ProPetro Holding Corp. (PUMP)

NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$7.29+0.97%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge ProPetro Holding Corp.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-16.2% · beyond scale

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

0.37 → 0.31 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	335.46M
EPS	—	0.019
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.22B
EPS	—	-0.043
Capital expenditure (PROPWR)	$400M–$450M	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.42B
EPS	—	0.307

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Capital spending of $540M to $610M in 2026	A primary condition in ProPetro Holding Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $540 million.	Broken	CAPEX falls below $540 million in FY26	Capital expenditures: $61.358M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $540 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 202661,358,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Announced share buyback program	It announced a share buyback to return money to shareholders.	Intact	Buyback program is canceled or paused	Buyback program active (qualitative) News questions capital allocation priorities via ESOP, but no explicit cancellation or pause of the buyback program is reported. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Global Framework Agreement with Caterpillar	A supporting condition in ProPetro Holding Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is Partnership remains active and expands.	Intact	Partnership is terminated or fails to grow	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$0.31

$0.41 → $0.31 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$1.42B

$1.44B → $1.42B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$0.41	$1,436,306,820	5 / 6
2026-07-25	$0.41	$1,436,915,310	8 / 8
2026-07-26	$0.41	$1,436,915,310	8 / 8
2026-07-27	$0.41	$1,436,915,310	8 / 8
2026-07-28	$0.41	$1,436,306,820	5 / 6
2026-07-29	$0.41	$1,436,915,310	8 / 8
2026-07-30	$0.41	$1,436,915,310	8 / 8
2026-07-31	$0.43	$1,444,306,820	5 / 6
2026-08-01	$0.43	$1,444,306,820	5 / 6
2026-08-02	$0.29	$1,432,932,060	6 / 8
2026-08-03	$0.46	$1,452,484,598	5 / 6
2026-08-04	$0.46	$1,452,484,598	5 / 6
2026-08-05	$0.40	$1,440,282,060	9 / 8
2026-08-06	$0.46	$1,452,484,598	5 / 6
2026-08-07	$0.40	$1,452,787,039	5 / 6
2026-08-08	$0.40	$1,452,787,039	5 / 6
2026-08-09	$0.42	$1,453,667,440	8 / 8
2026-08-10	$0.42	$1,453,667,440	8 / 8
2026-08-12	$0.40	$1,452,787,039	5 / 6
2026-08-13	$0.40	$1,452,787,039	5 / 6
2026-08-14	$0.40	$1,452,787,039	5 / 6
2026-08-15	$0.40	$1,452,787,039	5 / 6
2026-08-16	$0.40	$1,452,787,039	5 / 6
2026-08-17	$0.40	$1,452,787,039	5 / 6
2026-08-18	$0.40	$1,452,787,039	5 / 6
2026-08-19	$0.40	$1,452,787,039	5 / 6
2026-08-20	$0.40	$1,459,462,928	5 / 6
2026-08-21	$0.37	$1,451,459,690	5 / 6
2026-08-22	Unavailable	$1,451,459,690	4 / 6
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$1,451,459,690	4 / 6
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$1,451,459,690	4 / 6
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$1,451,459,690	4 / 6
2026-08-26	Unavailable	$1,451,459,690	4 / 6
2026-08-27	Unavailable	$1,451,459,690	4 / 6
2026-08-28	Unavailable	$1,451,459,690	4 / 6
2026-08-29	Unavailable	$1,453,459,690	4 / 6
2026-08-30	Unavailable	$1,453,459,690	4 / 6
2026-08-31	Unavailable	$1,453,459,690	4 / 6
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$1,453,459,690	4 / 6
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$1,453,459,690	4 / 6
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$1,453,459,690	4 / 6
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$1,453,459,690	4 / 6
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$1,453,459,690	4 / 6
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$1,453,459,690	4 / 6
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$1,453,459,690	4 / 6
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$1,453,459,690	4 / 6
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$1,453,459,690	4 / 6
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$1,453,459,690	4 / 6
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$1,453,459,690	4 / 6
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$1,453,459,690	4 / 6
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$1,453,459,690	4 / 6
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$1,453,459,690	4 / 6
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$1,456,125,431	4 / 7
2026-09-16	$0.37	$1,456,125,431	5 / 7
2026-09-17	$0.37	$1,456,125,431	5 / 7
2026-09-18	$0.37	$1,456,125,431	5 / 7
2026-09-19	$0.37	$1,456,125,431	5 / 7
2026-09-20	$0.37	$1,442,732,744	5 / 7
2026-09-21	$0.37	$1,442,732,744	5 / 7
2026-09-22	$0.37	$1,442,732,744	5 / 7
2026-09-23	$0.37	$1,442,732,744	5 / 7
2026-09-24	$0.37	$1,442,732,744	5 / 7
2026-09-25	$0.37	$1,442,732,744	5 / 7
2026-09-26	$0.37	$1,442,732,744	5 / 7
2026-09-27	$0.37	$1,442,732,744	5 / 7
2026-09-28	$0.37	$1,442,732,744	5 / 7
2026-09-29	$0.37	$1,442,732,744	5 / 7
2026-09-30	$0.37	$1,442,732,744	5 / 7
2026-10-01	$0.33	$1,432,120,677	5 / 7
2026-10-02	$0.33	$1,432,120,677	6 / 8
2026-10-03	$0.33	$1,432,274,351	6 / 8
2026-10-04	$0.33	$1,431,977,501	6 / 8
2026-10-05	$0.33	$1,431,977,501	6 / 8
2026-10-06	$0.33	$1,431,952,671	6 / 8
2026-10-07	$0.33	$1,431,952,671	6 / 8
2026-10-08	$0.33	$1,431,952,671	6 / 8
2026-10-09	$0.33	$1,431,952,671	6 / 8
2026-10-10	$0.33	$1,431,952,671	6 / 8
2026-10-11	$0.33	$1,431,952,671	6 / 8
2026-10-12	$0.33	$1,431,952,671	6 / 8
2026-10-13	$0.33	$1,431,952,671	6 / 8
2026-10-14	$0.33	$1,431,952,671	6 / 8
2026-10-15	$0.31	$1,427,447,985	6 / 8
2026-10-16	$0.31	$1,427,447,985	6 / 8
2026-10-17	$0.31	$1,427,447,985	6 / 8
2026-10-18	$0.31	$1,427,447,985	6 / 8
2026-10-19	$0.31	$1,427,447,985	6 / 8
2026-10-20	$0.31	$1,427,447,985	6 / 8
2026-10-21	$0.31	$1,427,447,985	6 / 8
2026-10-22	$0.31	$1,417,614,803	6 / 8
2026-10-23	$0.31	$1,417,614,803	7 / 8
2026-10-24	$0.31	$1,417,614,803	7 / 8

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	9	5
2026-06-01	9	3
2026-07-01	9	3
2026-08-01	9	3
2026-09-01	9	5
2026-10-01	9	5

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

BarclaysOct 15 · prior Aug 5

$18.00 → $17.00-5.6%

Morgan StanleyOct 14 · prior Sep 14

$13.00 → $12.00-7.7%

ScotiabankSep 29

$12.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$9.90$19.80

0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Capital spending of $540M to $610M in 2026Published status: Broken
Global Framework Agreement with CaterpillarQualitative condition

Next proof point

Oct 28, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-60.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

ProPetro Holding Corp. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is an execution-dependent growth story in the energy services sector, with a sector tailwind but weak recent financial performance. The thesis is in a watch state: commercial progress is visible, but earnings delivery has not yet caught up.

What's priced into ProPetro Holding Corp.

PUMP screens cheap versus peers, but the valuation evidence also shows a sizeable expectations gap, with medium model confidence. The setup is marked justified rather than fragile, though sector conditions remain turbulent and recent results have been weak.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, results may remain uneven after the July earnings miss and lowered guidance; the industry has a high rate of misses, even though the stated miss risk is low. Over the multi-year view, PROPWR contracts and higher completions utilization show operating progress, but the company remains loss-making and does not report those businesses’ revenue or earnings separately.

What ProPetro Holding Corp. hinges on

A favorable shift would be guidance moving higher next quarter after the earlier cut, alongside continued strength from energy-sector bellwethers. If those peers miss or lower guidance, the sector tailwind could weaken; PUMP also needs growth investment to translate into sustained earnings delivery.