SEA LTD (SE)

NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-10-16

$93.77-3.83%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 16, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge SEA LTD’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Oct 4, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-1.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

4.76 → 4.71 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 11 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 16, 2026 to Oct 16, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 11 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Stability in leadership and management	A supporting condition in SEA LTD's published investment case. The stated target is No significant leadership changes.	Under Pressure	any significant leadership changes occur	Qualitative: 2 exec share sales (CEO, COO) vs no leadership changes CEO sold $621k shares; COO sold $5.9M shares. No management departures or replacements reported. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Improvement in profit margins	A supporting condition in SEA LTD's published investment case. The stated target is >=10% profit margin.	Improving	falls below 10% profit margin in FY26	Net margin: 5.66% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=10% profit margin. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 11, 20265.659996 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth from e-commerce operations	A primary condition in SEA LTD's published investment case. The stated target is >=15% YoY.	Intact	falls below 15% YoY growth in FY26	Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate segment_revenue from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Oct 4, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$4.71

$4.87 → $4.71 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$38.83B

$36.91B → $38.83B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$4.87	$36,907,448,802	10 / 17
2026-07-25	$4.87	$36,907,448,802	10 / 17
2026-07-26	$4.87	$36,907,458,314	10 / 17
2026-07-27	$4.87	$36,907,458,314	10 / 17
2026-07-28	$5.25	$36,352,329,620	9 / 24
2026-07-29	$5.25	$36,352,329,620	9 / 24
2026-07-30	$5.25	$36,352,329,620	9 / 24
2026-07-31	$5.25	$36,352,329,620	9 / 24
2026-08-01	$4.87	$36,907,458,314	10 / 17
2026-08-02	$5.25	$36,352,329,620	9 / 24
2026-08-03	$4.87	$36,907,458,314	10 / 17
2026-08-04	$4.87	$36,907,458,314	10 / 17
2026-08-05	$4.87	$36,907,458,314	10 / 17
2026-08-06	$5.25	$36,344,250,450	9 / 24
2026-08-08	$5.25	$36,344,250,450	9 / 24
2026-08-09	$4.85	$36,899,702,314	10 / 17
2026-08-10	$4.85	$36,899,702,314	10 / 17
2026-08-12	$5.25	$36,344,250,450	9 / 24
2026-08-13	$4.85	$36,899,702,314	10 / 17
2026-08-14	$4.85	$36,899,702,314	10 / 17
2026-08-15	$4.85	$36,899,702,314	10 / 17
2026-08-16	$4.85	$36,899,702,314	10 / 17
2026-08-17	$4.85	$36,899,702,314	10 / 17
2026-08-18	$4.85	$36,899,702,314	11 / 17
2026-08-19	$4.85	$36,899,702,314	11 / 17
2026-08-20	$4.72	$38,397,051,179	11 / 17
2026-08-21	$4.74	$38,450,573,226	11 / 17
2026-08-22	$4.74	$38,450,573,226	11 / 17
2026-08-23	$4.74	$38,450,573,226	11 / 17
2026-08-24	$4.74	$38,450,573,226	11 / 17
2026-08-25	$4.74	$38,450,573,226	11 / 17
2026-08-26	$4.74	$38,450,573,226	11 / 17
2026-08-27	$4.74	$38,450,573,226	11 / 17
2026-08-28	$4.74	$38,450,573,226	11 / 17
2026-08-29	$4.74	$38,450,573,226	11 / 17
2026-08-30	$4.74	$38,450,573,226	11 / 17
2026-08-31	$4.74	$38,450,573,226	11 / 17
2026-09-01	$4.74	$38,450,573,226	11 / 17
2026-09-02	$4.74	$38,548,012,718	11 / 17
2026-09-03	$4.74	$38,548,012,718	11 / 17
2026-09-04	$4.74	$38,548,012,718	11 / 17
2026-09-05	$4.74	$38,548,012,718	11 / 17
2026-09-06	$4.74	$38,548,012,718	11 / 17
2026-09-07	$4.74	$38,548,012,718	11 / 17
2026-09-08	$4.76	$38,794,166,564	11 / 17
2026-09-09	$4.76	$38,794,166,564	11 / 17
2026-09-10	$4.76	$38,794,166,564	11 / 17
2026-09-11	$4.76	$38,794,166,564	11 / 17
2026-09-12	$4.76	$38,794,166,564	11 / 17
2026-09-13	$4.76	$38,794,166,564	11 / 17
2026-09-14	$4.76	$38,794,166,564	11 / 17
2026-09-15	$4.76	$38,794,166,564	11 / 17
2026-09-16	$4.76	$38,794,166,564	11 / 17
2026-09-17	$4.76	$38,794,166,564	11 / 17
2026-09-18	$4.76	$38,794,166,564	11 / 17
2026-09-19	$4.76	$38,794,166,564	11 / 17
2026-09-20	$4.75	$38,794,166,564	11 / 17
2026-09-21	$4.75	$38,794,166,564	11 / 17
2026-09-22	$4.75	$38,794,166,564	11 / 17
2026-09-23	$4.75	$38,794,166,564	11 / 17
2026-09-24	$4.75	$38,794,166,564	11 / 17
2026-09-25	$4.75	$38,794,166,564	11 / 17
2026-09-26	$4.74	$38,775,589,641	11 / 17
2026-09-27	$4.74	$38,764,982,221	11 / 17
2026-09-28	$4.74	$38,764,982,221	11 / 17
2026-09-29	$4.74	$38,764,982,221	11 / 17
2026-09-30	$4.74	$38,764,982,221	11 / 17
2026-10-01	$4.74	$38,764,982,221	11 / 17
2026-10-02	$4.73	$38,753,316,213	11 / 17
2026-10-03	$4.73	$38,753,316,213	11 / 17
2026-10-04	$4.73	$38,753,316,213	11 / 17
2026-10-05	$4.73	$38,753,316,213	11 / 17
2026-10-06	$4.71	$38,829,531,719	11 / 17
2026-10-07	$4.71	$38,829,531,719	11 / 17
2026-10-08	$4.71	$38,829,531,719	11 / 17
2026-10-09	$4.71	$38,829,531,719	11 / 17
2026-10-10	$4.71	$38,829,531,719	11 / 17
2026-10-11	$4.71	$38,829,531,719	11 / 17
2026-10-12	$4.71	$38,829,531,719	11 / 17
2026-10-13	$4.71	$38,829,531,719	11 / 17
2026-10-14	$4.71	$38,829,531,719	11 / 17
2026-10-15	$4.71	$38,829,531,719	11 / 17
2026-10-16	$4.71	$38,829,531,719	11 / 17

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	30	2
2026-06-01	28	2
2026-07-01	28	2
2026-08-01	27	2
2026-09-01	28	2
2026-10-01	27	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 27 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 17–Oct 16 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 17, 2026–Oct 16, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Stability in leadership and managementPublished status: Under Pressure
Improvement in profit marginsNet margin: 5.66%
Revenue growth from e-commerce operationsRequired source inputs unavailable

Next proof point

Nov 10, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-52.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

SEA LTD outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a speculative growth opportunity within the Consumer Discretionary sector. The current thesis state is insufficient due to a lack of recent financial performance history, which makes it challenging to assess the long-term potential.

What's priced into SEA LTD

The valuation is now considered fair, suggesting that the market has moderate expectations for SE. There is low fragility in the pricing, indicating that the current market environment does not reflect significant vulnerabilities.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals may face challenges in the near term, as SE has a 24% probability of missing earnings expectations. The company has a history of consecutive earnings misses, which adds to the uncertainty surrounding its performance.

What SEA LTD hinges on

The future trajectory of SE hinges on external factors such as inflation rates and the performance of major sector players like AMZN, BABA, and PDD. If these companies continue to perform well, it could provide a tailwind for SE; however, any negative shifts could further impact its fundamentals.