Pattern Group Inc (PTRN)

NASDAQInformation TechnologyAdvertising AgenciesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$16.19-2.06%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Pattern Group Inc’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q3
Revenue	$840M–$860M	—
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	939.6M
EPS	—	0.144
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$3.42B–$3.46B	3.44B
EPS	—	0.609
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	4.28B
EPS	—	0.757

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Adjusted EBITDA growth of 30% to 32% for fiscal 2026	Profit margins are improving with adjusted EBITDA growth near 30%.	Intact	Adjusted EBITDA growth falls below 25% in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA grew from approximately $35 million in 2025-Q2 to $54 million in 2026-Q2, a 54% increase. Full year 2026 guidance targets $211 million to $213 million, a 38% to 40% growth year over year. The trajectory is delivering strong EBITDA growth consistent with stated goals. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue growth of 32% to 33% for fiscal 2026	A primary condition in Pattern Group Inc's published investment case. The stated target is 32% to 33% YoY growth.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 25% in FY26	Revenue growth: 46.58% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 32% to 33% YoY growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 202646.580791 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 6caa485a-6ad0-4838-8cd1-ed18417b5168. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Share repurchase program of up to $100 million	The company is buying back shares with a $100 million program.	Intact	Share repurchase program is cancelled or significantly reduced	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue$4.28B

$4.09B → $4.28B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$4,094,702,313	3 / 6
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$4,094,702,313	3 / 6
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$4,094,649,300	3 / 8
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$4,094,649,300	3 / 8
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$4,094,649,300	3 / 8
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$4,094,649,300	3 / 8
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$4,094,649,300	3 / 8
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$4,094,700,750	3 / 6
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$4,094,700,750	3 / 6
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$4,094,649,300	3 / 8
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$4,094,700,750	3 / 6
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$4,094,700,750	3 / 6
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$4,094,700,750	3 / 6
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$4,094,649,300	4 / 8
2026-08-07	Unavailable	$4,233,206,471	4 / 6
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$4,233,206,471	4 / 6
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$4,233,206,471	4 / 6
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$4,233,191,660	4 / 8
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$4,233,206,471	4 / 6
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$4,233,206,471	4 / 6
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$4,233,206,471	4 / 6
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$4,233,206,471	4 / 6
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$4,233,206,471	3 / 6
2026-08-17	Unavailable	$4,233,206,471	3 / 6
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$4,233,206,471	3 / 6
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$4,233,206,471	3 / 6
2026-08-20	Unavailable	$4,284,679,911	3 / 6
2026-08-21	Unavailable	$4,284,679,911	3 / 6
2026-08-22	Unavailable	$4,284,679,911	3 / 6
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$4,284,679,911	3 / 6
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$4,284,679,911	3 / 6
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$4,284,679,911	3 / 6
2026-08-26	Unavailable	$4,284,679,911	3 / 6
2026-08-27	Unavailable	$4,284,679,911	3 / 6
2026-08-28	Unavailable	$4,284,679,911	3 / 6
2026-08-29	Unavailable	$4,284,679,911	3 / 6
2026-08-30	Unavailable	$4,284,679,911	3 / 6
2026-08-31	Unavailable	$4,284,679,911	3 / 6
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$4,284,679,911	3 / 6
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$4,284,679,911	3 / 6
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$4,284,679,911	3 / 6
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$4,284,679,911	3 / 6
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$4,284,679,911	3 / 6
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$4,284,679,911	3 / 6
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$4,284,679,911	3 / 6
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$4,284,679,911	3 / 6
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$4,284,679,911	3 / 6
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$4,284,679,911	3 / 6
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$4,284,679,911	3 / 6
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$4,284,679,911	3 / 6
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$4,284,679,911	3 / 6
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$4,284,679,911	3 / 6
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$4,284,679,911	3 / 6
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$4,284,679,911	3 / 6
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$4,284,679,911	3 / 6
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$4,284,679,911	3 / 6
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$4,284,679,911	3 / 6
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$4,284,679,911	3 / 6
2026-09-21	Unavailable	$4,284,679,911	3 / 6
2026-09-22	Unavailable	$4,284,679,911	3 / 6
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$4,284,679,911	3 / 6
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$4,284,679,911	3 / 6
2026-09-25	Unavailable	$4,284,679,911	3 / 6
2026-09-26	Unavailable	$4,284,679,911	3 / 6
2026-09-27	Unavailable	$4,284,679,911	3 / 6
2026-09-28	Unavailable	$4,284,679,911	3 / 6
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$4,284,679,911	3 / 6
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$4,284,679,911	3 / 6
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$4,284,679,911	3 / 6
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$4,284,679,911	3 / 6
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$4,284,679,911	3 / 6
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$4,284,679,911	3 / 6
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$4,284,679,911	3 / 6
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$4,284,679,911	3 / 6
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$4,284,679,911	3 / 6
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$4,284,679,911	3 / 6
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$4,284,679,911	3 / 6
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$4,284,679,911	3 / 6
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$4,284,679,911	3 / 6
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$4,284,679,911	3 / 6
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$4,284,679,911	3 / 6
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$4,284,679,911	3 / 6
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$4,284,679,911	3 / 6
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$4,284,679,911	3 / 6
2026-10-17	Unavailable	$4,284,679,911	3 / 6
2026-10-18	Unavailable	$4,284,679,911	3 / 6
2026-10-19	Unavailable	$4,284,679,911	3 / 6
2026-10-20	Unavailable	$4,284,679,911	3 / 6
2026-10-21	Unavailable	$4,284,679,911	3 / 6
2026-10-22	Unavailable	$4,284,679,911	3 / 6
2026-10-23	Unavailable	$4,284,679,911	3 / 6
2026-10-24	Unavailable	$4,284,679,911	3 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	10	0
2026-06-01	10	0
2026-07-01	9	1
2026-08-01	8	1
2026-09-01	8	1
2026-10-01	8	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Adjusted EBITDA growth of 30% to 32% for fiscal 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Revenue growth of 32% to 33% for fiscal 2026Revenue growth: 46.58%
Share repurchase program of up to $100 millionDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-47.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Pattern Group Inc outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

PTRN is a high-growth, loss-making Tech business rather than a mature compounder. Its long-term thesis is intact, with management priorities on revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and revenue diversification all on track.

What's priced into Pattern Group Inc

The valuation evidence is mixed: PTRN is tagged as cheap versus peers, while a separate measure shows a 24% premium to peers and the model has low confidence. The expectations gap is negative, and priced-in fragility is low, so the snapshot does not show a clear case that expectations are unusually fragile.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, recent results and execution are supportive: revenue rose 47% year over year in 2026 Q2, and adjusted EBITDA rose 54%; full-year guidance calls for 37% to 38% revenue growth and 38% to 40% adjusted EBITDA growth. International and non-Amazon revenue are also expanding quickly, but the company remains loss-making by the evidence snapshot and overall risk has risen, including market risk.

What Pattern Group Inc hinges on

The multi-year view depends on sustaining growth and delivering the raised 2026 guidance; a guidance cut after the recent increase would damage management credibility. Near-term conditions could also be helped by Fed rate cuts or continued earnings strength from sector bellwether LFTO, while the snapshot gives limited detail on how these factors would affect PTRN’s business itself.