Ryder (R)
NYSEIndustrialsRental & Leasing ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-09
$244.75-0.87%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsRental & Leasing ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-09
Warn: Management is running behind on a stated commitment.
Ryder is raising its EPS guidance to $14.05 - $14.8 for 2026. Free cash flow guidance is maintained at $700M - $800M. The company has beaten EPS estimates recently and trades at a cheaper PE than peers. Analysts expect about 6% revenue growth next year.
Revenue growth is weak, with a slight decline in Q1 2026 versus Q1 2025. Free cash flow progress is limited, with operating cash down year-over-year. The sector faces headwinds that could pressure Ryder's results.
The price is about 6% above our fair value near $252, which is 10% below the Street median. The market expects roughly 6% revenue growth, which aligns with consensus estimates. Our view is slightly more conservative than the Street.
Breaks if: EPS guidance falls below $14.05 for FY 2026
Raise full-year 2026 EPS guidance reflecting stronger than expected performance and modest improvement in used vehicle market conditions.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This is a durable compounder with a focus on consistent earnings growth. The current thesis state is intact, supported by recent earnings beats and management's strategic initiatives.
The valuation is considered cheap compared to peers, with an expectations gap indicating that the market may not fully recognize the potential for continued earnings growth. The current pricing reflects a low level of fragility, suggesting stability in the face of sector headwinds.
Fundamentals are expected to show continued earnings growth, as management is on track with strategic initiatives and has raised EPS guidance. However, there is a moderate risk of missing expectations, given the high-miss-rate nature of the industry.
The long-term thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like URI, SUNB, and UHAL. If these companies continue to perform well, it could support R's growth; conversely, if they miss or guide lower, it could negatively impact R.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. The latest earnings beat supports earnings growth initiatives. However, R's recent financial performance standing fell from the robust 65th to the 48th percentile of its sector. This change indicates a decline in the reason to own the stock.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. EPS guidance was raised from a range of $13.45 - $14.45 in 2025-Q4 to $14.40 - $14.80 in 2026-Q2, reflecting stronger than expected performance. The trajectory matches management's stated priority of increasing EPS guidance.
“Comparable EPS (non-GAAP) range raised to $14.40 - $14.80.”
“Comparable EPS (non-GAAP) increased to $14.05 - $14.80.”
“Comparable EPS (non-GAAP) of $13.45 - $14.45 for full year 2026.”
Breaks if: Free Cash Flow falls below $700M for FY 2026
Sustain free cash flow guidance of $700 million to $800 million for 2026 to support profitable growth and capital returns.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Free cash flow guidance for 2026 has been consistently maintained at $700 million to $800 million, supporting management's focus on capital deployment and shareholder returns. The trajectory is stable and consistent with stated guidance.
“Free cash flow (non-GAAP) unchanged at $700 million - $800 million.”
“Free cash flow (non-GAAP) unchanged at $700 million - $800 million.”
“Free cash flow (non-GAAP) of $700 million - $800 million for 2026.”
Breaks if: Revenue growth falls below 3% in FY 2026
Target 3% total revenue growth for full year 2026, primarily driven by Supply Chain Solutions segment.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Total revenue grew 5% year-over-year in 2026-Q2, exceeding the 3% full-year growth target. Operating revenue growth of 3% is primarily driven by Supply Chain Solutions, consistent with management's stated priority.
“Operating revenue (non-GAAP) growth remains at 3%, primarily driven by SCS.”
“Operating revenue (non-GAAP) growth remains at 3%, primarily driven by SCS.”
“Operating revenue (non-GAAP) increase of 3%, primarily driven by SCS.”
Overall, R's outlook remains stable, but investors should monitor sector trends closely. Not investment advice.