Sabra Health Care REIT (SBRA)

NASDAQReal EstateReit - Healthcare FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$19.56-0.20%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Sabra Health Care REIT’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-2.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

0.77 → 0.75 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	243.54M
EPS	—	0.169
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	928.66M
EPS	—	0.399
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	1.02B
EPS	—	0.75

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain quarterly dividend of $0.30 per share	It maintains a stable dividend of $0.30 per share, showing strong capital allocation.	Intact	Dividend per share falls below $0.30 in any quarter of 2026	Dividend per share: $0.30 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Dividend per share >= $0.30 quarterly. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 3, 20260.3 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 07cba9ec-cbdc-4665-a049-d40e2321b884. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Management stated the $0.30 quarterly dividend in 5 consecutive quarters from 2025-Q2 through 2026-Q2. The dividend per share remained steady at $0.30, demonstrating consistent capital return to shareholders and delivery on this capital allocation priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
EPS near $0.62 in 2026	Earnings per share are expected near $0.62 in 2026, supporting steady income.	Intact	EPS guidance falls below $0.60 for FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth of at least 13% annually	A primary condition in Sabra Health Care REIT's published investment case. The stated target is >=13% YoY revenue growth.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 7% next year	Revenue growth: 24.7% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=13% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 3, 202624.697859 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 07cba9ec-cbdc-4665-a049-d40e2321b884. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$0.75

Unavailable → $0.75 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$1.02B

$0.97B → $1.02B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$974,176,100	3 / 7
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$987,563,850	3 / 7
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$987,563,850	3 / 7
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$987,563,850	3 / 7
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$987,563,850	3 / 7
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$987,563,850	3 / 7
2026-07-30	$0.78	$987,099,449	5 / 5
2026-07-31	$0.78	$987,099,449	5 / 5
2026-08-01	$0.78	$987,099,449	5 / 5
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$987,563,850	3 / 7
2026-08-03	$0.78	$987,099,449	5 / 5
2026-08-04	$0.78	$987,099,449	5 / 5
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$987,563,850	3 / 7
2026-08-06	$0.78	$987,099,449	5 / 5
2026-08-08	$0.79	$989,580,927	5 / 5
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$988,891,430	3 / 7
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$988,891,430	3 / 7
2026-08-12	$0.79	$989,580,927	5 / 5
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$988,891,430	3 / 7
2026-08-14	$0.79	$989,580,927	5 / 5
2026-08-15	$0.79	$989,580,927	5 / 5
2026-08-16	$0.79	$989,580,927	5 / 5
2026-08-17	$0.79	$989,580,927	5 / 5
2026-08-18	$0.79	$989,580,927	5 / 5
2026-08-19	$0.79	$989,580,927	5 / 5
2026-08-20	$0.77	$1,003,710,044	5 / 5
2026-08-21	$0.77	$1,003,710,044	6 / 5
2026-08-22	$0.77	$1,003,710,044	6 / 5
2026-08-23	$0.77	$1,003,710,044	6 / 5
2026-08-24	$0.77	$1,003,710,044	6 / 5
2026-08-25	$0.77	$1,003,710,044	6 / 5
2026-08-26	$0.77	$1,003,710,044	6 / 5
2026-08-27	$0.77	$1,003,710,044	6 / 5
2026-08-28	$0.77	$1,003,710,044	6 / 5
2026-08-29	$0.77	$1,009,461,844	6 / 5
2026-08-30	$0.77	$1,009,461,844	6 / 5
2026-08-31	$0.77	$1,009,461,844	6 / 5
2026-09-01	$0.77	$1,009,461,844	6 / 5
2026-09-02	$0.77	$1,009,461,844	5 / 5
2026-09-03	$0.77	$1,009,461,844	5 / 5
2026-09-04	$0.77	$1,011,564,444	5 / 5
2026-09-05	$0.77	$1,011,564,444	5 / 5
2026-09-06	$0.77	$1,011,564,444	5 / 5
2026-09-07	$0.77	$1,011,564,444	5 / 5
2026-09-08	$0.77	$1,011,564,444	5 / 5
2026-09-09	$0.77	$1,011,564,444	5 / 5
2026-09-10	$0.77	$1,011,564,444	5 / 5
2026-09-11	$0.77	$1,011,564,444	5 / 5
2026-09-12	$0.77	$1,011,564,444	5 / 5
2026-09-13	$0.77	$1,011,564,444	5 / 5
2026-09-14	$0.77	$1,011,564,444	5 / 5
2026-09-15	$0.77	$1,011,564,444	5 / 5
2026-09-16	$0.77	$1,011,564,444	5 / 5
2026-09-17	$0.77	$1,011,564,444	5 / 5
2026-09-18	$0.77	$1,011,564,444	5 / 5
2026-09-19	$0.77	$1,011,564,444	5 / 5
2026-09-20	$0.77	$1,011,564,444	5 / 5
2026-09-21	$0.77	$1,011,564,444	5 / 5
2026-09-22	$0.77	$1,011,564,444	5 / 5
2026-09-23	$0.77	$1,011,564,444	5 / 5
2026-09-24	$0.77	$1,011,564,444	5 / 5
2026-09-25	$0.77	$1,011,564,444	5 / 5
2026-09-26	$0.77	$1,011,564,444	5 / 5
2026-09-27	$0.77	$1,011,564,444	5 / 5
2026-09-28	$0.77	$1,011,564,444	5 / 5
2026-09-29	$0.77	$1,011,564,444	5 / 5
2026-09-30	$0.77	$1,011,564,444	5 / 5
2026-10-01	$0.77	$1,011,564,444	5 / 5
2026-10-02	$0.77	$1,011,564,444	5 / 5
2026-10-03	$0.77	$1,011,564,444	5 / 5
2026-10-04	$0.77	$1,011,564,444	5 / 5
2026-10-05	$0.77	$1,011,564,444	5 / 5
2026-10-06	$0.77	$1,011,564,444	5 / 5
2026-10-07	$0.77	$1,011,564,444	5 / 5
2026-10-08	$0.77	$1,011,564,444	5 / 5
2026-10-09	$0.77	$1,011,564,444	5 / 5
2026-10-10	$0.77	$1,011,564,444	5 / 5
2026-10-11	$0.76	$1,016,844,444	5 / 5
2026-10-12	$0.76	$1,016,844,444	5 / 5
2026-10-13	$0.76	$1,016,844,444	5 / 5
2026-10-14	$0.76	$1,016,844,444	5 / 5
2026-10-15	$0.76	$1,016,844,444	5 / 5
2026-10-16	$0.76	$1,016,844,444	5 / 5
2026-10-17	$0.76	$1,016,844,444	5 / 5
2026-10-18	$0.76	$1,016,844,444	5 / 5
2026-10-19	$0.76	$1,016,844,444	5 / 5
2026-10-20	$0.76	$1,016,844,444	5 / 5
2026-10-21	$0.75	$1,023,176,950	5 / 5
2026-10-22	$0.75	$1,023,176,950	5 / 5
2026-10-23	$0.75	$1,023,176,950	5 / 5
2026-10-24	$0.75	$1,023,176,950	5 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	6	7	0
2026-06-01	6	9	1
2026-07-01	6	10	1
2026-08-01	6	10	1
2026-09-01	6	10	0
2026-10-01	6	10	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 10 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

UBSOct 13 · prior Jul 22

$25.00 → $20.00-20.0%

$0$13.75$27.50

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain quarterly dividend of $0.30 per shareDividend per share: $0.30 per share
EPS near $0.62 in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Revenue growth of at least 13% annuallyRevenue growth: 24.7%

Next proof point

Nov 2, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-16.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Sabra Health Care REIT outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a healthcare real estate income and growth business, with a thesis tied to steady operating gains and portfolio investment. The long-term thesis is intact and recently shifted from mixed to mildly favorable, while earnings quality is neutral and management is stable.

What's priced into Sabra Health Care REIT

The valuation is expensive versus peers, with a 1.47 peer premium, and the expectations gap is slightly negative. Pricing is tagged as justified, with low fragility, but the premium leaves less room for weaker results to be absorbed.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, results have been strong overall, with an August earnings beat after an in-line quarter and an earlier miss. Management has reiterated and raised 2026 guidance, calling for Normalized FFO and AFFO per share growth of 7% and 8%, while revenue and investment activity have increased. The sector remains a headwind, and a guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful risk.

What Sabra Health Care REIT hinges on

The multi-year view depends on management delivering its earnings guidance and turning portfolio investment into continued revenue growth. Near term, Fed rate cuts and continued strong results from sector peers could support the backdrop, while weaker guidance or results could weigh on the thesis.