Privia Health Group, Inc. (PRVA)

NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Healthcare Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$22.41-2.10%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Privia Health Group, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

0.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

0.42 → 0.42 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 9 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	609.27M
EPS	—	0.084
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	2.46B
EPS	—	0.258
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	2.68B
EPS	—	0.417

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Operating income improves by at least 15% annually	A primary condition in Privia Health Group, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=15% YoY.	Intact	Operating income growth falls below 15% in FY26	Operating income growth: 252.91% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=15% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 2026252.907674 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: bcae7192-3ded-47bf-9cae-2471ef5953b9. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue grows at least 12% annually	A primary condition in Privia Health Group, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=12% YoY.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 12% in FY26	Revenue growth: 21.39% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=12% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 202621.390455 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: bcae7192-3ded-47bf-9cae-2471ef5953b9. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Revenue grew from $521.2M in 2025-Q2 to $632.6M in 2026-Q2 (+21.4% YoY). Full-year 2026 revenue guidance was raised to $2.35-$2.45B, reflecting management's delivery on growth targets and continued momentum. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue reaches ~$3.15 billion in 2025	A supporting condition in Privia Health Group, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~$3.15B.	Intact	Revenue guidance falls below $3.0B for 2025	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Revenue grew from $521.2M in 2025-Q2 to $632.6M in 2026-Q2 (+21.4% YoY). Full-year 2026 revenue guidance was raised to $2.35-$2.45B, reflecting management's delivery on growth targets and continued momentum. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$0.42

$1.10 → $0.42 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$2.68B

$2.67B → $2.68B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$1.10	$2,665,354,970	11 / 15
2026-07-25	$1.10	$2,665,354,970	11 / 15
2026-07-26	$1.10	$2,665,354,970	11 / 15
2026-07-27	$0.41	$2,663,396,937	9 / 11
2026-07-28	$1.10	$2,665,354,970	11 / 15
2026-07-29	$1.10	$2,665,354,970	11 / 15
2026-07-30	$0.41	$2,663,396,937	9 / 11
2026-07-31	$1.10	$2,665,354,970	11 / 15
2026-08-01	$0.41	$2,663,396,937	9 / 11
2026-08-02	$1.10	$2,665,354,970	11 / 15
2026-08-03	$0.41	$2,663,396,937	9 / 11
2026-08-04	$0.41	$2,663,396,937	9 / 11
2026-08-05	$0.41	$2,663,396,937	9 / 11
2026-08-06	$0.41	$2,663,396,937	9 / 11
2026-08-07	$0.41	$2,656,692,828	9 / 11
2026-08-08	$1.11	$2,689,823,440	11 / 15
2026-08-09	$1.11	$2,689,823,440	11 / 15
2026-08-10	$1.11	$2,689,823,440	11 / 15
2026-08-12	$1.06	$2,703,086,000	11 / 14
2026-08-13	$0.41	$2,656,692,828	9 / 11
2026-08-14	$0.41	$2,656,692,828	9 / 11
2026-08-15	$0.41	$2,656,692,828	9 / 10
2026-08-16	$0.41	$2,656,692,828	9 / 10
2026-08-17	$0.41	$2,656,692,828	9 / 10
2026-08-18	$0.41	$2,656,692,828	9 / 11
2026-08-19	$0.41	$2,656,692,828	9 / 11
2026-08-20	$0.41	$2,681,494,849	9 / 11
2026-08-21	$0.41	$2,681,494,849	9 / 11
2026-08-22	$0.41	$2,681,494,849	9 / 11
2026-08-23	$0.41	$2,681,494,849	9 / 11
2026-08-24	$0.41	$2,681,494,849	9 / 11
2026-08-25	$0.41	$2,681,494,849	9 / 11
2026-08-26	$0.41	$2,681,494,849	9 / 11
2026-08-27	$0.41	$2,681,494,849	9 / 11
2026-08-28	$0.41	$2,681,494,849	9 / 11
2026-08-29	$0.42	$2,681,494,849	9 / 11
2026-08-30	$0.42	$2,681,494,849	9 / 11
2026-08-31	$0.42	$2,681,494,849	9 / 11
2026-09-01	$0.42	$2,681,494,849	9 / 11
2026-09-02	$0.42	$2,681,494,849	9 / 11
2026-09-03	$0.42	$2,681,494,849	9 / 11
2026-09-04	$0.42	$2,681,494,849	9 / 11
2026-09-05	$0.42	$2,681,494,849	9 / 11
2026-09-06	$0.42	$2,681,494,849	9 / 11
2026-09-07	$0.42	$2,681,494,849	9 / 11
2026-09-08	$0.42	$2,681,494,849	9 / 11
2026-09-09	$0.42	$2,681,494,849	9 / 11
2026-09-10	$0.42	$2,681,494,849	9 / 11
2026-09-11	$0.42	$2,681,494,849	9 / 11
2026-09-12	$0.42	$2,681,494,849	9 / 11
2026-09-13	$0.42	$2,681,494,849	9 / 11
2026-09-14	$0.42	$2,681,494,849	9 / 11
2026-09-15	$0.42	$2,681,494,849	9 / 11
2026-09-16	$0.42	$2,681,494,849	9 / 11
2026-09-17	$0.42	$2,681,494,849	9 / 11
2026-09-18	$0.42	$2,681,494,849	9 / 11
2026-09-19	$0.42	$2,681,494,849	9 / 11
2026-09-20	$0.42	$2,681,494,849	9 / 11
2026-09-21	$0.42	$2,681,494,849	9 / 11
2026-09-22	$0.42	$2,681,494,849	9 / 11
2026-09-23	$0.42	$2,681,494,849	9 / 11
2026-09-24	$0.42	$2,681,494,849	9 / 11
2026-09-25	$0.42	$2,681,494,849	9 / 11
2026-09-26	$0.42	$2,681,494,849	9 / 11
2026-09-27	$0.42	$2,681,494,849	9 / 10
2026-09-28	$0.42	$2,681,494,849	9 / 10
2026-09-29	$0.42	$2,679,301,776	9 / 10
2026-09-30	$0.42	$2,679,301,776	9 / 10
2026-10-01	$0.42	$2,679,301,776	9 / 10
2026-10-02	$0.42	$2,679,301,776	9 / 10
2026-10-03	$0.42	$2,679,301,776	9 / 10
2026-10-04	$0.42	$2,679,301,776	9 / 10
2026-10-05	$0.42	$2,679,301,776	9 / 10
2026-10-06	$0.42	$2,680,684,129	9 / 10
2026-10-07	$0.42	$2,680,686,776	9 / 10
2026-10-08	$0.42	$2,680,686,776	9 / 10
2026-10-09	$0.42	$2,680,686,776	9 / 10
2026-10-10	$0.42	$2,680,686,776	9 / 10
2026-10-11	$0.42	$2,680,686,776	9 / 10
2026-10-12	$0.42	$2,680,686,776	9 / 10
2026-10-13	$0.42	$2,680,671,476	9 / 10
2026-10-14	$0.42	$2,680,671,476	9 / 10
2026-10-15	$0.42	$2,680,671,476	9 / 10
2026-10-16	$0.42	$2,680,671,476	9 / 10
2026-10-17	$0.42	$2,680,671,476	9 / 10
2026-10-18	$0.42	$2,680,671,476	9 / 10
2026-10-19	$0.42	$2,680,671,476	9 / 10
2026-10-20	$0.42	$2,680,671,476	9 / 10
2026-10-21	$0.42	$2,680,671,476	9 / 10
2026-10-22	$0.42	$2,680,671,476	9 / 10
2026-10-23	$0.42	$2,680,671,476	9 / 10
2026-10-24	$0.42	$2,680,671,476	9 / 10

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	19	2
2026-06-01	19	2
2026-07-01	18	2
2026-08-01	18	2
2026-09-01	18	1
2026-10-01	17	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 17 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Operating income improves by at least 15% annuallyOperating income growth: 252.91%
Revenue grows at least 12% annuallyRevenue growth: 21.39%
Revenue reaches ~$3.15 billion in 2025Direct metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-32.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Privia Health Group, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a growth-oriented healthcare business with a sector tailwind, rather than a proven durable compounder. The long-term thesis is intact, though the signal has shifted from mildly favorable to mixed and recent earnings misses temper the strong reported results.

What's priced into Privia Health Group, Inc.

PRVA trades at a sizable premium to peers, supported by an expectation that its growth can endure. The expectations gap is elevated, while the evidence flags the premium as hard to justify given expensive valuation and weak execution quality.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term results show strong revenue growth and improving operating income and Adjusted EBITDA, and management has raised full-year 2026 guidance. Cash generation is less consistent, and the run of earnings misses makes guidance delivery an important near-term test.

What Privia Health Group, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on continued revenue growth, margin improvement, and steadier cash conversion. A guidance reversal after the recent increase would damage credibility, while weakening jobs data could weigh on cyclical healthcare names; continued strength from sector peers would support the backdrop.