stated target is operating income >= $33.4M.	Under Pressure	operating income falls below $33.4M persistently	Operating income: $71.4M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: operating income >= $33.4M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 31, 202671,400,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 8c96333e-7940-45ba-aa67-c1af395d1507. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$1.68

$1.65 → $1.68 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$6.52B

$6.41B → $6.52B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$1.65	$6,405,772,110	15 / 14
2026-07-25	$1.65	$6,405,772,110	15 / 14
2026-07-26	$1.65	$6,405,772,110	15 / 14
2026-07-27	$1.65	$6,405,772,110	15 / 14
2026-07-28	$1.65	$6,405,772,110	15 / 14
2026-07-29	$1.65	$6,405,772,110	15 / 14
2026-07-30	$1.65	$6,405,772,110	15 / 14
2026-07-31	$1.65	$6,390,769,960	14 / 13
2026-08-01	$1.64	$6,406,066,719	9 / 10
2026-08-02	$1.70	$6,504,822,710	16 / 14
2026-08-03	$1.70	$6,504,809,058	10 / 11
2026-08-04	$1.70	$6,504,809,058	10 / 11
2026-08-05	$1.70	$6,509,158,420	16 / 14
2026-08-06	$1.70	$6,504,809,058	10 / 11
2026-08-08	$1.70	$6,504,809,058	10 / 11
2026-08-09	$1.71	$6,533,882,040	16 / 14
2026-08-10	$1.71	$6,533,882,040	16 / 14
2026-08-12	$1.70	$6,504,809,058	10 / 11
2026-08-13	$1.71	$6,533,882,040	16 / 14
2026-08-14	$1.70	$6,504,809,058	10 / 11
2026-08-15	$1.70	$6,504,809,058	10 / 11
2026-08-16	$1.70	$6,504,809,058	10 / 11
2026-08-17	$1.70	$6,504,809,058	10 / 11
2026-08-18	$1.70	$6,504,809,058	10 / 11
2026-08-19	$1.70	$6,504,809,058	10 / 11
2026-08-20	$1.71	$6,533,865,225	10 / 11
2026-08-21	$1.71	$6,533,865,225	10 / 11
2026-08-22	$1.71	$6,533,865,225	10 / 11
2026-08-23	$1.71	$6,533,865,225	10 / 11
2026-08-24	$1.71	$6,533,865,225	10 / 11
2026-08-25	$1.71	$6,533,865,225	10 / 11
2026-08-26	$1.71	$6,533,865,225	10 / 11
2026-08-27	$1.71	$6,533,865,225	10 / 11
2026-08-28	$1.71	$6,533,865,225	10 / 11
2026-08-29	$1.71	$6,533,865,225	10 / 11
2026-08-30	$1.71	$6,533,865,225	10 / 11
2026-08-31	$1.71	$6,533,865,225	10 / 11
2026-09-01	$1.71	$6,533,865,225	10 / 11
2026-09-02	$1.71	$6,533,865,225	10 / 11
2026-09-03	$1.71	$6,533,865,225	10 / 11
2026-09-04	$1.71	$6,533,865,225	10 / 11
2026-09-05	$1.71	$6,533,865,225	10 / 11
2026-09-06	$1.71	$6,533,865,225	10 / 11
2026-09-07	$1.71	$6,533,865,225	10 / 11
2026-09-08	$1.71	$6,533,865,225	10 / 11
2026-09-09	$1.71	$6,533,865,225	10 / 11
2026-09-10	$1.71	$6,533,865,225	10 / 11
2026-09-11	$1.71	$6,533,865,225	10 / 11
2026-09-12	$1.71	$6,533,865,225	10 / 11
2026-09-13	$1.71	$6,533,865,225	10 / 11
2026-09-14	$1.71	$6,533,865,225	10 / 11
2026-09-15	$1.71	$6,533,865,225	10 / 11
2026-09-16	$1.71	$6,533,865,225	10 / 11
2026-09-17	$1.71	$6,533,754,104	10 / 11
2026-09-18	$1.71	$6,533,754,104	10 / 11
2026-09-19	$1.71	$6,538,825,533	10 / 11
2026-09-20	$1.71	$6,538,825,533	10 / 11
2026-09-21	$1.71	$6,538,825,533	10 / 11
2026-09-22	$1.71	$6,538,825,533	10 / 11
2026-09-23	$1.71	$6,538,825,533	10 / 11
2026-09-24	$1.71	$6,538,825,533	10 / 11
2026-09-25	$1.71	$6,538,825,533	10 / 11
2026-09-26	$1.71	$6,538,825,533	10 / 11
2026-09-27	$1.71	$6,538,825,533	10 / 11
2026-09-28	$1.71	$6,538,825,533	10 / 11
2026-09-29	$1.71	$6,538,825,533	10 / 11
2026-09-30	$1.71	$6,538,825,533	10 / 11
2026-10-01	$1.71	$6,538,825,533	10 / 11
2026-10-02	$1.71	$6,538,825,533	10 / 11
2026-10-03	$1.71	$6,538,825,533	10 / 11
2026-10-04	$1.71	$6,518,329,390	10 / 11
2026-10-05	$1.71	$6,518,322,247	10 / 11
2026-10-06	$1.71	$6,518,322,247	10 / 11
2026-10-07	$1.70	$6,514,893,587	10 / 11
2026-10-08	$1.70	$6,522,786,444	10 / 11
2026-10-09	$1.68	$6,522,213,374	10 / 10
2026-10-10	$1.68	$6,525,863,374	10 / 10
2026-10-11	$1.68	$6,525,863,374	10 / 10
2026-10-12	$1.68	$6,525,863,374	10 / 10
2026-10-13	$1.68	$6,525,863,374	10 / 10
2026-10-14	$1.67	$6,517,159,963	10 / 10
2026-10-15	$1.67	$6,517,159,963	10 / 10
2026-10-16	$1.68	$6,520,574,606	10 / 10
2026-10-17	$1.68	$6,520,574,606	10 / 10
2026-10-18	$1.68	$6,520,574,606	10 / 10
2026-10-19	$1.68	$6,520,574,606	10 / 10
2026-10-20	$1.68	$6,520,574,606	10 / 10
2026-10-21	$1.68	$6,520,574,606	10 / 10
2026-10-22	$1.68	$6,520,574,606	10 / 10
2026-10-23	$1.68	$6,520,574,606	10 / 10
2026-10-24	$1.68	$6,520,574,606	10 / 10

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	6	10	0
2026-06-01	6	10	0
2026-07-01	6	10	1
2026-08-01	6	10	1
2026-09-01	6	10	1
2026-10-01	6	10	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 10 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Wells FargoOct 6 · prior Jun 5

$38.00 → $35.00-7.9%

$0$20.90$41.80

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

capital spending within guided rangeCapital expenditures: $122.6M
earnings per share growth to meet or exceed guidanceDiluted EPS: $0.28 per share
stability in operating income through cost managementPublished status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-22.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Schneider National outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on earnings growth and disciplined capital allocation. However, the current thesis state shows some volatility in management execution and sector challenges.

What's priced into Schneider National

The market appears to price in a justified valuation, but it is considered expensive compared to peers. There is a slight expectations gap, indicating that investors may have modest expectations for future performance.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to remain strong, supported by management's focus on cost discipline and productivity. However, there is a moderate risk of earnings surprises, as recent trends show a decline in earnings surprises.

What Schneider National hinges on

The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like ODFL, XPO, and KNX. If these companies continue to perform well, it could positively impact SNDR, but any misses or lower guidance could create headwinds.