ROBLOX CORPORATION (RBLX)

NYSECommunication ServicesElectronic Gaming & MultimediaSnapshot 2026-10-23

$52.89-1.98%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge ROBLOX CORPORATION’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	1.99B
EPS	—	-0.417
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	6.95B
EPS	—	-1.456
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	7.82B
EPS	—	-1.227

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Increase free cash flow to $1.1B to $1.3B in 2026	Free cash flow should reach $1.1B to $1.3B this year.	Intact	free cash flow falls below $1.0B in FY26	Free cash flow: $294M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $1.1B to $1.3B free cash flow. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 2026294,000,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Free cash flow increased from $596 million in 2026-Q1 to $294 million in 2026-Q2, showing strong cash generation despite seasonal variation. Management expects full-year 2026 free cash flow between $1.1 billion and $1.3 billion, consistent with the stated priority and indicating progress toward this target. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Achieve 20% to 25% revenue growth in 2026	A primary condition in ROBLOX CORPORATION's published investment case. The stated target is 20% to 25% growth in 2026.	Improving	YoY revenue growth falls below 15% in FY26	Revenue growth: 35.93% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 20% to 25% growth in 2026. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 202635.933308 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 5b309252-49f5-4bf5-8e25-af63fc4e9b3a. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $1.035 billion in 2025-Q1 to $1.5 billion in 2026-Q2, representing year-over-year growth of 36% to 39% in recent quarters. Management's guidance expects full-year 2026 revenue growth of 20% to 25%, indicating delivery on this priority with strong topline growth. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Implement $3 billion share repurchase program	The company started a $3 billion share buyback program.	Intact	Buyback program is canceled or materially delayed	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Newly stated in 2026-Q2. Management announced a $3 billion share repurchase program in May 2026. No share repurchase amounts have been reported in the financials yet, so delivery is pending. This priority is recent and the trajectory is to be determined. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$-1.23

$-1.12 → $-1.23 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$7.82B

$8.94B → $7.82B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$-1.12	$8,938,817,900	25 / 27
2026-07-25	$-1.12	$8,938,817,900	25 / 27
2026-07-26	$-1.13	$8,845,782,666	20 / 19
2026-07-27	$-1.13	$8,845,014,109	20 / 19
2026-07-28	$-1.12	$8,938,035,680	25 / 27
2026-07-29	$-1.12	$8,947,960,130	25 / 26
2026-07-30	$-1.12	$8,846,314,109	19 / 20
2026-07-31	$-1.11	$8,947,960,130	25 / 26
2026-08-01	$-1.14	$8,805,424,824	19 / 20
2026-08-02	$-1.15	$8,208,551,090	19 / 19
2026-08-03	$-1.15	$8,208,551,090	19 / 19
2026-08-04	$-1.14	$8,245,668,770	25 / 24
2026-08-05	$-1.17	$8,080,963,580	26 / 25
2026-08-06	$-1.15	$8,208,551,090	19 / 19
2026-08-07	$-1.15	$8,208,551,090	19 / 19
2026-08-08	$-1.17	$8,036,083,580	26 / 25
2026-08-09	$-1.17	$8,036,083,580	26 / 25
2026-08-10	$-1.15	$8,208,551,090	19 / 19
2026-08-12	$-1.17	$7,963,813,500	26 / 25
2026-08-13	$-1.15	$8,208,551,090	19 / 19
2026-08-14	$-1.15	$8,208,551,090	19 / 19
2026-08-15	$-1.15	$8,208,551,090	20 / 19
2026-08-16	$-1.15	$8,208,551,090	20 / 19
2026-08-17	$-1.15	$8,208,551,090	20 / 19
2026-08-18	$-1.15	$8,208,551,090	20 / 19
2026-08-19	$-1.15	$8,208,551,090	20 / 19
2026-08-20	$-1.19	$7,879,062,245	20 / 19
2026-08-21	$-1.19	$7,879,062,245	20 / 19
2026-08-22	$-1.19	$7,879,062,245	20 / 19
2026-08-23	$-1.19	$7,880,680,024	20 / 19
2026-08-24	$-1.19	$7,880,680,024	20 / 19
2026-08-25	$-1.20	$7,820,295,409	19 / 19
2026-08-26	$-1.20	$7,820,296,055	19 / 19
2026-08-27	$-1.20	$7,820,296,055	19 / 19
2026-08-28	$-1.20	$7,820,296,055	19 / 19
2026-08-29	$-1.20	$7,820,296,055	19 / 19
2026-08-30	$-1.20	$7,820,296,055	19 / 19
2026-08-31	$-1.20	$7,820,296,055	19 / 19
2026-09-01	$-1.20	$7,820,296,055	19 / 19
2026-09-02	$-1.20	$7,820,296,055	19 / 19
2026-09-03	$-1.20	$7,820,296,055	19 / 19
2026-09-04	$-1.20	$7,820,296,055	19 / 19
2026-09-05	$-1.20	$7,820,296,055	19 / 19
2026-09-06	$-1.20	$7,820,296,055	19 / 19
2026-09-07	$-1.20	$7,820,296,055	19 / 19
2026-09-08	$-1.20	$7,820,296,055	19 / 19
2026-09-09	$-1.20	$7,820,296,055	19 / 19
2026-09-10	$-1.20	$7,820,279,757	19 / 19
2026-09-11	$-1.20	$7,820,279,757	20 / 19
2026-09-12	$-1.20	$7,820,279,757	20 / 19
2026-09-13	$-1.20	$7,820,279,757	20 / 19
2026-09-14	$-1.20	$7,820,279,757	20 / 19
2026-09-15	$-1.20	$7,827,971,641	20 / 19
2026-09-16	$-1.19	$7,854,840,180	20 / 19
2026-09-17	$-1.19	$7,854,840,180	20 / 19
2026-09-18	$-1.19	$7,854,840,180	20 / 19
2026-09-19	$-1.19	$7,854,840,180	20 / 19
2026-09-20	$-1.19	$7,854,840,180	20 / 19
2026-09-21	$-1.19	$7,854,840,180	20 / 19
2026-09-22	$-1.19	$7,854,840,180	20 / 19
2026-09-23	$-1.19	$7,854,840,180	20 / 19
2026-09-24	$-1.19	$7,854,840,180	20 / 19
2026-09-25	$-1.20	$7,851,859,411	20 / 19
2026-09-26	$-1.20	$7,851,859,411	20 / 19
2026-09-27	$-1.20	$7,851,859,411	20 / 19
2026-09-28	$-1.20	$7,851,859,411	20 / 19
2026-09-29	$-1.20	$7,833,375,709	20 / 19
2026-09-30	$-1.20	$7,833,375,709	20 / 19
2026-10-01	$-1.20	$7,833,375,709	20 / 19
2026-10-02	$-1.21	$7,834,452,632	20 / 19
2026-10-03	$-1.21	$7,834,452,632	20 / 19
2026-10-04	$-1.21	$7,834,452,632	20 / 19
2026-10-05	$-1.21	$7,834,452,632	20 / 19
2026-10-06	$-1.21	$7,834,452,632	20 / 19
2026-10-07	$-1.21	$7,834,452,632	20 / 19
2026-10-08	$-1.21	$7,834,452,632	20 / 19
2026-10-09	$-1.21	$7,834,449,205	20 / 19
2026-10-10	$-1.21	$7,834,449,205	20 / 19
2026-10-11	$-1.21	$7,834,449,205	20 / 19
2026-10-12	$-1.21	$7,834,449,205	20 / 19
2026-10-13	$-1.21	$7,834,449,205	20 / 19
2026-10-14	$-1.22	$7,833,547,997	20 / 19
2026-10-15	$-1.23	$7,833,547,997	20 / 19
2026-10-16	$-1.23	$7,797,894,151	20 / 19
2026-10-17	$-1.23	$7,797,894,151	20 / 19
2026-10-18	$-1.23	$7,797,894,151	20 / 19
2026-10-19	$-1.23	$7,797,894,151	20 / 19
2026-10-20	$-1.23	$7,797,894,151	20 / 19
2026-10-21	$-1.23	$7,797,894,151	20 / 19
2026-10-22	$-1.23	$7,797,894,151	20 / 19
2026-10-23	$-1.23	$7,797,894,151	20 / 19
2026-10-24	$-1.23	$7,818,916,654	20 / 19

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	27	14	1
2026-06-01	22	14	0
2026-07-01	23	12	2
2026-08-01	23	15	2
2026-09-01	18	16	3
2026-10-01	17	15	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 17 Buy / Strong Buy · 15 Hold · 3 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades1 downgrades4 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 5 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

UBSOct 14 · prior Sep 21

$40.00 → $53.00+32.5%

D.A. DavidsonOct 14 · prior Jul 31

$40.00 → $50.00+25.0%

$0$29.15$58.30

2 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Increase free cash flow to $1.1B to $1.3B in 2026Free cash flow: $294M
Achieve 20% to 25% revenue growth in 2026Revenue growth: 35.93%
Implement $3 billion share repurchase programDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-73.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

ROBLOX CORPORATION outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

RBLX is a growth business whose thesis depends on sustaining expansion while improving its financial profile. Management execution appears stable, and its stated revenue and free cash flow priorities are on track, but the company remains loss-making and recent performance trails its industry cohort.

What's priced into ROBLOX CORPORATION

The evidence describes RBLX as trading at a sizable premium to peers, with valuation supported by optionality, or potential future opportunities. The expectations gap is close to neutral, and the priced-in assessment is justified with low fragility, though valuation-model confidence is low.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, management expects 2026 revenue growth of 20% to 25% and free cash flow of $1.1 billion to $1.3 billion; recent revenue growth has been strong, while quarterly cash flow has varied. The next-call guidance is a key risk, and the announced share repurchase program has not yet been reflected in reported repurchases. Momentum has weakened, despite recent earnings beats, and the sector backdrop is a headwind.

What ROBLOX CORPORATION hinges on

The multi-year thesis hinges on continued revenue growth, delivery on the full-year cash-flow goal, and whether recent momentum improves. A guidance cut would weaken the setup; rate cuts or continued strong results and guidance from sector peers would provide favorable conditions.