Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (RXRX)

NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-10-23

$3.70+3.35%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	13.74M
EPS	—	-0.216
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	44.33M
EPS	—	-0.9
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	55.63M
EPS	—	-0.873

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain operating cash burn below $390 million in 2026	It plans to keep cash burn under $390M in 2026.	Improving	annual cash burn exceeds $390 million in 2026	Cash from operations: $-105.947M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: <=390 million USD. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 2026-105,947,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Stabilize leadership and reduce management volatility	A supporting condition in Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is No major leadership departures in next 12 months.	Intact	unexpected key executive departures occur	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve about 42% revenue growth in 2026	A primary condition in Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=42% YoY.	Intact	revenue growth falls below 30% in 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$-0.87

$-0.94 → $-0.87 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.06B

$0.08B → $0.06B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$-0.94	$83,762,890	7 / 8
2026-07-25	$-0.94	$83,762,890	7 / 8
2026-07-26	$-0.94	$83,762,890	7 / 8
2026-07-27	$-0.94	$83,762,890	7 / 8
2026-07-28	$-0.94	$83,762,890	7 / 8
2026-07-29	$-0.94	$83,762,890	7 / 8
2026-07-30	$-0.93	$83,762,886	5 / 6
2026-07-31	$-0.93	$83,762,886	5 / 6
2026-08-01	$-0.93	$83,762,886	5 / 6
2026-08-02	$-0.94	$83,762,890	7 / 8
2026-08-03	$-0.93	$83,762,886	5 / 6
2026-08-04	$-0.94	$83,762,890	7 / 8
2026-08-05	$-0.94	$83,762,890	7 / 8
2026-08-06	$-0.93	$83,762,886	5 / 6
2026-08-08	$-0.94	$73,962,886	5 / 6
2026-08-09	$-0.91	$81,575,130	7 / 7
2026-08-10	$-0.91	$81,575,130	7 / 7
2026-08-12	$-0.88	$67,789,410	7 / 7
2026-08-13	$-0.94	$73,962,886	5 / 6
2026-08-14	$-0.94	$73,962,886	5 / 6
2026-08-15	$-0.94	$73,962,886	5 / 6
2026-08-16	$-0.94	$73,962,886	5 / 6
2026-08-17	$-0.94	$73,962,886	5 / 6
2026-08-18	$-0.94	$73,962,886	5 / 6
2026-08-19	$-0.94	$73,962,886	5 / 6
2026-08-20	$-0.89	$58,675,598	5 / 6
2026-08-21	$-0.89	$58,675,598	5 / 6
2026-08-22	$-0.89	$58,675,598	5 / 6
2026-08-23	$-0.89	$58,675,598	5 / 6
2026-08-24	$-0.89	$58,675,598	5 / 6
2026-08-25	$-0.89	$58,675,598	5 / 6
2026-08-26	$-0.89	$58,675,598	5 / 6
2026-08-27	$-0.89	$58,675,598	5 / 6
2026-08-28	$-0.89	$58,675,598	5 / 6
2026-08-29	$-0.89	$58,675,598	5 / 6
2026-08-30	$-0.89	$58,675,598	5 / 6
2026-08-31	$-0.89	$58,675,598	5 / 6
2026-09-01	$-0.89	$58,675,598	5 / 6
2026-09-02	$-0.89	$58,675,598	5 / 6
2026-09-03	$-0.89	$58,675,598	5 / 6
2026-09-04	$-0.89	$58,675,598	5 / 6
2026-09-05	$-0.89	$58,675,598	5 / 6
2026-09-06	$-0.89	$58,675,598	5 / 6
2026-09-07	$-0.89	$58,675,598	5 / 6
2026-09-08	$-0.89	$58,675,598	5 / 6
2026-09-09	$-0.89	$58,675,598	5 / 6
2026-09-10	$-0.89	$58,675,598	5 / 6
2026-09-11	$-0.89	$58,675,598	5 / 6
2026-09-12	$-0.89	$58,675,598	5 / 6
2026-09-13	$-0.89	$58,675,598	5 / 6
2026-09-14	$-0.89	$58,675,598	5 / 6
2026-09-15	$-0.89	$58,675,598	5 / 6
2026-09-16	$-0.89	$58,675,598	5 / 6
2026-09-17	$-0.89	$58,675,598	5 / 6
2026-09-18	$-0.89	$58,675,598	5 / 6
2026-09-19	$-0.89	$58,675,598	5 / 6
2026-09-20	$-0.89	$58,675,598	5 / 6
2026-09-21	$-0.89	$58,675,598	5 / 6
2026-09-22	$-0.90	$54,800,598	5 / 6
2026-09-23	$-0.90	$54,800,598	5 / 6
2026-09-24	$-0.90	$54,800,598	5 / 6
2026-09-25	$-0.90	$54,800,598	5 / 6
2026-09-26	$-0.90	$54,800,598	5 / 6
2026-09-27	$-0.90	$54,800,598	5 / 6
2026-09-28	$-0.90	$54,800,598	5 / 6
2026-09-29	$-0.90	$54,800,598	5 / 6
2026-09-30	$-0.90	$54,800,598	5 / 6
2026-10-01	$-0.90	$54,800,598	5 / 6
2026-10-02	$-0.90	$54,800,598	5 / 6
2026-10-03	$-0.90	$54,800,598	5 / 6
2026-10-04	$-0.90	$54,800,598	5 / 6
2026-10-05	$-0.90	$54,800,598	5 / 6
2026-10-06	$-0.90	$54,800,598	5 / 6
2026-10-07	$-0.90	$54,800,598	5 / 6
2026-10-08	$-0.90	$54,800,598	5 / 6
2026-10-09	$-0.90	$54,800,598	5 / 6
2026-10-10	$-0.90	$54,800,598	5 / 6
2026-10-11	$-0.90	$54,800,598	5 / 6
2026-10-12	$-0.90	$54,800,598	5 / 6
2026-10-13	$-0.90	$54,800,598	5 / 6
2026-10-14	$-0.90	$54,800,598	5 / 6
2026-10-15	$-0.90	$54,800,598	5 / 6
2026-10-16	$-0.90	$54,800,598	5 / 6
2026-10-17	$-0.90	$54,800,598	5 / 6
2026-10-18	$-0.87	$55,625,598	5 / 6
2026-10-19	$-0.87	$55,625,598	5 / 6
2026-10-20	$-0.87	$55,625,598	5 / 6
2026-10-21	$-0.87	$55,625,598	5 / 6
2026-10-22	$-0.87	$55,625,598	5 / 6
2026-10-23	$-0.87	$55,625,598	5 / 6
2026-10-24	$-0.87	$55,625,598	5 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	3	5
2026-06-01	3	5
2026-07-01	3	5
2026-08-01	3	4
2026-09-01	3	4
2026-10-01	3	4

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Morgan StanleyOct 16 · prior Aug 17

$5.30 → $5.90+11.3%

$0$3.25$6.49

1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain operating cash burn below $390 million in 2026Cash from operations: $-105.947M
Stabilize leadership and reduce management volatilityDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Achieve about 42% revenue growth in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

3.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-54.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is speculative growth, with a long-term thesis tied to drug-development progress and partnerships rather than current profits. The thesis is in a watch state, and the signal recently shifted from mixed to cautious.

What's priced into Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

RXRX is expensive versus peers, with valuation supported by expectations for future platform potential rather than current earnings. The model points to a sizable expectations gap, but confidence in that estimate is low; the evidence says the valuation is not paired with the full combination of weak fundamentals and turbulence.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, results remain uncertain: the latest evidence includes an earnings miss, a lowered 2026 cash operating expense outlook, and elevated risk, while the next-print miss risk is worth watching. Over the multi-year view, cost control and pipeline progress are mixed, with REC-4881 advancing, REC-7735 receiving IND clearance, and Sanofi optioning a candidate for a milestone payment.

What Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. hinges on

A key favorable test is whether guidance reverses course next quarter and whether partner milestones continue to turn the platform into drug candidates. The thesis also depends on clinical progress and cost control; weaker employment data or softer healthcare-sector results could add pressure to an already uncertain business setup.