Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
$4.88 → $5.43 · observed estimates
Qnity Electronics (Q)
NYSEInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-10-15
$115.37-3.54%
Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-10-15
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ
A valuation that evolves as the business changes.
A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.
View Living FV report and workflow4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve adjusted free cash flow of $500M to $600M in 2026 | Free cash flow is expected between $500M and $600M. | Under Pressure | adjusted free cash flow falls below $450M in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
$4.88 → $5.43 · observed estimates
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 4, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on consistent revenue and cash flow growth. The current thesis state is neutral, as recent performance has been stable but shows signs of pressure from industry trends.
The market seems to have priced in a low expectations gap, indicating that Q is viewed as relatively cheap compared to its peers. However, there is a premium of 0.61, suggesting some confidence in its ability to perform.
Management is on track to achieve its revenue and cash flow targets for 2026, which supports a stable fundamental outlook. However, there is a moderate risk due to recent industry misses and a history of deep misses for Q.
The thesis hinges on maintaining guidance without cuts, as any reversal could damage credibility. Additionally, favorable movements in interest rates and continued strong performance from sector leaders could provide a boost.
Overall, Q's fundamentals are solid, but the company must navigate near-term risks carefully. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Qnity Electronics's published investment case. The stated target is no further major leadership disruptions; maintain guidance. |
| Intact |
| additional key executive departures or guidance cuts |
0 major departures vs 0 allowed; guidance maintained News shows AI growth and earnings beat. Events confirm CFO hire (neutral) and no key departures or guidance cuts. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain operating margin near 30% in 2025 | Profit margins stay strong near 30%. | Intact | operating margin falls below 28% in FY25 | Operating margin: 19.31% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=30%. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 202619.314206 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Measurement sourceconsolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve revenue of $5.225B to $5.375B in 2026 | A primary condition in Qnity Electronics's published investment case. The stated target is $5.225B - $5.375B. | Intact | revenue falls below $5.0B in FY26 | Revenue: $1.429B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $5.225B - $5.375B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 20261,429,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Measurement sourceconsolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 6ffec67e-83bf-405b-a805-c8103dea0150. Source status: eligible. Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$5.89B → $6.27B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $4.88 | $5,892,721,000 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-25 | $4.88 | $5,892,721,000 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-26 | $4.88 | $5,892,721,000 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-27 | Unavailable | $5,895,393,626 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-07-28 | $4.88 | $5,892,721,000 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-29 | $4.90 | $5,896,966,860 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-07-30 | Unavailable | $5,895,393,626 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | Unavailable | $5,895,393,626 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | Unavailable | $5,895,393,626 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $4.90 | $5,896,966,860 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-03 | $4.90 | $5,896,966,860 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | Unavailable | $5,895,393,626 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | Unavailable | $5,895,393,626 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-06 | $4.91 | $5,968,595,430 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-07 | Unavailable | $6,194,984,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $5.36 | $6,296,310,880 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-09 | Unavailable | $6,194,984,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | Unavailable | $6,194,984,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-12 | $5.36 | $6,296,310,880 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-13 | Unavailable | $6,194,984,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | Unavailable | $6,194,984,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | Unavailable | $6,194,984,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | Unavailable | $6,194,984,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | Unavailable | $6,194,984,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | Unavailable | $6,194,984,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | Unavailable | $6,194,984,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | Unavailable | $6,225,859,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | Unavailable | $6,225,859,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | Unavailable | $6,225,859,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | Unavailable | $6,225,859,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | Unavailable | $6,225,859,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | Unavailable | $6,225,859,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | Unavailable | $6,225,859,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | Unavailable | $6,225,859,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | Unavailable | $6,225,859,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | Unavailable | $6,225,859,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | Unavailable | $6,225,859,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | Unavailable | $6,225,859,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | Unavailable | $6,225,859,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | Unavailable | $6,225,859,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | Unavailable | $6,225,859,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | Unavailable | $6,225,859,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | Unavailable | $6,225,859,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | Unavailable | $6,225,859,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | Unavailable | $6,225,859,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | Unavailable | $6,225,859,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | Unavailable | $6,225,859,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | Unavailable | $6,225,859,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | Unavailable | $6,225,859,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | Unavailable | $6,225,859,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | Unavailable | $6,225,859,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | Unavailable | $6,225,859,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | Unavailable | $6,225,859,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | Unavailable | $6,225,859,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | Unavailable | $6,225,859,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | Unavailable | $6,225,859,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | Unavailable | $6,225,859,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | Unavailable | $6,225,859,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | Unavailable | $6,225,859,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | Unavailable | $6,277,696,286 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | Unavailable | $6,277,696,286 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | Unavailable | $6,277,696,286 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | Unavailable | $6,277,696,286 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | Unavailable | $6,277,696,286 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | Unavailable | $6,277,696,286 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | Unavailable | $6,277,696,286 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | Unavailable | $6,277,696,286 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | Unavailable | $6,277,696,286 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | Unavailable | $6,277,696,286 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | Unavailable | $6,277,696,286 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | Unavailable | $6,277,696,286 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | Unavailable | $6,277,696,286 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | Unavailable | $6,277,696,286 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | Unavailable | $6,277,696,286 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | Unavailable | $6,277,696,286 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | Unavailable | $6,277,696,286 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | Unavailable | $6,277,696,286 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | Unavailable | $6,277,696,286 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | Unavailable | $6,277,696,286 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | Unavailable | $6,277,696,286 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $5.43 | $6,277,696,286 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $5.43 | $6,277,696,286 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $5.43 | $6,272,734,250 | 5 / 7 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.