SBA Communications (SBAC)

NASDAQReal EstateReit - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-10-15

$187.06+1.82%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge SBA Communications’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.7%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

8.39 → 8.33 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 9 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Capex near $440 million in 2026	Capex is cut to $430-$450 million, focusing on new towers.	Intact	Capex rises above $450 million in FY26	Capital expenditures: $62.419M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $430M to $450M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 202662,419,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Discretionary cash capital expenditures totaled $179.2M in 2026-Q1 and $75.4M in 2026-Q2, with full year 2026 guidance of $455M to $475M. Management maintains disciplined capital allocation, showing consistent focus on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Steady contributions from key customers like Verizon	The company has steady deals with Verizon, supporting growth.	Intact	Key customer contributions decline noticeably	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. International site leasing revenue grew from $705M in 2025 to an outlook of $838M-$849M in 2026, reflecting steady contributions from key customers. Management's statements and revenue trajectory indicate delivery on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Full year 2026 revenue near $2.88 billion	A primary condition in SBA Communications's published investment case. The stated target is ~$2.88 billion.	Intact	Revenue falls below $2.81 billion in FY26	Revenue: $715.274M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$2.88 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 2026715,274,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 8b1cb4ab-2c14-44a3-8fd7-60a5ad6c7935. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. The full year 2026 revenue outlook increased from a range of $2,625M-$2,650M in 2025-Q4 to $2,841M-$2,886M in 2026-Q2. AFFO per share outlook also rose from $11.84-$12.29 to $11.95-$12.40. Management has consistently updated and increased the outlook, delivering on this growth priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$8.33

$8.01 → $8.33 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$2.94B

$2.94B → $2.94B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$8.01	$2,939,216,980	9 / 17
2026-07-25	$8.35	$2,936,533,704	9 / 12
2026-07-26	$8.01	$2,939,216,980	9 / 17
2026-07-27	$8.01	$2,939,216,980	9 / 17
2026-07-28	$8.01	$2,939,216,980	9 / 17
2026-07-29	$8.09	$2,939,216,980	10 / 17
2026-07-30	$8.09	$2,939,216,980	10 / 17
2026-07-31	$8.35	$2,936,533,704	9 / 12
2026-08-01	$8.35	$2,936,533,704	9 / 12
2026-08-02	$8.09	$2,939,216,980	10 / 17
2026-08-03	$8.09	$2,939,216,980	10 / 17
2026-08-04	$8.32	$2,933,682,427	9 / 12
2026-08-05	$8.11	$2,936,833,570	9 / 17
2026-08-06	$8.32	$2,933,682,427	9 / 12
2026-08-08	$8.39	$2,934,121,258	9 / 12
2026-08-09	$8.39	$2,934,121,258	9 / 12
2026-08-10	$8.39	$2,934,121,258	9 / 12
2026-08-12	$8.39	$2,934,121,258	9 / 12
2026-08-13	$8.39	$2,934,121,258	9 / 12
2026-08-14	$8.39	$2,934,121,258	9 / 12
2026-08-15	$8.39	$2,934,121,258	9 / 12
2026-08-16	$8.39	$2,934,121,258	9 / 12
2026-08-17	$8.39	$2,934,121,258	9 / 12
2026-08-18	$8.39	$2,934,121,258	9 / 12
2026-08-19	$8.39	$2,934,121,258	9 / 12
2026-08-20	$8.40	$2,934,374,199	9 / 12
2026-08-21	$8.41	$2,934,374,199	9 / 12
2026-08-22	$8.41	$2,934,384,205	9 / 12
2026-08-23	$8.41	$2,934,384,205	9 / 12
2026-08-24	$8.41	$2,934,384,205	9 / 12
2026-08-25	$8.41	$2,934,384,205	9 / 12
2026-08-26	$8.41	$2,933,776,499	9 / 12
2026-08-27	$8.41	$2,933,776,499	9 / 12
2026-08-28	$8.41	$2,933,776,499	9 / 12
2026-08-29	$8.41	$2,933,776,499	9 / 12
2026-08-30	$8.41	$2,933,776,499	9 / 12
2026-08-31	$8.41	$2,933,776,499	9 / 12
2026-09-01	$8.41	$2,932,817,675	9 / 12
2026-09-02	$8.41	$2,932,817,675	9 / 12
2026-09-03	$8.41	$2,932,817,675	9 / 12
2026-09-04	$8.41	$2,932,817,675	9 / 12
2026-09-05	$8.41	$2,932,817,675	9 / 12
2026-09-06	$8.39	$2,932,817,675	9 / 12
2026-09-07	$8.39	$2,932,817,675	9 / 12
2026-09-08	$8.39	$2,932,817,675	9 / 12
2026-09-09	$8.39	$2,932,817,675	9 / 12
2026-09-10	$8.39	$2,932,817,675	9 / 12
2026-09-11	$8.39	$2,932,817,675	9 / 12
2026-09-12	$8.39	$2,932,817,675	9 / 12
2026-09-13	$8.39	$2,932,817,675	9 / 12
2026-09-14	$8.39	$2,932,817,675	9 / 12
2026-09-15	$8.39	$2,932,120,871	9 / 12
2026-09-16	$8.39	$2,935,447,490	9 / 12
2026-09-17	$8.39	$2,935,447,490	9 / 12
2026-09-18	$8.39	$2,935,447,490	9 / 12
2026-09-19	$8.39	$2,935,447,490	9 / 12
2026-09-20	$8.39	$2,935,447,490	9 / 12
2026-09-21	$8.39	$2,935,447,490	9 / 12
2026-09-22	$8.39	$2,935,447,490	9 / 12
2026-09-23	$8.37	$2,935,514,703	9 / 12
2026-09-24	$8.37	$2,935,514,703	9 / 12
2026-09-25	$8.37	$2,935,514,703	9 / 12
2026-09-26	$8.37	$2,935,514,703	9 / 12
2026-09-27	$8.33	$2,936,617,771	9 / 12
2026-09-28	$8.33	$2,936,617,771	9 / 12
2026-09-29	$8.33	$2,936,617,771	9 / 12
2026-09-30	$8.37	$2,935,514,703	9 / 12
2026-10-01	$8.33	$2,935,514,703	9 / 12
2026-10-02	$8.33	$2,935,514,703	9 / 12
2026-10-03	$8.33	$2,935,514,703	9 / 12
2026-10-04	$8.33	$2,935,514,703	9 / 12
2026-10-05	$8.33	$2,935,514,703	9 / 12
2026-10-06	$8.33	$2,935,514,703	9 / 12
2026-10-07	$8.33	$2,935,209,203	9 / 12
2026-10-08	$8.33	$2,935,209,203	9 / 12
2026-10-09	$8.33	$2,935,320,314	9 / 12
2026-10-10	$8.33	$2,935,320,314	9 / 12
2026-10-11	$8.33	$2,935,320,314	9 / 12
2026-10-12	$8.33	$2,935,320,314	9 / 12
2026-10-13	$8.33	$2,935,320,314	9 / 12
2026-10-14	$8.33	$2,935,320,314	9 / 12
2026-10-15	$8.33	$2,935,320,314	9 / 12

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	11	11
2026-06-01	10	11
2026-07-01	11	11
2026-08-01	11	10
2026-09-01	12	10
2026-10-01	12	10

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 12 Buy / Strong Buy · 10 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Raymond JamesOct 5

$271.00New observation · no comparable prior

BarclaysSep 30 · prior Aug 20

$208.00 → $207.00-0.5%

Morgan StanleySep 21 · prior Aug 4

$215.00 → $205.00-4.7%

$0$149.05$298.10

0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Capex near $440 million in 2026Capital expenditures: $62.419M
Steady contributions from key customers like VerizonQualitative condition
Full year 2026 revenue near $2.88 billionRevenue: $715.274M

Next proof point

Nov 2, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-29.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

SBA Communications outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a stable, long-term thesis in the real estate sector, particularly in site leasing. The current state is characterized by mixed signals, with management focused on growth but facing sector challenges.

What's priced into SBA Communications

The market seems to have a neutral view on SBAC, with a low expectations gap. Valuation is aligned with peers, but there is a slight premium, indicating that investors may expect steady performance without significant surprises.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management has shown a commitment to increasing revenue and maintaining steady contributions from key customers. However, recent changes indicate a decline in company momentum, which could impact future performance.

What SBA Communications hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to meet guidance and the performance of sector bellwethers. Additionally, any changes in Federal Reserve interest rates could significantly influence market sentiment.