ProPetro Holding Corp. (PUMP)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-09
$12.22+1.58%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Capital spending of $540M to $610M in 2026: CAPEX $525M vs $540M target.
ProPetro plans to spend $540M to $610M on capital in 2026. It announced a share buyback to return money to shareholders. The company made a deal with Caterpillar to grow its business. These steps could help it recover and grow.
ProPetro is losing money and faces tough market conditions. Its recent capital raise may signal financial stress. The stock has fallen over 30% from its high. These risks could hurt its recovery.
The stock trades about 13% below our fair value near $14. Analysts expect about 15% revenue growth. Our fair value is below the Street median, reflecting cautious views.
Breaks if: CAPEX falls below $540 million in FY26
Breaks if: Buyback program is canceled or paused
Breaks if: Partnership is terminated or fails to grow
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround opportunity in the energy sector. The current thesis state is cautious, as recent financial performance has been weak, but there are signs of potential recovery with management's initiatives.
The market seems to have priced in a low level of fragility, reflecting a justified valuation. However, the expectations gap indicates that investors are not fully anticipating a strong recovery, given the recent earnings miss.
Management's execution on growth priorities shows promise, particularly with the PROPWR power generation platform and expanding completions fleet. However, recent financial performance has been weak, which adds a layer of risk to the near-term outlook.
The future trajectory hinges on management's ability to raise guidance in upcoming quarters, sector momentum from leading companies, and broader economic factors like inflation. These elements could significantly influence PUMP's performance.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. The latest earnings report showed a significant miss. This miss raises concerns about the company's financial performance. Investors are also reacting to geopolitical events affecting crude prices. These events have led to increased capital allocation to upstream oil and gas equities. However, the market views this news as temporary and volatile.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, PUMP's prospects will depend on effective management execution and favorable sector conditions. Not investment advice.