Relay Therapeutics, Inc. (RLAY)

NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-10-23

$18.18-0.87%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Relay Therapeutics, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	7.1M
EPS	—	-0.374
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	11.16M
EPS	—	-1.602
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	19.54M
EPS	—	-1.61

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Advance zovegalisib plus atirmociclib into Phase 3 trials for PI3Kα-mutated breast cancer	Relay Therapeutics is advancing its drug zovegalisib to Phase 3 trials for breast cancer.	Improving	Phase 3 development not initiated by 2026-Q4	Phase 3 status: Not yet initiated (Target: By 2026-Q4) May 2026 news highlights strong Phase 2 data and analyst upgrades, but no explicit Phase 3 trial start announcement is present in the evidence. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management reiterated ongoing execution of the Phase 3 ReDiscover-2 trial and plans to initiate a Phase 3 frontline trial of zovegalisib plus atirmociclib in early 2027. The company reported $3.0M revenue in 2026-Q1 and net losses around $73M, consistent with clinical-stage development. The trajectory shows continued focus and execution on advancing zovegalisib to Phase 3 trials. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Increase revenue streams above $3 million quarterly	A primary condition in Relay Therapeutics, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Quarterly revenue above $5 million by 2026-Q4.	Broken	Quarterly revenue remains below $3 million by 2026-Q4	Revenue: $350,000 FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Quarterly revenue above $5 million by 2026-Q4. The stored target says 2026-Q4; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 6, 2026350,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 3bf2ab8f-2457-4808-b713-b4f0317c1f7f. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Manage operating losses near negative $78.6 million in 2026-Q1	The company aims to manage operating losses near negative $78.6 million in 2026-Q1.	Intact	Operating loss worsens beyond negative $80 million next 4 quarters	Operating income: $-90.824M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating loss no worse than negative $80 million next 4 quarters. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 2026-90,824,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 3bf2ab8f-2457-4808-b713-b4f0317c1f7f. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 quarters including 2026-Q1, 2025-Q4, and 2025-Q3. The company reported net losses of $73.3M in 2026-Q1, $54.9M in 2025-Q4, and $74.1M in 2025-Q3, reflecting ongoing investment in clinical programs. Operating expenses remain high but relatively stable, indicating management is maintaining cost discipline while advancing development. The trajectory shows consistent management of operating losses. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$-1.61

$-1.64 → $-1.61 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.02B

$0.01B → $0.02B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$-1.64	$14,501,100	8 / 11
2026-07-25	$-1.64	$14,501,100	8 / 11
2026-07-26	$-1.64	$14,501,100	8 / 11
2026-07-27	$-1.64	$14,501,100	8 / 11
2026-07-28	$-1.64	$14,501,100	8 / 11
2026-07-29	$-1.64	$14,501,100	8 / 11
2026-07-30	$-1.64	$14,501,100	8 / 11
2026-07-31	$-1.64	$14,501,100	8 / 11
2026-08-01	$-1.60	$15,990,000	7 / 7
2026-08-02	$-1.64	$14,501,100	8 / 11
2026-08-03	$-1.60	$15,990,000	7 / 7
2026-08-04	$-1.60	$15,990,000	7 / 7
2026-08-05	$-1.64	$14,501,100	8 / 11
2026-08-06	$-1.64	$14,501,100	8 / 11
2026-08-08	$-1.61	$14,501,100	8 / 11
2026-08-09	$-1.61	$14,501,100	8 / 11
2026-08-10	$-1.60	$15,990,000	7 / 7
2026-08-12	$-1.64	$16,968,010	11 / 9
2026-08-13	$-1.60	$15,990,000	7 / 7
2026-08-14	$-1.60	$15,990,000	7 / 7
2026-08-15	$-1.60	$15,990,000	7 / 7
2026-08-16	$-1.60	$15,990,000	8 / 7
2026-08-17	$-1.60	$15,990,000	8 / 7
2026-08-18	$-1.60	$15,990,000	8 / 8
2026-08-19	$-1.60	$15,990,000	8 / 8
2026-08-20	$-1.62	$18,813,869	9 / 8
2026-08-21	$-1.62	$17,912,714	9 / 8
2026-08-22	$-1.62	$17,912,714	10 / 9
2026-08-23	$-1.62	$17,912,714	10 / 9
2026-08-24	$-1.62	$17,912,714	10 / 9
2026-08-25	$-1.62	$17,912,714	10 / 9
2026-08-26	$-1.62	$17,912,714	10 / 9
2026-08-27	$-1.62	$17,912,714	10 / 9
2026-08-28	$-1.62	$17,912,714	10 / 9
2026-08-29	$-1.62	$17,910,408	10 / 9
2026-08-30	$-1.62	$17,910,408	10 / 9
2026-08-31	$-1.62	$17,910,408	10 / 9
2026-09-01	$-1.62	$17,910,408	10 / 9
2026-09-02	$-1.62	$17,910,408	10 / 9
2026-09-03	$-1.62	$17,910,408	10 / 9
2026-09-04	$-1.62	$17,910,408	10 / 9
2026-09-05	$-1.62	$17,910,408	10 / 9
2026-09-06	$-1.62	$17,910,408	10 / 9
2026-09-07	$-1.62	$17,910,408	10 / 9
2026-09-08	$-1.62	$17,910,408	10 / 9
2026-09-09	$-1.62	$17,910,408	10 / 9
2026-09-10	$-1.62	$17,910,408	10 / 9
2026-09-11	$-1.62	$17,910,408	10 / 9
2026-09-12	$-1.62	$17,910,408	10 / 9
2026-09-13	$-1.62	$17,910,408	10 / 9
2026-09-14	$-1.62	$17,910,408	10 / 9
2026-09-15	$-1.62	$17,910,408	10 / 9
2026-09-16	$-1.62	$17,910,408	10 / 9
2026-09-17	$-1.62	$17,910,408	10 / 9
2026-09-18	$-1.62	$17,910,408	10 / 9
2026-09-19	$-1.62	$17,910,408	10 / 9
2026-09-20	$-1.62	$17,910,408	10 / 9
2026-09-21	$-1.62	$17,910,408	10 / 9
2026-09-22	$-1.62	$17,910,408	10 / 9
2026-09-23	$-1.62	$17,910,408	10 / 9
2026-09-24	$-1.62	$17,910,408	10 / 9
2026-09-25	$-1.62	$17,910,408	10 / 9
2026-09-26	$-1.62	$17,910,408	10 / 9
2026-09-27	$-1.62	$17,910,408	10 / 9
2026-09-28	$-1.62	$17,910,408	10 / 9
2026-09-29	$-1.62	$17,910,408	10 / 9
2026-09-30	$-1.62	$17,910,408	10 / 9
2026-10-01	$-1.61	$19,538,627	9 / 8
2026-10-02	$-1.61	$19,538,627	9 / 8
2026-10-03	$-1.61	$19,538,627	9 / 8
2026-10-04	$-1.61	$19,538,627	9 / 8
2026-10-05	$-1.61	$19,538,627	9 / 8
2026-10-06	$-1.61	$19,538,627	9 / 8
2026-10-07	$-1.61	$19,538,627	9 / 8
2026-10-08	$-1.61	$19,538,627	9 / 8
2026-10-09	$-1.61	$19,541,142	9 / 8
2026-10-10	$-1.61	$19,541,142	9 / 8
2026-10-11	$-1.61	$19,541,142	9 / 8
2026-10-12	$-1.61	$19,541,142	9 / 8
2026-10-13	$-1.61	$19,541,142	9 / 8
2026-10-14	$-1.61	$19,541,142	9 / 8
2026-10-15	$-1.61	$19,541,142	9 / 8
2026-10-16	$-1.61	$19,541,142	9 / 8
2026-10-17	$-1.61	$19,541,142	9 / 8
2026-10-18	$-1.61	$19,541,142	9 / 8
2026-10-19	$-1.61	$19,541,142	9 / 8
2026-10-20	$-1.61	$19,541,142	9 / 8
2026-10-21	$-1.61	$19,541,142	9 / 8
2026-10-22	$-1.61	$19,541,142	9 / 8
2026-10-23	$-1.61	$19,541,142	9 / 8
2026-10-24	$-1.61	$19,541,142	9 / 8

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	13	1
2026-06-01	13	0
2026-07-01	14	0
2026-08-01	14	0
2026-09-01	14	0
2026-10-01	13	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 13 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Increase revenue streams above $3 million quarterlyPublished status: Broken
Manage operating losses near negative $78.6 million in 2026-Q1Operating income: $-90.824M

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-28.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Relay Therapeutics, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is speculative clinical-stage growth, not an established earnings compounder. The multi-year view is in a watch state: management is advancing several clinical programs, but financial performance remains weak and risk is elevated.

What's priced into Relay Therapeutics, Inc.

The valuation model shows RLAY at a 36.6% premium to peers, while the expectations gap is modestly negative and model confidence is low. The priced-in assessment is tagged justified, with no fragility gates fired, so the evidence does not point to unusually fragile expectations.

What the fundamentals likely do

Over the multi-year horizon, results depend on clinical progress rather than established earnings: the company reported $3.0 million in revenue and net losses around $73 million in 2026-Q1. Management has kept advancing zovegalisib programs, including plans for a Phase 3 frontline trial in early 2027, but progress is mixed and recent financial performance trails the industry cohort. Near term, the next report carries elevated risk, with a 39% estimated miss probability and guidance changes worth watching.

What Relay Therapeutics, Inc. hinges on

A favorable case depends on continued trial progress, including the planned Phase 3 start and further evidence from the vascular-anomalies program. The unfavorable case includes a guidance cut or continued weakening in jobs data, which could weigh on cyclical and Healthcare names. Healthcare sector momentum may help if bellwethers continue to report strong results and raise guidance.