Primoris Services Corporation (PRIM)

NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-10-23

$65.03-2.85%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Primoris Services Corporation’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

5.21 → 5.22 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 10 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	2B
EPS	—	1.001
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	About $2.1B	7.26B
EPS	$1.3–$1.85	2.137
Gross margin	10%–12%	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	8.09B
EPS	—	5.22

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain quarterly dividend at $0.08 per share	The company keeps paying a stable $0.08 dividend per share.	Intact	dividend cut or suspension	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. The Board consistently declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.08 per share from 2025-Q3 through 2026-Q2. This reflects a stable capital allocation policy with no changes in dividend amount. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Grow backlog and secure new awards in Energy segment	It won $2 billion in new Energy segment awards in Q2 2026.	Intact	Energy backlog falls below $4.7B or new awards drop sharply	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Total backlog grew from $11.9 billion at 2025 year end to $13.9 billion at 2026-Q2, driven by Energy backlog growth from $5.5 billion to $6.2 billion. The Company secured approximately $2.0 billion in new Energy segment awards in 2026-Q2. The trajectory shows backlog growth and new awards consistent with management's stated focus. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Complete six renewables projects with improved execution	Primoris is fixing delays in six renewables projects, aiming for $2.1 billion revenue in 2026.	Under Pressure	any project delays extend beyond Q4 2026 or cost overruns worsen	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management has consistently highlighted progress on six challenging renewables projects, with two substantially complete by 2026-Q2 and others expected by 2026-Q4. Renewables revenue guidance declined from approximately $3.0 billion in 2025 to $2.1 billion in 2026, reflecting project delays and cost overruns. The trajectory shows active management and partial delivery but ongoing challenges remain. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Manage SG&A expenses to mid-to-high 5% of revenue	A supporting condition in Primoris Services Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is SG&A expense between 5% and 6% of revenue.	Under Pressure	SG&A expense exceeds 6% of revenue for multiple quarters	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. SG&A expense as a percentage of revenue increased to 6.3% in 2026-Q2 from 5.5% in 2025-Q2, slightly above the targeted mid-to-high 5% range. Management reiterated the target for full year 2026, indicating ongoing focus but with some recent upward pressure. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$5.22

$5.40 → $5.22 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$8.09B

$8.21B → $8.09B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$5.40	$8,214,006,170	13 / 14
2026-07-25	$5.40	$8,214,006,170	13 / 14
2026-07-26	$5.40	$8,214,006,170	13 / 14
2026-07-27	$5.40	$8,214,006,170	13 / 14
2026-07-28	$5.40	$8,214,006,170	13 / 14
2026-07-29	$5.44	$8,228,445,908	9 / 11
2026-07-30	$5.44	$8,228,445,908	9 / 11
2026-07-31	$5.44	$8,228,445,908	9 / 11
2026-08-01	$5.44	$8,228,445,908	9 / 11
2026-08-02	$5.44	$8,228,445,908	9 / 11
2026-08-03	$5.44	$8,228,445,908	9 / 11
2026-08-04	$5.44	$8,228,445,908	9 / 11
2026-08-05	$5.44	$8,228,445,908	9 / 11
2026-08-06	$5.40	$8,214,006,170	13 / 14
2026-08-07	$5.44	$8,260,123,298	9 / 11
2026-08-08	$5.44	$8,260,123,298	9 / 11
2026-08-09	$5.30	$8,129,867,150	13 / 14
2026-08-10	$5.30	$8,129,867,150	13 / 14
2026-08-12	$5.21	$8,072,026,840	13 / 14
2026-08-13	$5.44	$8,260,123,298	9 / 11
2026-08-14	$5.44	$8,260,123,298	9 / 11
2026-08-15	$5.44	$8,260,123,298	9 / 11
2026-08-16	$5.44	$8,260,123,298	9 / 11
2026-08-17	$5.44	$8,260,123,298	9 / 11
2026-08-18	$5.44	$8,260,123,298	9 / 11
2026-08-19	$5.44	$8,260,123,298	9 / 11
2026-08-20	$5.28	$8,143,299,552	9 / 11
2026-08-21	$5.28	$8,143,299,552	9 / 11
2026-08-22	$5.28	$8,143,299,552	9 / 11
2026-08-23	$5.28	$8,143,299,552	9 / 11
2026-08-24	$5.28	$8,143,299,552	9 / 11
2026-08-25	$5.28	$8,143,299,552	9 / 11
2026-08-26	$5.28	$8,143,299,552	9 / 11
2026-08-27	$5.28	$8,143,299,552	9 / 11
2026-08-28	$5.28	$8,143,299,552	9 / 11
2026-08-29	$5.20	$8,091,412,856	9 / 11
2026-08-30	$5.20	$8,091,412,856	9 / 11
2026-08-31	$5.20	$8,091,412,856	9 / 11
2026-09-01	$5.20	$8,091,412,856	9 / 11
2026-09-02	$5.20	$8,091,412,856	9 / 11
2026-09-03	$5.20	$8,091,412,856	9 / 11
2026-09-04	$5.20	$8,091,412,856	9 / 11
2026-09-05	$5.20	$8,091,412,856	9 / 11
2026-09-06	$5.20	$8,091,412,856	9 / 11
2026-09-07	$5.20	$8,091,412,856	9 / 11
2026-09-08	$5.20	$8,091,412,856	9 / 11
2026-09-09	$5.21	$8,101,449,552	10 / 12
2026-09-10	$5.21	$8,101,449,552	10 / 12
2026-09-11	$5.21	$8,101,449,552	10 / 12
2026-09-12	$5.21	$8,101,449,552	10 / 12
2026-09-13	$5.21	$8,101,449,552	10 / 12
2026-09-14	$5.21	$8,101,449,552	10 / 12
2026-09-15	$5.21	$8,101,449,552	10 / 12
2026-09-16	$5.21	$8,101,449,552	10 / 12
2026-09-17	$5.21	$8,101,449,552	10 / 12
2026-09-18	$5.21	$8,101,449,552	10 / 12
2026-09-19	$5.21	$8,101,449,552	10 / 12
2026-09-20	$5.21	$8,101,449,552	10 / 12
2026-09-21	$5.21	$8,101,449,552	10 / 12
2026-09-22	$5.21	$8,101,449,552	10 / 12
2026-09-23	$5.21	$8,101,449,552	10 / 12
2026-09-24	$5.21	$8,101,449,552	10 / 12
2026-09-25	$5.21	$8,101,449,552	10 / 12
2026-09-26	$5.21	$8,101,449,552	10 / 12
2026-09-27	$5.21	$8,101,449,552	10 / 12
2026-09-28	$5.21	$8,101,449,552	10 / 12
2026-09-29	$5.24	$8,101,449,552	10 / 12
2026-09-30	$5.24	$8,101,449,552	10 / 12
2026-10-01	$5.24	$8,101,449,552	10 / 12
2026-10-02	$5.24	$8,101,449,552	10 / 12
2026-10-03	$5.24	$8,101,449,552	10 / 12
2026-10-04	$5.24	$8,101,449,552	10 / 12
2026-10-05	$5.24	$8,101,462,052	10 / 12
2026-10-06	$5.24	$8,101,462,052	10 / 12
2026-10-07	$5.24	$8,101,462,052	10 / 12
2026-10-08	$5.24	$8,101,462,052	10 / 12
2026-10-09	$5.25	$8,101,481,762	10 / 12
2026-10-10	$5.25	$8,101,481,762	10 / 12
2026-10-11	$5.24	$8,101,481,762	10 / 12
2026-10-12	$5.24	$8,101,481,762	10 / 12
2026-10-13	$5.24	$8,101,481,762	10 / 12
2026-10-14	$5.23	$8,101,481,762	10 / 12
2026-10-15	$5.23	$8,101,481,762	10 / 12
2026-10-16	$5.22	$8,092,613,012	10 / 12
2026-10-17	$5.22	$8,092,613,012	10 / 12
2026-10-18	$5.22	$8,092,613,012	10 / 12
2026-10-19	$5.22	$8,092,613,012	10 / 12
2026-10-20	$5.22	$8,092,585,156	10 / 12
2026-10-21	$5.22	$8,092,585,156	10 / 12
2026-10-22	$5.22	$8,092,585,156	10 / 12
2026-10-23	$5.22	$8,092,585,156	10 / 12
2026-10-24	$5.22	$8,092,585,156	10 / 12

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	10	4	1
2026-06-01	11	5	1
2026-07-01	11	4	0
2026-08-01	11	4	0
2026-09-01	11	5	0
2026-10-01	11	5	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

JefferiesOct 8

$99.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$54.45$108.90

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain quarterly dividend at $0.08 per shareDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Grow backlog and secure new awards in Energy segmentDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Complete six renewables projects with improved executionPublished status: Under Pressure
Manage SG&A expenses to mid-to-high 5% of revenuePublished status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-68.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Primoris Services Corporation outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

PRIM is an execution-sensitive industrial contractor, with a multi-year view tied to project delivery and Energy awards. Its thesis state is watch: the signal has improved from mixed to mildly favorable, but recent financial performance remains below its industry cohort.

What's priced into Primoris Services Corporation

The valuation evidence points to PRIM being cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations are cautious. The priced-in assessment says fragility is low and the valuation is considered justified, rather than showing a full mix of expensive valuation, weak execution, and turbulence.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, management is making progress on difficult renewables projects, with two substantially complete by 2026-Q2, but delays and cost overruns lowered renewables revenue guidance for 2026. Energy backlog and new awards grew through 2026-Q2, while earnings results have recently included reported beats; however, earnings surprises have been erratic and trending down.

What Primoris Services Corporation hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on completing the remaining challenging renewables work and continuing to grow Energy backlog through new awards. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; continued strong results and higher guidance from sector bellwethers PWR, FIX, and EME would support the sector backdrop, while weaker results could remove that support.