Regions Financial Corporation (RF)

NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-10-15

$27.45+0.51%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Regions Financial Corporation’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

2.85 → 2.85 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 16 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 15 to 16; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
earnings per share	It earns about $2.6 per share in 2026.	Intact	EPS falls below $2.3 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $0.64 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=2.3 USD per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 20260.64 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: ff2bdc29-a309-47ee-ab58-0dcc04ec719a. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
net interest margin	A supporting condition in Regions Financial Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is maintain margin near 0.4-0.5%.	Improving	net interest margin falls below 0.4% in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
growth in non-interest income	A supporting condition in Regions Financial Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is grow non-interest income steadily.	Intact	non-interest income growth stalls or declines next year	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
total revenue growth	A primary condition in Regions Financial Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is >=10% YoY.	Broken	YoY revenue growth falls below 7% in FY26	Revenue growth: -2.02% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=10% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 2026-2.017937 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: ff2bdc29-a309-47ee-ab58-0dcc04ec719a. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$2.85

$2.85 → $2.85 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$8.20B

$8.22B → $8.20B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.85	$8,220,339,169	16 / 6
2026-07-25	$2.85	$8,220,339,169	16 / 6
2026-07-26	$2.85	$8,183,414,411	15 / 6
2026-07-27	$2.85	$8,220,339,169	16 / 6
2026-07-28	$2.85	$8,220,339,169	16 / 6
2026-07-29	$2.85	$8,220,339,169	16 / 6
2026-07-30	$2.85	$8,220,339,169	16 / 6
2026-07-31	$2.85	$8,179,510,451	15 / 6
2026-08-01	$2.85	$8,179,510,451	15 / 6
2026-08-02	$2.84	$8,220,339,169	16 / 6
2026-08-03	$2.85	$8,179,510,451	15 / 6
2026-08-04	$2.85	$8,179,510,451	15 / 6
2026-08-05	$2.84	$8,220,339,169	16 / 6
2026-08-06	$2.85	$8,179,510,451	15 / 6
2026-08-08	$2.84	$8,220,339,169	16 / 6
2026-08-09	$2.84	$8,220,339,169	16 / 6
2026-08-10	$2.85	$8,179,510,451	15 / 6
2026-08-12	$2.84	$8,220,339,169	16 / 6
2026-08-13	$2.84	$8,220,339,169	16 / 6
2026-08-14	$2.85	$8,179,510,451	15 / 6
2026-08-15	$2.85	$8,179,510,451	15 / 6
2026-08-16	$2.85	$8,179,510,451	15 / 6
2026-08-17	$2.85	$8,179,510,451	15 / 6
2026-08-18	$2.85	$8,179,510,451	15 / 6
2026-08-19	$2.85	$8,179,510,451	15 / 6
2026-08-20	$2.85	$8,181,733,079	15 / 6
2026-08-21	$2.85	$8,181,733,079	15 / 6
2026-08-22	$2.85	$8,181,733,079	15 / 6
2026-08-23	$2.85	$8,181,733,079	15 / 6
2026-08-24	$2.85	$8,181,733,079	15 / 6
2026-08-25	$2.85	$8,181,733,079	15 / 6
2026-08-26	$2.85	$8,181,733,079	15 / 6
2026-08-27	$2.85	$8,181,733,079	15 / 6
2026-08-28	$2.85	$8,181,733,079	15 / 6
2026-08-29	$2.85	$8,181,733,079	15 / 6
2026-08-30	$2.85	$8,181,733,079	15 / 6
2026-08-31	$2.85	$8,181,733,079	15 / 6
2026-09-01	$2.85	$8,181,733,079	15 / 6
2026-09-02	$2.85	$8,181,733,079	15 / 6
2026-09-03	$2.85	$8,181,733,079	15 / 6
2026-09-04	$2.85	$8,181,733,079	15 / 6
2026-09-05	$2.85	$8,181,733,079	15 / 6
2026-09-06	$2.85	$8,181,733,079	15 / 6
2026-09-07	$2.85	$8,181,733,079	15 / 6
2026-09-08	$2.85	$8,181,733,079	15 / 6
2026-09-09	$2.85	$8,182,889,343	15 / 6
2026-09-10	$2.85	$8,188,423,283	15 / 6
2026-09-11	$2.85	$8,193,599,130	15 / 6
2026-09-12	$2.85	$8,193,599,130	15 / 6
2026-09-13	$2.85	$8,193,599,130	15 / 6
2026-09-14	$2.85	$8,193,599,130	15 / 6
2026-09-15	$2.85	$8,193,599,130	15 / 6
2026-09-16	$2.85	$8,193,599,130	15 / 6
2026-09-17	$2.85	$8,193,599,130	15 / 6
2026-09-18	$2.85	$8,193,599,130	15 / 6
2026-09-19	$2.85	$8,193,599,130	15 / 6
2026-09-20	$2.85	$8,193,599,130	15 / 6
2026-09-21	$2.85	$8,193,599,130	15 / 6
2026-09-22	$2.85	$8,193,599,130	15 / 6
2026-09-23	$2.85	$8,193,599,130	15 / 6
2026-09-24	$2.86	$8,196,282,201	15 / 6
2026-09-25	$2.86	$8,196,311,613	16 / 6
2026-09-26	$2.85	$8,195,451,542	16 / 6
2026-09-27	$2.85	$8,195,451,542	16 / 6
2026-09-28	$2.85	$8,195,451,542	16 / 6
2026-09-29	$2.85	$8,195,239,430	16 / 6
2026-09-30	$2.85	$8,195,239,430	16 / 6
2026-10-01	$2.85	$8,196,415,901	16 / 6
2026-10-02	$2.85	$8,196,415,901	16 / 6
2026-10-03	$2.85	$8,194,345,311	16 / 6
2026-10-04	$2.85	$8,193,313,620	16 / 6
2026-10-05	$2.85	$8,193,290,091	16 / 6
2026-10-06	$2.85	$8,193,290,091	16 / 6
2026-10-07	$2.86	$8,190,950,183	16 / 6
2026-10-08	$2.85	$8,190,950,183	16 / 6
2026-10-09	$2.85	$8,195,525,997	16 / 7
2026-10-10	$2.85	$8,195,525,997	16 / 7
2026-10-11	$2.85	$8,195,525,997	16 / 7
2026-10-12	$2.85	$8,195,525,997	16 / 7
2026-10-13	$2.85	$8,195,525,997	16 / 7
2026-10-14	$2.85	$8,195,525,997	16 / 7
2026-10-15	$2.85	$8,195,525,997	16 / 7

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	8	11	3
2026-06-01	8	11	3
2026-07-01	8	12	4
2026-08-01	6	13	4
2026-09-01	6	13	4
2026-10-01	6	14	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 14 Hold · 3 Sell / Strong Sell

1 upgrades0 downgrades6 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 7 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Cantor FitzgeraldOct 14 · prior Jul 21

$35.00 → $32.00-8.6%

Truist FinancialSep 23 · prior Jul 21

$34.00 → $31.00-8.8%

$0$19.25$38.50

0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

earnings per shareDiluted EPS: $0.64 per share
net interest marginDirect metric needs a verified mapping
growth in non-interest incomeQualitative condition
total revenue growthPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Oct 16, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-18.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Regions Financial Corporation outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a stable, long-term thesis with a focus on steady growth in loans and deposits. The current state reflects a watchful approach due to recent weak financial performance, despite a robust earnings quality and stable management.

What's priced into Regions Financial Corporation

The market appears to have priced in a low expectations gap, suggesting that investors are not overly optimistic about RF's near-term performance. Valuation is considered cheap compared to peers, indicating that the stock may be undervalued relative to its industry.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to show continued progress in growing loans and non-interest income, driven by management's focus on high-quality business lending and wealth management. However, recent financial performance has been weak, which could pose risks in the near term.

What Regions Financial Corporation hinges on

The thesis hinges on several factors, including the potential for RF to maintain or improve guidance in upcoming calls, the performance of sector bellwethers, and the impact of Federal Reserve interest rate decisions. Any cuts in guidance or shifts in the economic environment could negatively affect the outlook.