Repay Holdings Corp. (RPAY)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-09
$3.55-3.53%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-09
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Repay raised 2026 revenue outlook to $490M-$500M. The Kubra deal supports growth. Adjusted EBITDA margins aim near 42%. Free cash flow should grow by 25% by 2028.
Repay is loss-making and has volatile management. Debt from acquisitions may pressure cash flow. Profit margins might not reach 42%.
Analysts expect about 60% revenue growth in 2026. Our fair value is much higher than the Street median, reflecting confidence in growth and margin targets.
Breaks if: adjusted EBITDA margin falls below 38% in FY26
Breaks if: free cash flow growth less than 15% by FY28
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround opportunity in the tech sector. RPAY is currently navigating a volatile management landscape while working to integrate recent acquisitions and achieve its financial targets.
The market seems to have priced in a low expectations gap, indicating that RPAY is viewed as relatively cheap compared to its peers. However, the valuation is under pressure due to its recent performance, which has lagged behind industry standards.
Management is focused on achieving significant revenue growth and improving profitability, but the trajectory shows mixed results. Recent financial performance has been neutral, and while the risk of missing targets is low, the company operates in a high-risk environment.
The future performance of RPAY will depend on management's ability to meet revenue and profitability targets, as well as external factors like Federal Reserve rate changes and the performance of sector leaders. Any guidance cuts could negatively impact sentiment.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation rose by 12.7 points (from 49.3 to 62.0).
Signal changed from 'mixed' to 'mild_favorable'.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports a positive outlook. The KUBRA acquisition enhances growth potential and client expansion. The Visa deal also reinforces this growth trajectory.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Target Free Cash Flow accretion of 25% by 2028, with 2026 Free Cash Flow Conversion guidance at 30% and Adjusted Free Cash Flow Conversion at 35%.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Free Cash Flow Conversion guidance for 2026 is 30% with Adjusted Free Cash Flow Conversion at 35%, down from prior 45% guidance earlier in 2026. Management maintains a target of 25% Free Cash Flow accretion by 2028. The trajectory shows some moderation in near-term conversion but consistent focus on long-term accretion.
“REPAY reiterates 2026 Free Cash Flow Conversion at 30% and Adjusted Free Cash Flow Conversion at 35%.”
“We have strong confidence in achieving Free Cash Flow Conversion of 45% in 2026.”
“REPAY continues to expect Free Cash Flow accretion of 25% by 2028.”
Breaks if: revenue falls below $490 million in FY26
Over the next 1 to 3 years, RPAY's success will hinge on execution and external market conditions. Not investment advice.