Southern Missouri Bancorp, Inc. (SMBC)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-09
$72.82-0.95%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-09
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Southern Missouri Bancorp has a strong track record with 128 consecutive quarterly dividends. It expects EPS around $1.60 next quarter and about $6.75 for fiscal 2027. The bank has a moderate risk profile and trades at a reasonable PE of 12.67. Its free cash flow yield is healthy at 11%.
Revenue is expected to decline about 26% next year, which could pressure earnings. The bank's growth prospects are modest, and a soft guidance posture signals caution. Rising inflation and a stormy market environment may also hurt performance.
The stock price is about 20% below our fair value near $95, reflecting cautious sentiment. Analysts expect a 26% revenue decline, which is priced in. Our fair value is 25% above the Street median, showing some optimism versus consensus.
Breaks if: Dividend cut or suspension
Breaks if: EPS falls below $6.75 in fiscal 2027
Breaks if: PE rises significantly above 15 without earnings growth
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a moderate-risk financial institution with a focus on stability and growth. The current thesis state is mixed, with recent earnings beats but insufficient performance history to draw strong conclusions.
The market seems to have priced in a neutral valuation, with expectations slightly above average compared to peers. There is a low level of fragility in execution quality, indicating that the stock is not overly sensitive to negative news.
Management is on track with priorities like growing the loan portfolio and maintaining consistent dividends. However, recent management confidence has decreased, which could affect future performance.
The long-term thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers and whether they continue to exceed earnings expectations. Additionally, any guidance cuts from SMBC could negatively impact sentiment.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, SMBC's performance will depend on external sector dynamics and internal execution. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat contributed positively to the outlook. There are no current threats impacting the thesis.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.