Southern First Bancshares, Inc. (SFST)

NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-10-23

$61.20-0.07%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Southern First Bancshares, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	39.1M
EPS	—	1.36
Quarter ending 2027-03-31
Revenue	—	40.3M
EPS	—	1.405
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	146.4M
EPS	—	5.02
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	172.3M
EPS	—	6.175

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Core revenue growth sustaining 60% increase since Q1 2024	Southern First Bancshares grows core revenue 60% since early 2024.	Intact	core revenue growth falls below 40% since Q1 2024 by 2026-Q2	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
EPS reaching $3.75 in 2026	Earnings per share are expected to rise to $3.75 in 2026.	Broken	EPS falls below $3.00 in 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Net interest margin (NIM) at least 2.88% in 2026-Q2	Profit margins improve with a net interest margin target of at least 2.88% in 2026-Q2.	Intact	NIM falls below 2.5% in 2026-Q2	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Attract experienced bankers to strengthen team	The company attracts experienced bankers to strengthen client service.	Intact	Significant loss of key banking talent or failure to attract experienced bankers	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	1	0
2026-06-01	1	1
2026-07-01	1	1
2026-08-01	1	1
2026-09-01	1	1
2026-10-01	1	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Core revenue growth sustaining 60% increase since Q1 2024Direct metric needs a verified mapping
EPS reaching $3.75 in 2026Published status: Broken
Net interest margin (NIM) at least 2.88% in 2026-Q2Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Attract experienced bankers to strengthen teamDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-16.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Southern First Bancshares, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

SFST is a regional-bank growth and execution story, with recent results showing strong financial performance rather than a turnaround. Its multi-year view is intact, though confidence has eased from high to medium and the evidence on earnings quality and management remains neutral.

What's priced into Southern First Bancshares, Inc.

The valuation is tagged as stretched, and SFST is valued at a slight premium to peers. Expectations appear broadly aligned with the evidence, with only a small gap; low valuation fragility suggests the setup is not marked by a broad mix of expensive valuation, weak execution, and turbulence.

What the fundamentals likely do

Through 2026-Q3, loans and retail deposits grew, and net interest margin, the share of interest income retained after funding costs, expanded. The efficiency ratio improved, though expenses also rose; two recent earnings beats support the near-term picture, while the sector backdrop is a headwind and near-term miss risk is described as low.

What Southern First Bancshares, Inc. hinges on

The thesis depends on continued organic growth in lending and client relationships, further margin progress, and keeping expenses disciplined. A guidance cut or rate cuts from the current level could weigh on the business, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could support sector momentum.