D-Wave Quantum, Inc. (QBTS)

NYSEInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-10-23

$11.66+0.26%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge D-Wave Quantum, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	32.16M
EPS	—	-0.056
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	42.46M
EPS	—	-0.296
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	80.83M
EPS	—	-0.376

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Utilize $100M CHIPS Act funding to accelerate quantum system development	D-Wave has secured $100M in CHIPS Act funding to speed development.	Improving	Funding utilization stalls or is materially delayed in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Form new strategic partnerships to advance quantum applications	Strategic partnerships are expanding, supporting future growth.	Improving	No new partnerships formed or announced in FY26	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 2 quarters (2026-Q1 and 2026-Q2). Bookings surged from $2.9M in first half 2025 to $35.5M in first half 2026 (+1,120%), driven by new agreements including with Fortune 100 companies. Revenue remained flat at $3.1M in 2026-Q2 versus prior year quarter. Management is delivering strong bookings growth and expanding customer base, though revenue growth is limited so far. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Reduce net losses and improve EPS trajectory	A primary condition in D-Wave Quantum, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is EPS loss narrows from -$0.31 in FY26 toward break-even by FY27.	Broken	EPS loss worsens beyond -$0.31 in FY26 or FY27	Diluted EPS: $-0.13 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS loss narrows from -$0.31 in FY26 toward break-even by FY27. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 2026-0.13 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 82d8b3d2-3c8d-44c5-8834-0ea1b3a12a70. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Grow revenue above $30M in FY26	A primary condition in D-Wave Quantum, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $30M revenue in FY26.	Intact	Revenue falls below $30M in FY26	Revenue: $3.076M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $30M revenue in FY26. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 20263,076,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 82d8b3d2-3c8d-44c5-8834-0ea1b3a12a70. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$-0.38

$-0.40 → $-0.38 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.08B

$0.09B → $0.08B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$-0.40	$85,776,170	14 / 15
2026-07-25	$-0.40	$85,776,170	14 / 15
2026-07-26	$-0.40	$85,776,170	14 / 15
2026-07-27	$-0.37	$85,751,700	9 / 12
2026-07-28	$-0.37	$85,751,700	9 / 12
2026-07-29	$-0.37	$85,751,700	10 / 12
2026-07-30	$-0.37	$85,751,700	10 / 12
2026-07-31	$-0.37	$85,751,700	10 / 12
2026-08-01	$-0.37	$85,751,700	10 / 12
2026-08-02	$-0.39	$85,796,530	15 / 16
2026-08-03	$-0.39	$85,796,530	15 / 16
2026-08-04	$-0.39	$85,796,530	15 / 16
2026-08-05	$-0.39	$85,828,690	15 / 16
2026-08-06	$-0.37	$85,775,033	10 / 12
2026-08-07	$-0.39	$85,809,600	10 / 12
2026-08-08	$-0.39	$84,889,310	14 / 16
2026-08-09	$-0.39	$84,889,310	14 / 16
2026-08-10	$-0.39	$84,889,310	14 / 16
2026-08-12	$-0.39	$85,809,600	10 / 12
2026-08-13	$-0.39	$85,809,600	10 / 12
2026-08-14	$-0.39	$85,809,600	10 / 12
2026-08-15	$-0.39	$85,809,600	10 / 12
2026-08-16	$-0.39	$85,809,600	10 / 12
2026-08-17	$-0.39	$85,809,600	10 / 12
2026-08-18	$-0.39	$85,809,600	10 / 12
2026-08-19	$-0.39	$85,809,600	10 / 12
2026-08-20	$-0.38	$80,971,000	10 / 12
2026-08-21	$-0.38	$80,971,000	10 / 12
2026-08-22	$-0.38	$80,384,471	10 / 12
2026-08-23	$-0.38	$80,384,471	10 / 13
2026-08-24	$-0.38	$80,384,471	11 / 13
2026-08-25	$-0.38	$80,384,471	11 / 13
2026-08-26	$-0.38	$80,384,471	11 / 13
2026-08-27	$-0.38	$80,384,471	11 / 13
2026-08-28	$-0.38	$80,384,471	11 / 13
2026-08-29	$-0.38	$80,368,447	11 / 13
2026-08-30	$-0.38	$80,833,153	11 / 13
2026-08-31	$-0.38	$80,833,153	11 / 13
2026-09-01	$-0.38	$80,833,153	11 / 13
2026-09-02	$-0.38	$80,833,153	11 / 13
2026-09-03	$-0.38	$80,833,153	11 / 13
2026-09-04	$-0.38	$80,833,153	11 / 13
2026-09-05	$-0.38	$80,833,153	11 / 13
2026-09-06	$-0.38	$80,833,153	11 / 13
2026-09-07	$-0.38	$80,833,153	11 / 13
2026-09-08	$-0.38	$80,833,153	11 / 13
2026-09-09	$-0.38	$80,833,153	11 / 13
2026-09-10	$-0.38	$80,833,153	11 / 13
2026-09-11	$-0.38	$80,833,153	11 / 13
2026-09-12	$-0.38	$80,833,153	11 / 13
2026-09-13	$-0.38	$80,833,153	11 / 13
2026-09-14	$-0.38	$80,833,153	11 / 13
2026-09-15	$-0.38	$80,833,153	11 / 13
2026-09-16	$-0.38	$80,833,153	11 / 13
2026-09-17	$-0.38	$80,833,153	11 / 13
2026-09-18	$-0.38	$80,833,153	11 / 13
2026-09-19	$-0.38	$80,833,153	11 / 13
2026-09-20	$-0.38	$80,833,153	11 / 13
2026-09-21	$-0.38	$80,833,153	11 / 13
2026-09-22	$-0.38	$80,833,153	11 / 13
2026-09-23	$-0.38	$80,832,565	11 / 13
2026-09-24	$-0.38	$80,832,565	11 / 13
2026-09-25	$-0.38	$80,832,565	11 / 13
2026-09-26	$-0.38	$80,832,565	11 / 13
2026-09-27	$-0.38	$80,832,565	11 / 13
2026-09-28	$-0.38	$80,832,565	11 / 13
2026-09-29	$-0.38	$80,832,565	11 / 13
2026-09-30	$-0.38	$80,832,565	11 / 13
2026-10-01	$-0.38	$81,009,035	11 / 13
2026-10-02	$-0.38	$80,832,565	11 / 13
2026-10-03	$-0.38	$81,009,035	11 / 13
2026-10-04	$-0.38	$80,832,565	11 / 13
2026-10-05	$-0.38	$80,832,565	11 / 13
2026-10-06	$-0.38	$80,832,565	11 / 13
2026-10-07	$-0.38	$80,832,565	11 / 13
2026-10-08	$-0.38	$80,832,565	11 / 13
2026-10-09	$-0.38	$80,835,271	11 / 13
2026-10-10	$-0.38	$80,835,271	11 / 13
2026-10-11	$-0.38	$80,835,271	11 / 13
2026-10-12	$-0.38	$80,835,271	11 / 13
2026-10-13	$-0.38	$80,835,271	11 / 13
2026-10-14	$-0.38	$80,835,271	11 / 13
2026-10-15	$-0.38	$80,835,271	11 / 13
2026-10-16	$-0.38	$80,835,271	11 / 13
2026-10-17	$-0.38	$80,835,271	11 / 13
2026-10-18	$-0.38	$80,835,271	11 / 13
2026-10-19	$-0.38	$80,835,271	11 / 13
2026-10-20	$-0.38	$80,835,271	11 / 13
2026-10-21	$-0.38	$80,835,271	11 / 13
2026-10-22	$-0.38	$80,835,271	11 / 13
2026-10-23	$-0.38	$80,835,271	11 / 13
2026-10-24	$-0.38	$80,832,565	11 / 13

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	14	2
2026-06-01	15	2
2026-07-01	15	1
2026-08-01	16	1
2026-09-01	16	2
2026-10-01	15	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 15 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Utilize $100M CHIPS Act funding to accelerate quantum system developmentDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Form new strategic partnerships to advance quantum applicationsQualitative condition
Reduce net losses and improve EPS trajectoryPublished status: Broken
Grow revenue above $30M in FY26Revenue: $3.076M

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-68.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

D-Wave Quantum, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is speculative growth, with the multi-year view tied to quantum-computing development and wider commercial adoption. The thesis is on watch: momentum has improved and the signal has shifted from restrictive to cautious, but recent financial performance remains weak and management execution is described as volatile.

What's priced into D-Wave Quantum, Inc.

The valuation is described as justified, with low fragility, but QBTS carries a large premium versus peers and the valuation model has low confidence. The expectations gap is slightly negative, so the evidence does not point to a clear cushion between expectations and results; optionality, meaning value tied to uncertain future opportunities, is a key valuation driver.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, bookings growth and government funding support the development and partnership plans, but revenue remains modest and was flat year over year in 2026-Q2. The company has recently missed earnings, and a guidance cut on the next call is a stated risk. Over the multi-year view, progress depends on turning partnerships, research funding, and the gate-model roadmap into commercial growth.

What D-Wave Quantum, Inc. hinges on

The thesis hinges on whether bookings convert into revenue and whether the company meets milestones in its gate-model roadmap. A guidance cut would weaken the near-term picture, while lower interest rates or strong results from technology-sector bellwethers could provide a more supportive backdrop. The evidence for how quickly these factors may affect QBTS is limited.