ResMed (RMD)

NYSEHealth CareMedical - Instruments & SuppliesSnapshot 2026-10-15

$238.97-1.35%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge ResMed’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

13.30 → 13.30 EPS · FY ending Jun 30, 2028 · 14 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 14 to 14; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain gross margin near 62-63%	A primary condition in ResMed's published investment case. The stated target is 62-63% gross margin.	Broken	Gross margin falls below 60% in FY26	Gross margin: 58.84% FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: 62-63% gross margin. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Oct 1, 202658.840417 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Date unavailable Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 7c91020e-260b-4cf7-a0b7-bba4d3aef352. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Continue investing in innovation and digital health	The company invests steadily in innovation and digital health.	Intact	Investment in innovation stalls or digital health growth reverses	Qualitative: Innovation investment advancing (EPS target 12-14%) ResMed targets 12-14% EPS growth driven by GLP-1 demand; RBC upgrades stock on sleep device growth outlook. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. FY 2026 revenue grew 10% to $5.7 billion and non-GAAP diluted EPS increased 17% to $11.17. Management consistently emphasized investing in innovation and scaling digital health capabilities, and the financial results show delivering growth aligned with this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Sustain revenue growth near 11% YoY	A primary condition in ResMed's published investment case. The stated target is >=11% YoY revenue growth.	Broken	YoY revenue growth falls below ~10% next year	Revenue growth: 8.58% FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >=11% YoY revenue growth. The stored target says 2026-Q3; this source reports FY2026-Q4. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 13, 20268.579718 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q4. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. FY 2026 revenue grew 10% to $5.7 billion and non-GAAP diluted EPS increased 17% to $11.17. Management consistently emphasized investing in innovation and scaling digital health capabilities, and the financial results show delivering growth aligned with this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$13.30

Unavailable → $13.30 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$6.19B

$6.39B → $6.19B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$6,390,750,341	3 / 9
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$6,390,750,341	3 / 9
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$6,335,644,914	3 / 9
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$6,335,644,914	3 / 9
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$6,335,644,914	3 / 9
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$6,335,644,914	3 / 9
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$6,335,644,914	3 / 9
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$6,335,644,914	3 / 6
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$6,335,644,914	3 / 6
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$6,335,644,914	3 / 6
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$6,335,644,914	3 / 6
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$6,335,237,625	3 / 6
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$6,335,237,625	3 / 6
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$6,335,237,625	3 / 6
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$6,335,237,625	3 / 6
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$6,335,237,625	3 / 6
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$6,335,236,691	3 / 6
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$6,335,236,691	3 / 6
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$6,335,236,691	3 / 6
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$6,335,236,691	3 / 6
2026-08-15	$13.26	$6,335,236,691	10 / 16
2026-08-16	$13.26	$6,335,236,691	10 / 16
2026-08-17	$13.26	$6,335,236,691	10 / 16
2026-08-18	$13.26	$6,335,236,691	10 / 16
2026-08-19	$13.26	$6,335,236,691	10 / 16
2026-08-20	$13.30	$6,194,148,536	13 / 20
2026-08-21	$13.30	$6,194,148,543	14 / 21
2026-08-22	$13.30	$6,194,148,543	14 / 21
2026-08-23	$13.30	$6,194,148,543	14 / 21
2026-08-24	$13.30	$6,194,148,543	14 / 21
2026-08-25	$13.30	$6,194,148,543	14 / 21
2026-08-26	$13.30	$6,194,148,543	14 / 21
2026-08-27	$13.30	$6,194,148,543	14 / 21
2026-08-28	$13.30	$6,194,148,543	14 / 21
2026-08-29	$13.30	$6,194,148,543	14 / 21
2026-08-30	$13.30	$6,194,148,543	14 / 21
2026-08-31	$13.30	$6,194,148,543	14 / 21
2026-09-01	$13.30	$6,194,148,543	14 / 21
2026-09-02	$13.30	$6,194,148,543	14 / 21
2026-09-03	$13.30	$6,194,148,543	14 / 21
2026-09-04	$13.30	$6,184,530,233	14 / 21
2026-09-05	$13.30	$6,184,530,233	14 / 21
2026-09-06	$13.30	$6,184,530,233	14 / 21
2026-09-07	$13.30	$6,184,530,233	14 / 21
2026-09-08	$13.30	$6,184,530,233	14 / 21
2026-09-09	$13.30	$6,184,530,233	14 / 21
2026-09-10	$13.30	$6,184,530,233	14 / 21
2026-09-11	$13.30	$6,184,530,233	14 / 21
2026-09-12	$13.30	$6,184,515,418	14 / 21
2026-09-13	$13.30	$6,184,515,418	14 / 21
2026-09-14	$13.30	$6,184,515,418	14 / 21
2026-09-15	$13.30	$6,184,515,418	14 / 21
2026-09-16	$13.31	$6,184,515,418	14 / 21
2026-09-17	$13.31	$6,184,515,418	14 / 21
2026-09-18	$13.31	$6,184,515,418	14 / 21
2026-09-19	$13.31	$6,184,515,418	14 / 21
2026-09-20	$13.31	$6,184,515,418	14 / 21
2026-09-21	$13.31	$6,184,515,418	14 / 21
2026-09-22	$13.31	$6,184,515,418	14 / 21
2026-09-23	$13.31	$6,184,515,418	14 / 21
2026-09-24	$13.31	$6,184,515,418	14 / 21
2026-09-25	$13.31	$6,184,506,512	14 / 21
2026-09-26	$13.30	$6,184,913,919	14 / 16
2026-09-27	$13.30	$6,184,913,919	14 / 12
2026-09-28	$13.30	$6,184,913,919	14 / 12
2026-09-29	$13.30	$6,184,913,919	14 / 12
2026-09-30	$13.30	$6,184,913,919	14 / 12
2026-10-01	$13.30	$6,184,913,919	14 / 12
2026-10-02	$13.30	$6,184,632,233	14 / 12
2026-10-03	$13.30	$6,184,632,233	14 / 12
2026-10-04	$13.30	$6,184,632,233	14 / 12
2026-10-05	$13.30	$6,184,632,233	14 / 12
2026-10-06	$13.30	$6,184,632,233	14 / 12
2026-10-07	$13.30	$6,184,632,233	14 / 12
2026-10-08	$13.30	$6,184,632,233	14 / 12
2026-10-09	$13.30	$6,184,613,714	14 / 12
2026-10-10	$13.30	$6,184,613,714	14 / 12
2026-10-11	$13.30	$6,184,613,714	14 / 12
2026-10-12	$13.30	$6,184,613,714	14 / 12
2026-10-13	$13.30	$6,184,615,029	14 / 12
2026-10-14	$13.30	$6,186,171,801	14 / 13
2026-10-15	$13.30	$6,186,171,801	14 / 13

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	12	7	1
2026-06-01	11	8	1
2026-07-01	11	10	1
2026-08-01	8	11	1
2026-09-01	9	11	1
2026-10-01	9	10	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 10 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Mizuho SecuritiesOct 13 · prior Jul 15

$220.00 → $240.00+9.1%

$0$132.00$264.00

1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain gross margin near 62-63%Published status: Broken
Sustain revenue growth near 11% YoYPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-33.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

ResMed outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

RMD represents a durable compounder with a focus on innovation and cost efficiencies. The current thesis state is stable, supported by solid financial results and a commitment to returning capital to shareholders.

What's priced into ResMed

The market appears to have priced in a neutral valuation relative to peers, with a slight premium. There is a low expectations gap, suggesting that RMD's current performance is generally in line with what investors anticipate.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management has shown strong execution in recent quarters, with revenue and earnings growth reflecting their priorities. However, there is a moderate risk due to the potential for economic downturns that could impact performance.

What ResMed hinges on

Key scenarios include the impact of any guidance cuts from management, which could negatively affect sentiment. Additionally, the performance of sector leaders could influence RMD's trajectory positively or negatively.