NYSEIndustrialsWaste ManagementSnapshot 2026-08-31
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Create your account →Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Republic Services grows revenue to about $17.1 billion in 2026. Free cash flow should reach about $2.54 billion. The company pays a steady dividend of $0.625 per share. It is the second largest waste service provider in the US.
Revenue growth could slow below 2%. Free cash flow might miss $2.5 billion. Dividend cuts could happen if cash flow weakens.
The price is about 17% above our fair value near $188. Analysts expect about 4% revenue decline, but we see modest growth.
Breaks if: Dividend per share falls below $0.625 in any quarter
Breaks if: Free cash flow falls below $2.52 billion in FY26
Revenue falls below $17.05 billion in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on consistent revenue and cash flow generation. The current thesis state is intact, with management emphasizing growth and returning capital to shareholders.
The market appears to have a neutral valuation stance on RSG, with expectations that align closely with its performance. There is a slight premium compared to peers, indicating that some growth is already anticipated.
Fundamentals are likely to remain stable, as management is on track to meet its revenue and cash flow goals. However, there is a moderate risk due to the potential for sector peers to impact RSG's performance.
The long-term thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like WM, CLH, and CWST. If these companies continue to perform well, RSG could benefit; conversely, any negative guidance from them could pose risks.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports a positive outlook. The company raised its full-year revenue guidance to $17.2 billion to $17.3 billion. Additionally, RSG plans to invest approximately $1 billion in acquisitions this year.
as of 2026-08-31
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Target full-year revenue between $17.05 billion and $17.15 billion for 2026.
Overall, RSG is positioned well for the next few years, provided it can maintain its operational momentum and navigate sector dynamics. Not investment advice.
