Ross Stores (ROST)

Q: What's priced into Ross Stores (ROST) stock?

The market appears to be pricing in a premium compared to peers, indicating high expectations for ROST's future performance. However, the valuation is considered expensive, reflecting a divergence driven by a durable premium.

Q: What does the Ross Stores (ROST) outlook hinge on?

The thesis hinges on ROST's ability to maintain guidance and deliver on its growth plans, as well as external factors like inflation and sector performance. Positive earnings from sector leaders could provide a favorable backdrop, while any cuts to guidance would pose significant risks.

NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-10-15

$236.89+0.88%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Ross Stores’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

9.04 → 9.01 EPS · FY ending Jan 31, 2028 · 11 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 11 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Comparable store sales increase of 7% to 8%	Comparable store sales are expected to increase 7% to 8%, showing strong sales growth.	Intact	comparable store sales growth falls below 5% next quarter	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Comparable store sales grew from 2% in 2025-Q2 to 10% in 2026-Q3, with management forecasting 6%-7% growth in Q3 and 4%-5% in Q4 2026. The trajectory shows strong delivery and sustained growth in customer traffic and sales. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Maintain or increase dividend per share to about $0.45	The company maintains dividends, increasing per share payouts to about $0.45.	Intact	dividend per share falls below $0.40 next quarter	Dividend per share: $0.45 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.45 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Sep 1, 20260.445 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Aug 1, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 060503f1-ef3c-4c2e-979e-9552873ba022. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
EPS guidance for fiscal 2026 at $7.50 or higher	Ross Stores grows earnings steadily with EPS guidance raised to $7.50-$7.74 for fiscal 2026.	Intact	EPS guidance mid falls below $6.40 for fiscal 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Management raised fiscal 2026 EPS guidance from $7.02-$7.36 in 2026-Q1 to $8.61-$8.77 in 2026-Q3. Reported diluted EPS grew from $1.56 in 2025-Q2 to $2.66 in 2026-Q2. The trajectory is delivering with consistent upward revisions and EPS growth. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Price-to-earnings ratio remains justified below 30	A supporting condition in Ross Stores's published investment case. The stated target is <= 30 PE TTM.	Broken	PE TTM rises above 35 without earnings growth acceleration	P/E (TTM): 30.66x As of 2026-10-15; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Market data as of Oct 15, 202630.6567 ratio · calculatedLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · TTM valuation Period ending Oct 15, 2026 Source: mart.stock_valuation_daily. Reference: ROST:2026-10-15. Source status: canonical calculation. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$9.01

$8.61 → $9.01 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$27.47B

$26.75B → $27.47B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$8.61	$26,745,128,592	14 / 13
2026-07-25	$8.61	$26,745,128,592	14 / 13
2026-07-26	$8.61	$26,745,128,592	14 / 13
2026-07-27	$8.61	$26,745,128,592	14 / 13
2026-07-28	$8.62	$26,755,375,479	14 / 13
2026-07-29	$8.62	$26,755,375,479	14 / 13
2026-07-30	$8.62	$26,755,375,479	14 / 13
2026-07-31	$8.62	$26,755,375,479	14 / 13
2026-08-01	$8.62	$26,755,375,479	14 / 13
2026-08-02	$8.62	$26,755,375,479	14 / 13
2026-08-03	$8.62	$26,755,375,479	14 / 13
2026-08-04	$8.62	$26,755,375,479	14 / 13
2026-08-05	$8.62	$26,755,375,479	14 / 13
2026-08-06	$8.62	$26,755,375,479	14 / 13
2026-08-08	$8.59	$26,769,940,790	19 / 18
2026-08-09	$8.59	$26,769,940,790	19 / 18
2026-08-10	$8.63	$26,755,375,479	15 / 13
2026-08-12	$8.63	$26,755,375,479	15 / 13
2026-08-13	$8.63	$26,755,375,479	15 / 13
2026-08-14	$8.63	$26,755,375,479	15 / 13
2026-08-15	$8.63	$26,755,375,479	15 / 14
2026-08-16	$8.63	$26,755,375,479	15 / 14
2026-08-17	$8.63	$26,755,375,479	15 / 14
2026-08-18	$8.63	$26,755,375,479	15 / 14
2026-08-19	$8.63	$26,755,375,479	15 / 14
2026-08-20	$8.70	$26,866,801,605	15 / 14
2026-08-21	$8.94	$27,331,856,894	15 / 15
2026-08-22	$9.02	$27,434,768,315	14 / 15
2026-08-23	$9.02	$27,434,768,315	14 / 15
2026-08-24	$9.02	$27,434,768,315	14 / 15
2026-08-25	$9.02	$27,434,768,315	14 / 15
2026-08-26	$9.02	$27,434,768,315	14 / 15
2026-08-27	$9.02	$27,434,768,315	14 / 15
2026-08-28	$9.02	$27,434,768,315	14 / 15
2026-08-29	$9.02	$27,434,780,471	12 / 15
2026-08-30	$9.02	$27,434,780,471	12 / 15
2026-08-31	$9.02	$27,434,780,471	12 / 15
2026-09-01	$9.04	$27,433,361,675	12 / 15
2026-09-02	$9.04	$27,469,497,137	11 / 15
2026-09-03	$9.04	$27,469,497,137	11 / 15
2026-09-04	$9.04	$27,469,495,121	11 / 15
2026-09-05	$9.04	$27,469,495,121	11 / 15
2026-09-06	$9.04	$27,469,495,121	11 / 15
2026-09-07	$9.04	$27,469,495,121	11 / 15
2026-09-08	$9.04	$27,469,495,121	11 / 15
2026-09-09	$9.04	$27,469,495,121	11 / 15
2026-09-10	$9.04	$27,469,495,121	11 / 15
2026-09-11	$9.04	$27,469,495,121	11 / 15
2026-09-12	$9.04	$27,469,495,121	11 / 15
2026-09-13	$9.04	$27,469,495,121	11 / 15
2026-09-14	$9.04	$27,469,495,121	11 / 15
2026-09-15	$9.04	$27,469,495,121	11 / 15
2026-09-16	$9.04	$27,469,495,121	11 / 15
2026-09-17	$9.04	$27,469,495,121	11 / 15
2026-09-18	$9.04	$27,469,495,121	11 / 15
2026-09-19	$9.04	$27,469,495,121	11 / 15
2026-09-20	$9.04	$27,469,495,121	11 / 15
2026-09-21	$9.04	$27,469,495,121	11 / 15
2026-09-22	$9.04	$27,469,495,121	11 / 15
2026-09-23	$9.04	$27,469,495,121	11 / 15
2026-09-24	$9.04	$27,469,495,121	11 / 15
2026-09-25	$9.04	$27,469,495,121	11 / 15
2026-09-26	$9.01	$27,469,495,121	11 / 15
2026-09-27	$9.01	$27,469,495,121	11 / 15
2026-09-28	$9.01	$27,469,495,121	11 / 15
2026-09-29	$9.01	$27,469,495,121	11 / 15
2026-09-30	$9.01	$27,469,495,121	11 / 15
2026-10-01	$9.01	$27,469,495,121	11 / 15
2026-10-02	$9.01	$27,469,495,121	11 / 15
2026-10-03	$9.01	$27,469,495,121	11 / 15
2026-10-04	$9.01	$27,469,495,121	11 / 15
2026-10-05	$9.01	$27,469,495,121	11 / 15
2026-10-06	$9.01	$27,469,495,121	11 / 15
2026-10-07	$9.01	$27,469,503,193	11 / 15
2026-10-08	$9.01	$27,469,503,193	11 / 15
2026-10-09	$9.01	$27,469,503,193	11 / 15
2026-10-10	$9.01	$27,469,503,193	11 / 15
2026-10-11	$9.01	$27,469,503,193	11 / 15
2026-10-12	$9.01	$27,469,503,193	11 / 15
2026-10-13	$9.01	$27,469,503,193	11 / 15
2026-10-14	$9.01	$27,469,503,193	11 / 15
2026-10-15	$9.01	$27,469,503,193	11 / 15

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	15	3	2
2026-06-01	15	4	1
2026-07-01	14	4	2
2026-08-01	14	5	2
2026-09-01	14	5	1
2026-10-01	14	5	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 14 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Comparable store sales increase of 7% to 8%Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Maintain or increase dividend per share to about $0.45Dividend per share: $0.45 per share
EPS guidance for fiscal 2026 at $7.50 or higherDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Price-to-earnings ratio remains justified below 30Published status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 19, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-13.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Ross Stores outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a stable management team. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance and consistent management priorities.

What's priced into Ross Stores

The market appears to be pricing in a premium compared to peers, indicating high expectations for ROST's future performance. However, the valuation is considered expensive, reflecting a divergence driven by a durable premium.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to remain strong, with management on track to increase earnings per share and comparable store sales. However, there is a moderate risk due to potential sector headwinds and the recent decline in company momentum.

What Ross Stores hinges on

The thesis hinges on ROST's ability to maintain guidance and deliver on its growth plans, as well as external factors like inflation and sector performance. Positive earnings from sector leaders could provide a favorable backdrop, while any cuts to guidance would pose significant risks.

Bottom line

In the 1-3 year view, ROST's strong execution and management priorities are key, but external pressures and high valuation create a cautious outlook. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$9.01

$8.61 → $9.01 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$27.47B

$26.75B → $27.47B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$8.61	$26,745,128,592	14 / 13
2026-07-25	$8.61	$26,745,128,592	14 / 13
2026-07-26	$8.61	$26,745,128,592	14 / 13
2026-07-27	$8.61	$26,745,128,592	14 / 13
2026-07-28	$8.62	$26,755,375,479	14 / 13
2026-07-29	$8.62	$26,755,375,479	14 / 13
2026-07-30	$8.62	$26,755,375,479	14 / 13
2026-07-31	$8.62	$26,755,375,479	14 / 13
2026-08-01	$8.62	$26,755,375,479	14 / 13
2026-08-02	$8.62	$26,755,375,479	14 / 13
2026-08-03	$8.62	$26,755,375,479	14 / 13
2026-08-04	$8.62	$26,755,375,479	14 / 13
2026-08-05	$8.62	$26,755,375,479	14 / 13
2026-08-06	$8.62	$26,755,375,479	14 / 13
2026-08-08	$8.59	$26,769,940,790	19 / 18
2026-08-09	$8.59	$26,769,940,790	19 / 18
2026-08-10	$8.63	$26,755,375,479	15 / 13
2026-08-12	$8.63	$26,755,375,479	15 / 13
2026-08-13	$8.63	$26,755,375,479	15 / 13
2026-08-14	$8.63	$26,755,375,479	15 / 13
2026-08-15	$8.63	$26,755,375,479	15 / 14
2026-08-16	$8.63	$26,755,375,479	15 / 14
2026-08-17	$8.63	$26,755,375,479	15 / 14
2026-08-18	$8.63	$26,755,375,479	15 / 14
2026-08-19	$8.63	$26,755,375,479	15 / 14
2026-08-20	$8.70	$26,866,801,605	15 / 14
2026-08-21	$8.94	$27,331,856,894	15 / 15
2026-08-22	$9.02	$27,434,768,315	14 / 15
2026-08-23	$9.02	$27,434,768,315	14 / 15
2026-08-24	$9.02	$27,434,768,315	14 / 15
2026-08-25	$9.02	$27,434,768,315	14 / 15
2026-08-26	$9.02	$27,434,768,315	14 / 15
2026-08-27	$9.02	$27,434,768,315	14 / 15
2026-08-28	$9.02	$27,434,768,315	14 / 15
2026-08-29	$9.02	$27,434,780,471	12 / 15
2026-08-30	$9.02	$27,434,780,471	12 / 15
2026-08-31	$9.02	$27,434,780,471	12 / 15
2026-09-01	$9.04	$27,433,361,675	12 / 15
2026-09-02	$9.04	$27,469,497,137	11 / 15
2026-09-03	$9.04	$27,469,497,137	11 / 15
2026-09-04	$9.04	$27,469,495,121	11 / 15
2026-09-05	$9.04	$27,469,495,121	11 / 15
2026-09-06	$9.04	$27,469,495,121	11 / 15
2026-09-07	$9.04	$27,469,495,121	11 / 15
2026-09-08	$9.04	$27,469,495,121	11 / 15
2026-09-09	$9.04	$27,469,495,121	11 / 15
2026-09-10	$9.04	$27,469,495,121	11 / 15
2026-09-11	$9.04	$27,469,495,121	11 / 15
2026-09-12	$9.04	$27,469,495,121	11 / 15
2026-09-13	$9.04	$27,469,495,121	11 / 15
2026-09-14	$9.04	$27,469,495,121	11 / 15
2026-09-15	$9.04	$27,469,495,121	11 / 15
2026-09-16	$9.04	$27,469,495,121	11 / 15
2026-09-17	$9.04	$27,469,495,121	11 / 15
2026-09-18	$9.04	$27,469,495,121	11 / 15
2026-09-19	$9.04	$27,469,495,121	11 / 15
2026-09-20	$9.04	$27,469,495,121	11 / 15
2026-09-21	$9.04	$27,469,495,121	11 / 15
2026-09-22	$9.04	$27,469,495,121	11 / 15
2026-09-23	$9.04	$27,469,495,121	11 / 15
2026-09-24	$9.04	$27,469,495,121	11 / 15
2026-09-25	$9.04	$27,469,495,121	11 / 15
2026-09-26	$9.01	$27,469,495,121	11 / 15
2026-09-27	$9.01	$27,469,495,121	11 / 15
2026-09-28	$9.01	$27,469,495,121	11 / 15
2026-09-29	$9.01	$27,469,495,121	11 / 15
2026-09-30	$9.01	$27,469,495,121	11 / 15
2026-10-01	$9.01	$27,469,495,121	11 / 15
2026-10-02	$9.01	$27,469,495,121	11 / 15
2026-10-03	$9.01	$27,469,495,121	11 / 15
2026-10-04	$9.01	$27,469,495,121	11 / 15
2026-10-05	$9.01	$27,469,495,121	11 / 15
2026-10-06	$9.01	$27,469,495,121	11 / 15
2026-10-07	$9.01	$27,469,503,193	11 / 15
2026-10-08	$9.01	$27,469,503,193	11 / 15
2026-10-09	$9.01	$27,469,503,193	11 / 15
2026-10-10	$9.01	$27,469,503,193	11 / 15
2026-10-11	$9.01	$27,469,503,193	11 / 15
2026-10-12	$9.01	$27,469,503,193	11 / 15
2026-10-13	$9.01	$27,469,503,193	11 / 15
2026-10-14	$9.01	$27,469,503,193	11 / 15
2026-10-15	$9.01	$27,469,503,193	11 / 15

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings