Sirius XM Holdings Inc (SIRI)

Q: What's priced into Sirius XM Holdings Inc (SIRI) stock?

SIRI is viewed as cheap versus peers, and the valuation signal is marked as justified rather than fragile. The expectations gap is negative, which suggests the market is not fully reflecting the model’s view, but model confidence is medium and the evidence does not specify what growth expectations are already embedded.

Q: What does the Sirius XM Holdings Inc (SIRI) outlook hinge on?

Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis depends on sustaining the delivery behind the higher 2026 guidance and avoiding a guidance cut. Lower interest rates and continued strength among sector peers could support the backdrop, while the sector headwind and recent execution concerns remain important risks.

NASDAQCommunication ServicesBroadcastingSnapshot 2026-10-23

$27.63+0.33%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Sirius XM Holdings Inc’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

3.29 → 3.30 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 10 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	2.19B
EPS	—	0.77
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	About $8.53B	8.59B
EPS	—	2.973
EBITDA	About $2.63Bnon-GAAP	—
Free cash flow	About $1.38B	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	8.71B
EPS	—	3.297

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Free cash flow at least $1.35 billion in FY26	Free cash flow stays strong near $1.35 billion.	Intact	Free cash flow falls below $1.0 billion in FY26	Free cash flow: $592M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.35 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 2026592,000,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue reaches at least $8.5 billion in FY26	A primary condition in Sirius XM Holdings Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >= $8.5 billion.	Intact	Revenue falls below $8.0 billion in FY26	Revenue: $2.16B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $8.5 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 20262,160,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: cbf87b8b-3449-4a43-984d-1d987fee96b3. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
PE ratio remains below 15	A supporting condition in Sirius XM Holdings Inc's published investment case. The stated target is <= 15 PE.	Intact	PE rises above 20 without earnings growth	Valuation inputs unavailable A completed valuation measurement is required. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$3.30

$3.37 → $3.30 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$8.71B

$8.68B → $8.71B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$3.37	$8,682,681,910	12 / 14
2026-07-25	$3.37	$8,682,681,910	12 / 14
2026-07-26	$3.37	$8,682,681,910	12 / 14
2026-07-27	$3.37	$8,682,681,910	12 / 14
2026-07-28	$3.37	$8,682,681,910	12 / 14
2026-07-29	$3.37	$8,682,681,910	12 / 14
2026-07-30	$3.41	$8,688,507,768	10 / 11
2026-07-31	$3.31	$8,691,022,343	10 / 11
2026-08-01	$3.31	$8,691,022,343	10 / 11
2026-08-02	$3.30	$8,695,394,610	12 / 14
2026-08-03	$3.26	$8,692,059,530	12 / 13
2026-08-04	$3.26	$8,692,059,530	12 / 13
2026-08-05	$3.29	$8,687,957,574	10 / 10
2026-08-06	$3.27	$8,696,841,000	12 / 14
2026-08-08	$3.26	$8,697,571,710	12 / 14
2026-08-09	$3.29	$8,687,957,574	10 / 10
2026-08-10	$3.29	$8,687,957,574	10 / 10
2026-08-12	$3.26	$8,697,571,710	12 / 14
2026-08-13	$3.29	$8,687,957,574	10 / 10
2026-08-14	$3.29	$8,687,957,574	10 / 10
2026-08-15	$3.29	$8,687,957,574	10 / 11
2026-08-16	$3.29	$8,687,957,574	10 / 11
2026-08-17	$3.29	$8,687,957,574	10 / 11
2026-08-18	$3.29	$8,687,957,574	10 / 11
2026-08-19	$3.29	$8,687,957,574	10 / 11
2026-08-20	$3.23	$8,737,666,824	10 / 11
2026-08-21	$3.23	$8,737,666,824	10 / 11
2026-08-22	$3.23	$8,737,666,824	10 / 11
2026-08-23	$3.24	$8,738,871,965	10 / 11
2026-08-24	$3.24	$8,738,871,965	10 / 11
2026-08-25	$3.24	$8,738,871,965	10 / 11
2026-08-26	$3.24	$8,738,871,965	10 / 11
2026-08-27	$3.24	$8,738,871,965	10 / 11
2026-08-28	$3.24	$8,738,871,965	10 / 11
2026-08-29	$3.24	$8,738,871,965	10 / 11
2026-08-30	$3.24	$8,738,871,965	10 / 11
2026-08-31	$3.24	$8,738,871,965	10 / 11
2026-09-01	$3.24	$8,738,871,965	10 / 11
2026-09-02	$3.24	$8,738,871,965	10 / 11
2026-09-03	$3.25	$8,770,774,535	10 / 11
2026-09-04	$3.25	$8,770,774,535	10 / 11
2026-09-05	$3.25	$8,770,774,535	10 / 11
2026-09-06	$3.25	$8,770,774,535	10 / 11
2026-09-07	$3.25	$8,770,774,535	10 / 11
2026-09-08	$3.25	$8,770,774,535	10 / 11
2026-09-09	$3.25	$8,770,774,535	10 / 11
2026-09-10	$3.25	$8,770,774,535	10 / 11
2026-09-11	$3.25	$8,770,774,535	10 / 11
2026-09-12	$3.25	$8,770,774,535	10 / 11
2026-09-13	$3.25	$8,770,774,535	10 / 11
2026-09-14	$3.25	$8,770,774,535	10 / 11
2026-09-15	$3.25	$8,770,774,535	10 / 11
2026-09-16	$3.25	$8,770,774,535	10 / 11
2026-09-17	$3.25	$8,770,774,535	10 / 11
2026-09-18	$3.25	$8,770,774,535	10 / 11
2026-09-19	$3.25	$8,770,774,535	10 / 11
2026-09-20	$3.29	$8,713,680,268	10 / 11
2026-09-21	$3.29	$8,713,680,268	10 / 11
2026-09-22	$3.29	$8,713,680,268	10 / 11
2026-09-23	$3.29	$8,713,680,268	10 / 11
2026-09-24	$3.29	$8,713,680,268	10 / 11
2026-09-25	$3.29	$8,713,680,268	10 / 11
2026-09-26	$3.29	$8,713,680,268	10 / 11
2026-09-27	$3.29	$8,713,680,268	10 / 11
2026-09-28	$3.29	$8,713,680,268	10 / 11
2026-09-29	$3.29	$8,713,680,268	10 / 11
2026-09-30	$3.29	$8,713,680,268	10 / 11
2026-10-01	$3.29	$8,713,680,268	10 / 11
2026-10-02	$3.29	$8,715,757,191	10 / 11
2026-10-03	$3.29	$8,715,757,191	10 / 11
2026-10-04	$3.29	$8,715,757,191	10 / 11
2026-10-05	$3.29	$8,715,757,191	10 / 11
2026-10-06	$3.29	$8,715,757,191	10 / 11
2026-10-07	$3.29	$8,715,757,191	10 / 11
2026-10-08	$3.29	$8,715,757,191	10 / 11
2026-10-09	$3.29	$8,715,757,191	10 / 11
2026-10-10	$3.29	$8,715,757,191	10 / 11
2026-10-11	$3.29	$8,715,757,191	10 / 11
2026-10-12	$3.29	$8,715,757,191	10 / 11
2026-10-13	$3.29	$8,715,757,191	10 / 11
2026-10-14	$3.30	$8,717,218,730	10 / 11
2026-10-15	$3.30	$8,717,218,730	10 / 11
2026-10-16	$3.30	$8,713,987,960	10 / 11
2026-10-17	$3.30	$8,713,987,960	10 / 11
2026-10-18	$3.30	$8,713,987,960	10 / 11
2026-10-19	$3.30	$8,713,987,960	10 / 11
2026-10-20	$3.30	$8,713,987,960	10 / 11
2026-10-21	$3.30	$8,713,987,960	10 / 11
2026-10-22	$3.30	$8,713,987,960	10 / 11
2026-10-23	$3.30	$8,713,987,960	10 / 11
2026-10-24	$3.30	$8,713,987,960	10 / 11

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	4	6	4
2026-06-01	4	6	4
2026-07-01	4	7	4
2026-08-01	4	7	3
2026-09-01	6	7	3
2026-10-01	6	5	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 3 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Free cash flow at least $1.35 billion in FY26Free cash flow: $592M
Revenue reaches at least $8.5 billion in FY26Revenue: $2.16B
PE ratio remains below 15Valuation inputs unavailable

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-21.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Sirius XM Holdings Inc outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a cash-generative, value-oriented business with a multi-year thesis that currently appears intact. Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality and management execution are rated neutral, and confidence in the thesis has eased to medium.

What's priced into Sirius XM Holdings Inc

SIRI is viewed as cheap versus peers, and the valuation signal is marked as justified rather than fragile. The expectations gap is negative, which suggests the market is not fully reflecting the model’s view, but model confidence is medium and the evidence does not specify what growth expectations are already embedded.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, results and guidance have strengthened: second-quarter revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and free cash flow rose, and full-year 2026 guidance for all three was raised. However, a July earnings miss, a COO transition, and a run of consecutive misses create execution risk; the recent guidance increase makes any reversal especially damaging to credibility.

What Sirius XM Holdings Inc hinges on

Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis depends on sustaining the delivery behind the higher 2026 guidance and avoiding a guidance cut. Lower interest rates and continued strength among sector peers could support the backdrop, while the sector headwind and recent execution concerns remain important risks.

Bottom line

The multi-year view remains intact, supported by stronger recent results and higher guidance, but medium confidence reflects the risk that execution or the sector backdrop weakens. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	2.19B
EPS	—	0.77
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	About $8.53B	8.59B
EPS	—	2.973
EBITDA	About $2.63Bnon-GAAP	—
Free cash flow	About $1.38B	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	8.71B
EPS	—	3.297

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$3.30

$3.37 → $3.30 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$8.71B

$8.68B → $8.71B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$3.37	$8,682,681,910	12 / 14
2026-07-25	$3.37	$8,682,681,910	12 / 14
2026-07-26	$3.37	$8,682,681,910	12 / 14
2026-07-27	$3.37	$8,682,681,910	12 / 14
2026-07-28	$3.37	$8,682,681,910	12 / 14
2026-07-29	$3.37	$8,682,681,910	12 / 14
2026-07-30	$3.41	$8,688,507,768	10 / 11
2026-07-31	$3.31	$8,691,022,343	10 / 11
2026-08-01	$3.31	$8,691,022,343	10 / 11
2026-08-02	$3.30	$8,695,394,610	12 / 14
2026-08-03	$3.26	$8,692,059,530	12 / 13
2026-08-04	$3.26	$8,692,059,530	12 / 13
2026-08-05	$3.29	$8,687,957,574	10 / 10
2026-08-06	$3.27	$8,696,841,000	12 / 14
2026-08-08	$3.26	$8,697,571,710	12 / 14
2026-08-09	$3.29	$8,687,957,574	10 / 10
2026-08-10	$3.29	$8,687,957,574	10 / 10
2026-08-12	$3.26	$8,697,571,710	12 / 14
2026-08-13	$3.29	$8,687,957,574	10 / 10
2026-08-14	$3.29	$8,687,957,574	10 / 10
2026-08-15	$3.29	$8,687,957,574	10 / 11
2026-08-16	$3.29	$8,687,957,574	10 / 11
2026-08-17	$3.29	$8,687,957,574	10 / 11
2026-08-18	$3.29	$8,687,957,574	10 / 11
2026-08-19	$3.29	$8,687,957,574	10 / 11
2026-08-20	$3.23	$8,737,666,824	10 / 11
2026-08-21	$3.23	$8,737,666,824	10 / 11
2026-08-22	$3.23	$8,737,666,824	10 / 11
2026-08-23	$3.24	$8,738,871,965	10 / 11
2026-08-24	$3.24	$8,738,871,965	10 / 11
2026-08-25	$3.24	$8,738,871,965	10 / 11
2026-08-26	$3.24	$8,738,871,965	10 / 11
2026-08-27	$3.24	$8,738,871,965	10 / 11
2026-08-28	$3.24	$8,738,871,965	10 / 11
2026-08-29	$3.24	$8,738,871,965	10 / 11
2026-08-30	$3.24	$8,738,871,965	10 / 11
2026-08-31	$3.24	$8,738,871,965	10 / 11
2026-09-01	$3.24	$8,738,871,965	10 / 11
2026-09-02	$3.24	$8,738,871,965	10 / 11
2026-09-03	$3.25	$8,770,774,535	10 / 11
2026-09-04	$3.25	$8,770,774,535	10 / 11
2026-09-05	$3.25	$8,770,774,535	10 / 11
2026-09-06	$3.25	$8,770,774,535	10 / 11
2026-09-07	$3.25	$8,770,774,535	10 / 11
2026-09-08	$3.25	$8,770,774,535	10 / 11
2026-09-09	$3.25	$8,770,774,535	10 / 11
2026-09-10	$3.25	$8,770,774,535	10 / 11
2026-09-11	$3.25	$8,770,774,535	10 / 11
2026-09-12	$3.25	$8,770,774,535	10 / 11
2026-09-13	$3.25	$8,770,774,535	10 / 11
2026-09-14	$3.25	$8,770,774,535	10 / 11
2026-09-15	$3.25	$8,770,774,535	10 / 11
2026-09-16	$3.25	$8,770,774,535	10 / 11
2026-09-17	$3.25	$8,770,774,535	10 / 11
2026-09-18	$3.25	$8,770,774,535	10 / 11
2026-09-19	$3.25	$8,770,774,535	10 / 11
2026-09-20	$3.29	$8,713,680,268	10 / 11
2026-09-21	$3.29	$8,713,680,268	10 / 11
2026-09-22	$3.29	$8,713,680,268	10 / 11
2026-09-23	$3.29	$8,713,680,268	10 / 11
2026-09-24	$3.29	$8,713,680,268	10 / 11
2026-09-25	$3.29	$8,713,680,268	10 / 11
2026-09-26	$3.29	$8,713,680,268	10 / 11
2026-09-27	$3.29	$8,713,680,268	10 / 11
2026-09-28	$3.29	$8,713,680,268	10 / 11
2026-09-29	$3.29	$8,713,680,268	10 / 11
2026-09-30	$3.29	$8,713,680,268	10 / 11
2026-10-01	$3.29	$8,713,680,268	10 / 11
2026-10-02	$3.29	$8,715,757,191	10 / 11
2026-10-03	$3.29	$8,715,757,191	10 / 11
2026-10-04	$3.29	$8,715,757,191	10 / 11
2026-10-05	$3.29	$8,715,757,191	10 / 11
2026-10-06	$3.29	$8,715,757,191	10 / 11
2026-10-07	$3.29	$8,715,757,191	10 / 11
2026-10-08	$3.29	$8,715,757,191	10 / 11
2026-10-09	$3.29	$8,715,757,191	10 / 11
2026-10-10	$3.29	$8,715,757,191	10 / 11
2026-10-11	$3.29	$8,715,757,191	10 / 11
2026-10-12	$3.29	$8,715,757,191	10 / 11
2026-10-13	$3.29	$8,715,757,191	10 / 11
2026-10-14	$3.30	$8,717,218,730	10 / 11
2026-10-15	$3.30	$8,717,218,730	10 / 11
2026-10-16	$3.30	$8,713,987,960	10 / 11
2026-10-17	$3.30	$8,713,987,960	10 / 11
2026-10-18	$3.30	$8,713,987,960	10 / 11
2026-10-19	$3.30	$8,713,987,960	10 / 11
2026-10-20	$3.30	$8,713,987,960	10 / 11
2026-10-21	$3.30	$8,713,987,960	10 / 11
2026-10-22	$3.30	$8,713,987,960	10 / 11
2026-10-23	$3.30	$8,713,987,960	10 / 11
2026-10-24	$3.30	$8,713,987,960	10 / 11

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings