Republic Services (RSG)

NYSEIndustrialsWaste ManagementSnapshot 2026-10-15

$231.54+0.82%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Republic Services’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.2%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

8.08 → 8.09 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 17 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 17 to 17; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Quarterly dividend maintained at $0.625 per share	The company pays a steady dividend of $0.625 per share.	Intact	Dividend per share falls below $0.625 in any quarter	Dividend per share: $0.62 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Maintain $0.625 per share quarterly dividend. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 20260.625 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 02e5140f-0cdd-40fd-8527-f1513e3bc5e9. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. The quarterly dividend was $0.625 per share through 2026-Q1 and increased to $0.67 per share in 2026-Q2. Management has consistently emphasized returning capital to shareholders with dividend increases, and the trajectory is delivering. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Adjusted free cash flow between $2.52B and $2.56B in 2026	Free cash flow should reach about $2.54 billion.	Intact	Free cash flow falls below $2.52 billion in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Full-year revenue near $17.05B to $17.15B in 2026	A primary condition in Republic Services's published investment case. The stated target is >= $17.05 billion.	Intact	Revenue falls below $17.05 billion in FY26	Revenue: $5.076B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $17.05 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 20265,076,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 02e5140f-0cdd-40fd-8527-f1513e3bc5e9. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$8.09

$8.08 → $8.09 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$18.16B

$18.03B → $18.16B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$8.08	$18,032,931,303	16 / 19
2026-07-25	$8.08	$18,032,931,303	16 / 19
2026-07-26	$8.07	$18,036,395,150	26 / 24
2026-07-27	$8.07	$18,036,395,150	26 / 24
2026-07-28	$8.07	$18,036,395,150	26 / 24
2026-07-29	$8.08	$18,030,657,570	16 / 19
2026-07-30	$8.07	$18,036,395,150	26 / 24
2026-07-31	$8.08	$18,030,686,160	16 / 19
2026-08-01	$8.08	$18,030,686,160	16 / 19
2026-08-02	$8.08	$18,030,686,160	16 / 19
2026-08-03	$8.07	$18,036,395,150	26 / 24
2026-08-04	$8.08	$18,030,686,160	16 / 19
2026-08-05	$8.08	$18,030,686,160	16 / 19
2026-08-06	$8.08	$18,030,686,160	16 / 19
2026-08-08	$8.08	$18,030,686,160	16 / 19
2026-08-09	$8.07	$18,074,414,190	26 / 22
2026-08-10	$8.08	$18,030,686,160	16 / 19
2026-08-12	$8.07	$18,090,347,880	27 / 25
2026-08-13	$8.08	$18,030,686,160	16 / 19
2026-08-14	$8.08	$18,030,686,160	16 / 19
2026-08-15	$8.08	$18,030,686,160	16 / 19
2026-08-16	$8.08	$18,030,686,160	17 / 19
2026-08-17	$8.08	$18,030,686,160	17 / 19
2026-08-18	$8.08	$18,030,686,160	16 / 19
2026-08-19	$8.08	$18,030,686,160	16 / 19
2026-08-20	$8.08	$18,096,321,776	17 / 19
2026-08-21	$8.08	$18,096,305,257	17 / 19
2026-08-22	$8.08	$18,096,305,257	17 / 19
2026-08-23	$8.08	$18,096,305,257	17 / 19
2026-08-24	$8.08	$18,096,305,257	17 / 19
2026-08-25	$8.08	$18,096,305,257	17 / 19
2026-08-26	$8.08	$18,096,305,257	17 / 19
2026-08-27	$8.08	$18,096,305,257	17 / 19
2026-08-28	$8.08	$18,096,305,257	17 / 19
2026-08-29	$8.08	$18,096,305,257	17 / 19
2026-08-30	$8.08	$18,096,305,257	17 / 19
2026-08-31	$8.08	$18,096,305,257	17 / 19
2026-09-01	$8.08	$18,096,305,257	17 / 19
2026-09-02	$8.08	$18,096,305,257	17 / 19
2026-09-03	$8.08	$18,096,305,257	17 / 19
2026-09-04	$8.08	$18,096,305,257	17 / 19
2026-09-05	$8.08	$18,096,305,257	17 / 19
2026-09-06	$8.08	$18,096,305,257	17 / 19
2026-09-07	$8.08	$18,096,305,257	17 / 19
2026-09-08	$8.08	$18,096,305,257	17 / 19
2026-09-09	$8.08	$18,096,294,705	17 / 19
2026-09-10	$8.08	$18,096,294,705	17 / 19
2026-09-11	$8.08	$18,096,294,705	17 / 19
2026-09-12	$8.08	$18,096,294,705	17 / 19
2026-09-13	$8.08	$18,096,294,705	17 / 19
2026-09-14	$8.08	$18,096,294,705	17 / 19
2026-09-15	$8.08	$18,096,294,705	17 / 19
2026-09-16	$8.08	$18,097,199,092	17 / 19
2026-09-17	$8.08	$18,097,199,092	17 / 19
2026-09-18	$8.08	$18,097,199,092	17 / 19
2026-09-19	$8.08	$18,097,199,092	17 / 19
2026-09-20	$8.08	$18,097,213,730	17 / 19
2026-09-21	$8.08	$18,097,213,730	17 / 19
2026-09-22	$8.08	$18,097,213,730	17 / 19
2026-09-23	$8.08	$18,097,213,730	17 / 19
2026-09-24	$8.08	$18,097,213,730	17 / 19
2026-09-25	$8.08	$18,097,213,730	17 / 19
2026-09-26	$8.08	$18,097,213,730	17 / 19
2026-09-27	$8.08	$18,097,213,730	17 / 19
2026-09-28	$8.08	$18,097,213,730	17 / 19
2026-09-29	$8.08	$18,097,213,730	17 / 19
2026-09-30	$8.08	$18,098,338,497	17 / 19
2026-10-01	$8.08	$18,098,338,497	17 / 19
2026-10-02	$8.08	$18,098,338,497	17 / 19
2026-10-03	$8.08	$18,098,338,497	17 / 19
2026-10-04	$8.08	$18,103,332,372	17 / 19
2026-10-05	$8.08	$18,103,332,372	17 / 19
2026-10-06	$8.08	$18,103,332,372	17 / 19
2026-10-07	$8.08	$18,103,332,372	17 / 19
2026-10-08	$8.08	$18,111,649,038	17 / 19
2026-10-09	$8.08	$18,128,892,084	17 / 19
2026-10-10	$8.08	$18,150,293,765	17 / 19
2026-10-11	$8.08	$18,150,293,765	17 / 19
2026-10-12	$8.08	$18,150,293,765	17 / 19
2026-10-13	$8.08	$18,150,293,765	17 / 19
2026-10-14	$8.09	$18,151,898,292	17 / 19
2026-10-15	$8.09	$18,163,981,906	17 / 19

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	16	12
2026-06-01	15	12
2026-07-01	15	12
2026-08-01	15	12
2026-09-01	15	12
2026-10-01	15	12

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 15 Buy / Strong Buy · 12 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

ScotiabankOct 15

$236.00New observation · no comparable prior

BMO CapitalOct 15

$244.00New observation · no comparable prior

Morgan StanleyOct 13 · prior Aug 7

$232.00 → $219.00-5.6%

Raymond JamesOct 9

$235.00New observation · no comparable prior

CIBCOct 8 · prior May 8

$249.00 → $240.00-3.6%

$0$136.95$273.90

0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 3 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Quarterly dividend maintained at $0.625 per shareDividend per share: $0.62 per share
Adjusted free cash flow between $2.52B and $2.56B in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Full-year revenue near $17.05B to $17.15B in 2026Revenue: $5.076B

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-14.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Republic Services outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

RSG represents a durable compounder in the waste management sector. The current thesis state is intact, with management focusing on revenue growth and cash flow generation despite a challenging sector backdrop.

What's priced into Republic Services

The market appears to have a stretched valuation, with expectations that are somewhat aligned with its peers. There is a 23% expectations gap, indicating that investors may be anticipating moderate growth.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track to meet its revenue and cash flow targets for 2026, which suggests that fundamentals should remain stable. However, there is a moderate risk of missing expectations due to the high-miss-rate nature of the industry.

What Republic Services hinges on

The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like WM, CLH, and CWST. If these companies continue to perform well, it could support RSG's growth; conversely, any negative guidance from them could impact RSG's outlook.