Somnigroup International (SGI)

NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryFurnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$64.68-1.99%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Somnigroup International’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.2%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

3.86 → 3.85 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	2.79B
EPS	—	0.878
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	8.84B
EPS	$2.85–$3.15non-GAAP	3.114
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	11.53B
EPS	—	3.854

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Quarterly dividend at least $0.17 per share	The company steadily raises dividends to $0.17 per share.	Intact	Dividend per share falls below $0.15 next year	Dividend per share: $0.17 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.17 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 20260.17 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 79252be9-7336-4556-b453-d2eaab29f888. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. The quarterly dividend per share increased from $0.15 in 2025-Q4 to $0.17 in 2026-Q1 and was maintained at $0.17 in 2026-Q2. Management has consistently declared and paid this dividend level, delivering on the capital return priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Operating income improves significantly	Operating income improved sharply from $13 million to $187 million in one year.	Improving	Operating income falls below $13 million (2025-Q1 level) next year	Operating income: $201.7M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $187 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 7, 2026201,700,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 79252be9-7336-4556-b453-d2eaab29f888. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Operating income rose 12.1% from $179.9M in 2025-Q2 to $201.7M in 2026-Q2. North America adjusted operating margin improved 400 basis points to 26.7% in 2026-Q2. Management highlighted synergy-driven efficiencies and margin expansion. The trajectory is delivering on operating income and margin improvement priorities. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue grows at least 4% annually	A primary condition in Somnigroup International's published investment case. The stated target is >=4% YoY.	Broken	YoY revenue growth falls below 4% next year	Revenue growth: -3.05% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=4% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 2026-3.046576 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 79252be9-7336-4556-b453-d2eaab29f888. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Complete Leggett & Platt acquisition	Buybacks and the Leggett & Platt deal add growth and shareholder value.	Intact	Acquisition fails or is significantly delayed beyond 2026	Acquisition completed 2026-08-26 vs target end 2026 News and 8-K filings confirm the $2.3B Leggett & Platt acquisition closed on August 26, 2026, ahead of the end-2026 target. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 3 quarters including 2026-Q1 and 2026-Q2. The acquisition of Leggett & Platt was announced in 2026-Q1 as a $2.5 billion all-stock transaction and completed by 2026-Q2. Post-close, former Leggett & Platt shareholders own about 9% of the combined company. Synergies identified increased from $50 million to $75 million annual run-rate. The transaction reduced net leverage by 0.2x to approximately 2.8x adjusted EBITDA. Management is delivering on this vertical integration priority with synergy realization underway. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$3.85

$3.90 → $3.85 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$11.53B

$8.17B → $11.53B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$3.90	$8,173,184,820	10 / 10
2026-07-25	$3.90	$8,175,123,020	10 / 10
2026-07-26	$3.90	$8,175,123,020	10 / 10
2026-07-27	$3.90	$8,175,123,020	10 / 10
2026-07-28	$3.90	$8,175,123,020	10 / 10
2026-07-29	$3.89	$8,181,878,210	11 / 11
2026-07-30	$3.87	$8,168,767,114	7 / 9
2026-07-31	$3.87	$8,168,767,114	7 / 9
2026-08-01	$3.87	$8,168,767,114	7 / 9
2026-08-02	$3.88	$8,168,778,210	11 / 11
2026-08-03	$3.87	$8,168,767,114	7 / 9
2026-08-04	$3.88	$8,168,778,210	11 / 11
2026-08-05	$3.87	$8,168,767,114	7 / 9
2026-08-06	$3.88	$8,168,778,210	11 / 11
2026-08-08	$3.70	$7,965,532,880	11 / 11
2026-08-09	$3.87	$8,168,767,114	7 / 9
2026-08-10	$3.87	$8,168,767,114	7 / 9
2026-08-12	$3.87	$8,168,767,114	7 / 9
2026-08-13	$3.59	$7,863,283,670	11 / 11
2026-08-14	$3.87	$8,168,767,114	7 / 9
2026-08-15	$3.87	$8,168,767,114	7 / 9
2026-08-16	$3.87	$8,168,767,114	7 / 9
2026-08-17	$3.87	$8,168,767,114	7 / 9
2026-08-18	$3.87	$8,168,767,114	7 / 9
2026-08-19	$3.87	$8,168,767,114	7 / 9
2026-08-20	$3.62	$7,897,968,008	7 / 9
2026-08-21	$3.62	$7,897,968,008	7 / 9
2026-08-22	$3.62	$7,897,968,008	7 / 9
2026-08-23	$3.62	$7,897,968,008	7 / 9
2026-08-24	$3.62	$7,897,968,008	7 / 9
2026-08-25	$3.62	$7,897,968,008	7 / 9
2026-08-26	$3.62	$7,897,968,008	7 / 9
2026-08-27	$3.62	$7,897,968,008	7 / 9
2026-08-28	$3.62	$7,897,968,008	7 / 9
2026-08-29	$3.62	$7,897,968,008	7 / 9
2026-08-30	$3.62	$7,897,968,008	7 / 9
2026-08-31	$3.62	$7,897,968,008	7 / 9
2026-09-01	$3.62	$7,897,968,008	7 / 9
2026-09-02	$3.62	$7,897,968,008	7 / 9
2026-09-03	$3.59	$7,897,968,008	7 / 9
2026-09-04	$3.69	$11,622,985,500	7 / 8
2026-09-05	$3.69	$11,622,985,500	7 / 9
2026-09-06	$3.69	$11,622,985,500	7 / 8
2026-09-07	$3.69	$11,622,985,500	7 / 8
2026-09-08	$3.69	$11,622,985,500	7 / 8
2026-09-09	$3.81	$11,611,386,813	6 / 8
2026-09-10	$3.81	$11,611,386,813	7 / 8
2026-09-11	$3.81	$11,611,386,813	7 / 8
2026-09-12	$3.81	$11,611,386,813	5 / 6
2026-09-13	$3.81	$11,611,386,813	5 / 6
2026-09-14	$3.81	$11,611,386,813	5 / 6
2026-09-15	$3.86	$11,567,466,056	5 / 6
2026-09-16	$3.86	$11,567,466,056	6 / 7
2026-09-17	$3.86	$11,567,466,056	6 / 7
2026-09-18	$3.86	$11,567,466,056	6 / 7
2026-09-19	$3.86	$11,567,466,056	6 / 7
2026-09-20	$3.86	$11,567,466,056	6 / 7
2026-09-21	$3.86	$11,567,466,056	6 / 7
2026-09-22	$3.86	$11,567,466,056	6 / 7
2026-09-23	$3.86	$11,567,466,056	6 / 7
2026-09-24	$3.86	$11,567,466,056	6 / 7
2026-09-25	$3.86	$11,567,466,056	6 / 7
2026-09-26	$3.86	$11,567,466,056	6 / 7
2026-09-27	$3.86	$11,567,466,056	6 / 7
2026-09-28	$3.86	$11,567,466,056	6 / 7
2026-09-29	$3.86	$11,567,466,056	6 / 7
2026-09-30	$3.86	$11,567,466,056	6 / 7
2026-10-01	$3.86	$11,567,466,056	6 / 7
2026-10-02	$3.86	$11,567,466,056	6 / 7
2026-10-03	$3.86	$11,567,466,056	6 / 7
2026-10-04	$3.86	$11,567,466,056	6 / 7
2026-10-05	$3.86	$11,567,466,056	6 / 7
2026-10-06	$3.86	$11,567,466,056	6 / 7
2026-10-07	$3.86	$11,567,466,056	6 / 7
2026-10-08	$3.86	$11,567,466,056	6 / 7
2026-10-09	$3.86	$11,567,466,056	6 / 7
2026-10-10	$3.86	$11,567,466,056	6 / 7
2026-10-11	$3.86	$11,567,466,056	6 / 7
2026-10-12	$3.86	$11,567,466,056	6 / 7
2026-10-13	$3.89	$11,553,783,850	6 / 7
2026-10-14	$3.89	$11,553,783,850	6 / 7
2026-10-15	$3.89	$11,553,783,850	6 / 7
2026-10-16	$3.89	$11,553,783,850	6 / 7
2026-10-17	$3.89	$11,553,783,850	6 / 7
2026-10-18	$3.89	$11,553,783,850	6 / 7
2026-10-19	$3.89	$11,553,783,850	6 / 7
2026-10-20	$3.89	$11,553,783,850	6 / 7
2026-10-21	$3.85	$11,534,385,700	6 / 7
2026-10-22	$3.85	$11,534,385,700	6 / 7
2026-10-23	$3.85	$11,534,385,700	6 / 7
2026-10-24	$3.85	$11,534,385,700	6 / 7

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	8	1
2026-06-01	8	1
2026-07-01	9	1
2026-08-01	9	1
2026-09-01	10	1
2026-10-01	10	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Raymond JamesOct 20 · prior Aug 7

$90.00 → $80.00-11.1%

$0$49.50$99.00

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Quarterly dividend at least $0.17 per shareDividend per share: $0.17 per share
Operating income improves significantlyOperating income: $201.7M
Revenue grows at least 4% annuallyPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 9, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-37.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Somnigroup International outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is an acquisition-led integration and margin-improvement story, with robust earnings quality but volatile management execution. The 1-to-3-year thesis is watchful: the Leggett & Platt integration is on track, while the latest signal has shifted from mildly favorable to mixed.

What's priced into Somnigroup International

SGI is valued at a 1.5-times premium to peers, and the valuation assessment is expensive. The priced-in tag is justified, but the estimated expectations gap is negative, with low model confidence; this suggests limited room for disappointment if execution or sector conditions weaken.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, results are mixed: revenue rose in 2026-Q1 with Mattress Firm’s inclusion, then declined year over year in 2026-Q2, while operating income and North America adjusted margins improved. The acquisition is complete, identified annual synergies have increased, and management says realization is underway. Near-term miss risk is rated low, but past misses and the possibility of guidance cuts remain relevant risks.

What Somnigroup International hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on realizing acquisition synergies and sustaining margin gains while revenue growth remains uneven. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could support the sector backdrop, while misses or lower guidance from those peers could remove that support.