Quanta Services (PWR)

NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-10-15

$631.86-1.61%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Quanta Services’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

19.67 → 19.73 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 18 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 18 to 18; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Execute $1.0 billion stock repurchase program	It also started a $1 billion stock buyback program.	Intact	Buyback program is canceled or materially reduced	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve EPS of $9.17-$9.87	A primary condition in Quanta Services's published investment case. The stated target is 9.17-9.87 USD_PER_SHARE.	Under Pressure	EPS falls below $8.36 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $2.96 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 9.17-9.87 USD_PER_SHARE. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 20262.96 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 66b083ae-13c7-4db9-abc6-08f75eeaf7c7. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Generate free cash flow of $1.55-$2.05 billion	A supporting condition in Quanta Services's published investment case. The stated target is 1.55-2.05 USD_BILLIONS.	Intact	Free cash flow falls below $1.3 billion in FY26	Free cash flow: $864.489M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 1.55-2.05 USD_BILLIONS. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 2026864,489,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Increase revenue to $34.7-$35.2 billion	A primary condition in Quanta Services's published investment case. The stated target is 34.7-35.2 USD_BILLIONS.	Under Pressure	Revenue falls below $27.8 billion in FY26	Revenue: $9.557B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 34.7-35.2 USD_BILLIONS. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 20269,556,997,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 66b083ae-13c7-4db9-abc6-08f75eeaf7c7. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$19.73

$16.49 → $19.73 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$45.97B

$39.75B → $45.97B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$16.49	$39,747,116,980	24 / 25
2026-07-25	$16.39	$39,749,568,806	17 / 19
2026-07-26	$16.49	$39,747,116,980	24 / 25
2026-07-27	$16.39	$39,749,550,661	17 / 19
2026-07-28	$16.49	$39,747,116,980	24 / 25
2026-07-29	$16.49	$39,747,116,980	24 / 25
2026-07-30	$16.49	$39,747,116,980	24 / 25
2026-07-31	$17.52	$41,781,887,901	17 / 18
2026-08-01	$17.52	$41,781,887,901	17 / 18
2026-08-02	$18.42	$43,539,637,040	25 / 25
2026-08-03	$18.17	$43,260,020,732	17 / 19
2026-08-04	$18.17	$43,260,020,732	17 / 19
2026-08-05	$18.17	$43,260,020,732	17 / 19
2026-08-06	$19.00	$44,589,361,040	25 / 25
2026-08-07	$18.17	$43,260,020,732	17 / 19
2026-08-08	$19.19	$44,701,737,210	25 / 25
2026-08-09	$18.17	$43,260,020,732	17 / 19
2026-08-10	$18.17	$43,260,020,732	17 / 19
2026-08-12	$19.48	$45,128,023,130	25 / 25
2026-08-13	$18.17	$43,260,020,732	17 / 19
2026-08-14	$18.17	$43,260,020,732	17 / 19
2026-08-15	$18.17	$43,260,020,732	17 / 19
2026-08-16	$18.17	$43,260,020,732	17 / 19
2026-08-17	$18.17	$43,260,020,732	17 / 19
2026-08-18	$18.17	$43,260,020,732	17 / 19
2026-08-19	$18.17	$43,260,020,732	17 / 19
2026-08-20	$19.70	$45,962,625,202	17 / 19
2026-08-21	$19.70	$45,962,625,202	17 / 19
2026-08-22	$19.70	$45,962,625,202	17 / 19
2026-08-23	$19.70	$45,962,625,202	17 / 19
2026-08-24	$19.70	$45,962,625,202	17 / 19
2026-08-25	$19.70	$45,962,625,202	17 / 19
2026-08-26	$19.70	$45,962,625,202	17 / 19
2026-08-27	$19.70	$45,962,625,202	17 / 19
2026-08-28	$19.70	$45,962,625,202	17 / 19
2026-08-29	$19.70	$45,962,625,202	17 / 19
2026-08-30	$19.70	$45,962,625,202	17 / 19
2026-08-31	$19.70	$45,962,625,202	17 / 19
2026-09-01	$19.70	$45,962,625,202	17 / 19
2026-09-02	$19.70	$45,962,625,202	17 / 19
2026-09-03	$19.70	$45,962,625,202	17 / 19
2026-09-04	$19.70	$45,962,625,202	17 / 19
2026-09-05	$19.70	$45,962,625,202	17 / 19
2026-09-06	$19.70	$45,962,625,202	17 / 19
2026-09-07	$19.70	$45,962,625,202	17 / 19
2026-09-08	$19.70	$45,962,625,202	17 / 19
2026-09-09	$19.66	$45,902,720,194	18 / 20
2026-09-10	$19.66	$45,902,720,194	18 / 20
2026-09-11	$19.66	$45,902,720,194	18 / 20
2026-09-12	$19.67	$45,906,460,555	18 / 20
2026-09-13	$19.67	$45,906,460,555	18 / 20
2026-09-14	$19.67	$45,906,460,555	18 / 20
2026-09-15	$19.67	$45,906,460,555	18 / 20
2026-09-16	$19.67	$45,906,460,555	18 / 20
2026-09-17	$19.67	$45,906,460,555	18 / 20
2026-09-18	$19.67	$45,906,460,555	18 / 20
2026-09-19	$19.67	$45,906,460,555	18 / 20
2026-09-20	$19.67	$45,906,460,555	19 / 21
2026-09-21	$19.67	$45,906,460,555	19 / 21
2026-09-22	$19.67	$45,906,460,555	19 / 21
2026-09-23	$19.67	$45,906,460,555	19 / 21
2026-09-24	$19.67	$45,906,460,555	19 / 21
2026-09-25	$19.73	$46,007,907,697	19 / 21
2026-09-26	$19.73	$46,007,907,697	19 / 21
2026-09-27	$19.73	$46,007,907,697	19 / 21
2026-09-28	$19.73	$46,007,907,697	19 / 21
2026-09-29	$19.73	$45,974,911,115	19 / 21
2026-09-30	$19.73	$45,974,911,115	19 / 21
2026-10-01	$19.73	$45,974,911,115	19 / 21
2026-10-02	$19.73	$45,974,911,115	19 / 21
2026-10-03	$19.73	$45,974,911,115	19 / 21
2026-10-04	$19.73	$45,974,911,115	19 / 21
2026-10-05	$19.73	$45,974,911,115	19 / 21
2026-10-06	$19.73	$45,974,911,115	19 / 21
2026-10-07	$19.73	$45,974,911,115	19 / 21
2026-10-08	$19.73	$45,974,912,967	19 / 21
2026-10-09	$19.73	$45,974,912,967	19 / 21
2026-10-10	$19.73	$45,974,912,967	19 / 21
2026-10-11	$19.73	$45,974,912,967	19 / 21
2026-10-12	$19.73	$45,974,911,315	19 / 21
2026-10-13	$19.73	$45,974,911,315	19 / 21
2026-10-14	$19.73	$45,974,911,315	18 / 21
2026-10-15	$19.73	$45,974,913,064	18 / 21

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	22	7	2
2026-06-01	22	7	1
2026-07-01	23	8	1
2026-08-01	23	8	1
2026-09-01	25	6	1
2026-10-01	25	5	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 25 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

1 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Mizuho SecuritiesOct 7 · prior Aug 3

$741.00 → $684.00-7.7%

Cantor FitzgeraldOct 5

$862.00New observation · no comparable prior

Piper SandlerSep 28 · prior Sep 8

$731.00 → $714.00-2.3%

BernsteinSep 24 · prior Jul 31

$748.00 → $775.00+3.6%

$0$474.10$948.20

1 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Execute $1.0 billion stock repurchase programDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Achieve EPS of $9.17-$9.87Published status: Under Pressure
Generate free cash flow of $1.55-$2.05 billionFree cash flow: $864.489M
Increase revenue to $34.7-$35.2 billionPublished status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-28.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Quanta Services outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

PWR represents a durable compounder with a focus on revenue and earnings growth. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance and management's commitment to growth, although risks are elevated.

What's priced into Quanta Services

The market currently prices PWR at an expensive valuation compared to its peers, reflecting a stretched expectation. There is a low level of fragility, but the valuation does not fully account for potential weaknesses in the sector.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to remain strong in the near term, driven by management's focus on growth and strategic acquisitions. However, there is a low probability of a miss, though past performance raises caution.

What Quanta Services hinges on

The thesis hinges on sector performance, particularly the results of bellwethers like FIX, EME, and APG. Positive momentum in the sector could support PWR, while any negative guidance from these peers could pose risks.