Supermicro (SMCI)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-10-16
$31.63-9.86%
Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-10-16
Previous published Living FV report summary
Update pending. These are the previous publication’s values, dates and assumptions. A newer calculation has been selected; its matching report is not yet published. This report is not current.
This summary shows published values and their evidence and input disclosures. Expand the evidence sections below to inspect the complete published assumptions and monitoring records.
partial evidence coverage · Financial evidence: questionable · Scope: all prepared sources
Values are USD per common share, conditional on the published operating, funding and return assumptions. A scenario range is not a probability or confidence interval.
Swipe or scroll horizontally to compare Low, Base and High. Keyboard users can focus the table and use the arrow keys.
| Business scope | Bear (Low) | Base | Bull (High) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value of today’s operating business Current reported operating scale, with the stated tax, funding and return assumptions. | $27.63 | $27.63 | $27.84 |
| Value including the business growth plan The whole company forecast, including initiative effects and the investment needed to deliver them. | $154.12 | $154.12 | $262.06 |
Following: current · Continuing updates: current.
384 of 384 published forecast outcomes remain unknown. Publication does not establish forecast accuracy or complete evidence.
These values depend on modeled operations, growth, funding and required return. Company estimates and any disclosed proxy inputs are assumptions, not newly observed company facts. The scenario range does not measure the chance of an outcome.
These are model inputs for the published base case. All scenario paths and all source references remain in the published operating phases below.
Years 1–1
Annual revenue growth: 70% · Operating margin: 9.5%
Input origin: local model estimate
Years 2–3
Annual revenue growth: 20% · Operating margin: 10.5%
Input origin: local model estimate
Years 4–6
Annual revenue growth: 15% · Operating margin: 11%
Input origin: local model estimate
Mature annual growth: 3% · Mature operating margin: 12%.
Published maturity basis: The explicit 6-year path captures the high-growth AI hardware ramp; mature growth is constrained to 3% by the cyclical nature of server hardware and intense competition, which limits indefinite nominal expansion. The 12% operating margin reflects the shift toward higher-value DCBBS solutions and scale efficiencies, while the 4% net capital requirement accounts for the capital-intensive manufacturing footprint and working capital needs inherent in the hardware model.
Exact input bases and proxy disclosures, where supplied, appear under Accounting estimates and Required return below. No supplied entry does not establish that an assumption is unnecessary or evidence is complete.
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{
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{
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"name": "Panther Lake Edge AI systems",
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],
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"name": "enhance production in Malaysia",
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},
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"name": "new production sites",
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],
"setting_rule": "Qualify as capacity expansion for regional AI requirements and cost structure optimization; no specific revenue or margin impact quantified.",
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],
"setting_rule": "Qualify as operational efficiency initiative (DFM/automation) aimed at higher yield and quality; no specific cost savings quantified.",
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"name": "growing our sales force aggressively",
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"condition": "Growing sales force aggressively now.",
"included_in": "ALREADY_IN_OPERATING_REFERENCE",
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},
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"unit": "USD",
"scope": "CONSOLIDATED",
"metric": "revenue",
"known_at": "2026-09-29T15:02:55.261796+00:00",
"paths_ref": {
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},
"forecast_id": "46760cab8eb718da8dfea18c03162442437afe8c0f58956c1eb0a2e4ca71aa47",
"construction": "COMPANY_PATH_WITH_EXPLICIT_FISCAL_ALLOCATION_AND_BOUND_GUIDANCE",
"fiscal_period": "2032-Q4",
"scenario_values": {
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"BASE": "41400063988.254",
"HIGH": "69267849158.935546874999999999999999999999999999999"
},
"accounting_basis": "GAAP"
},
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"absolute_error": null,
"relative_error": null
},
{
"status": "UNKNOWN",
"actual": null,
"reason": "NO_COMPARABLE_RELEASED_ACTUAL",
"forecast": {
"low": "4554007038.70794",
"base": "4554007038.70794",
"high": "6926784915.8935546874999999999999999999999999999999",
"unit": "USD",
"scope": "CONSOLIDATED",
"metric": "operating_profit",
"known_at": "2026-09-29T15:02:55.261796+00:00",
"paths_ref": {
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},
"forecast_id": "e3bede410610fa572f6838d4e935a0a09877d81b5c155c267cc9d792808204d9",
"construction": "COMPANY_PATH_WITH_EXPLICIT_FISCAL_ALLOCATION_AND_BOUND_GUIDANCE",
"fiscal_period": "2032-Q4",
"scenario_values": {
"LOW": "5549181370.9746093749999999999999999999999999999999",
"BASE": "4554007038.70794",
"HIGH": "6926784915.8935546874999999999999999999999999999999"
},
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},
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"absolute_error": null,
"relative_error": null
}
]
}Conditional operating-error evidence, separate from the scenario range. This is not a probability interval covering every valuation assumption. The published status, labels and limitations follow.
{
"empirical_range": {
"low": {
"value": "135.19148341612452114827936715559766145298955373482",
"symbol": "LKQ",
"donor_id": "70dab2b03b48d3c24cc97e10d074310c80d61e64d71e30d430adc6599fe11aa3:5",
"donor_ref": {
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},
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},
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"symbol": "MLM",
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"subject_id": "MLM",
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"record_hash": "243c8c457488383ec50783c167ae39a192e60532c8d9bf5bb0989977bf5ab5d5"
},
"negative_economic_residual": false
},
"issuers": 64,
"meaning": "CONDITIONAL_EMPIRICAL_MODEL_ERROR_STRESS_NOT_TOTAL_FV_PROBABILITY",
"donor_paths": 229
}
}{
"changes": [
{
"status": "RECALCULATED",
"event_id": "financial",
"attribution": {
"method": "SEQUENTIAL_EVENT_FULL_RECALCULATION",
"values": [
{
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},
{
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"before": "27.625188156409287632663199012997513619979799758637",
"change": "0.0001933909508699071731820488682",
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},
{
"after": "27.838071384485742481263932213143912584289251073723",
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"change": "0.0001948798819737750616476503577",
"scenario": "high"
},
{
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"change": "0.05691260778213519201488023531",
"scenario": "low"
},
{
"after": "154.12087408695607209145072820987320987930615507635",
"layer": "joint_funded_business",
"before": "154.06396147917393689943584797456702716829876150908",
"change": "0.05691260778213519201488023531",
"scenario": "base"
},
{
"after": "262.06275903717653037954848731663612982549906636440",
"layer": "joint_funded_business",
"before": "261.95909203131896388137709923975259941596866065745",
"change": "0.1036670058575664981713880769",
"scenario": "high"
}
],
"meaning": "Difference for this saved revision; interacting effects are not independent additive initiative values.",
"assumption_changes": []
}
},
{
"status": "RATES_UNCHANGED",
"event_id": "rates"
}
],
"transitions": []
}{
"version": "living_fv_report_v1",
"status": "CALCULATED_CONDITIONAL",
"publication_status": "PENDING_REFRESH",
"symbol": "SMCI",
"currency": "USD",
"valuation_date": "2026-09-29",
"reported_opening_date": "2026-06-30",
"source_asof": "2026-09-29T15:03:19.104627+00:00",
"published_at": "2026-09-29T15:13:02.580526+00:00",
"following_status": "CURRENT",
"updates_status": "CURRENT",
"disclaimer": "Not investment advice.",
"name": null,
"hypothesis": {
"reset": "Read the latest living report and discard overrides.",
"targets": [
"phase",
"capital",
"maturity",
"rate"
],
"version": "living_fv_user_hypothesis_v1",
"independence": "User scenarios never replace the living company selection.",
"phase_fields": {
"years": "Years in this phase",
"cash_tax_rate": "Cash tax rate",
"revenue_growth": "Annual revenue growth",
"operating_margin": "Operating profit margin",
"net_ppe_investment_ratio": "Net investment in property and equipment / revenue",
"cash_reserve_per_added_revenue": "Cash held for each additional dollar of revenue",
"working_capital_investment_ratio": "Working capital investment / revenue"
}
}
}Living version identifies the selected calculation.
Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.